NESSA Team Racing Championship (Presidents Trophy)

HostNESSA
Date05/06/2023
TypeDistrict Championship
Boat420E
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Brunswick School	Bruins	17–3
2	The Hotchkiss School	Bearcats	13–7
3	St. George's School	Dragons	13–7
4	Tabor Academy	Seawolves	10–10
5	Greenwich High School	Cardinals	5–9
6	Barrington High School	Eagles	4–10
7	Greenwich Academy	Gator	3–11
8	Milton Academy	Mustangs	3–11

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 9,849 team race matches sailed before 2023-05-06, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 46 of 68 matches (68%) with a log-loss of 0.517 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.12 ± 0.30: a typical event, more orderly than 49% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Brunswick School Bruins	3	8.07 school +0.16	Sebastian Sheppard / Wills Gandy 3.04 Ben Sheppard / Henry Ginnel 2.27 15–3 Thomas Whidden / Greer Sconzo 2.41 13–3 Robert Ulmer / Alex Ohls 2.66 6–0	64%	17–3 (85%)	+4.3
2	The Hotchkiss School Bearcats	2	8.14 school +0.06	Pierce Olsen / Phoebe Hackett Fynn Olsen / Kate Moran Samara Walshe / Lucy Jervis 3.02	66%	13–7 (65%)	−0.1
3	St. George's School Dragons	1	8.47 school +0.44	Christian Ebbin / Grace Patterson 2.75 Dylan Balunas / Max Miller Pearse Dowd / Phoebe Fogarty	73%	13–7 (65%)	−1.6
4	Tabor Academy Seawolves	4	7.24 school +0.24	Wyatt Bischoff / Elizabeth Elkinson 2.52 Griffin Beaulieu / Fiona Hoben 1.83 Jonnie Ciffolillo / Theo Binder 2.52	48%	10–10 (50%)	+0.4
5	Greenwich High School Cardinals	5	6.68 school +0.65	Elle Sykes / Marcos Rotella Richard Sykes / Michael Donovan Martha Schuessler / Annabelle Elkin 2–6 Luca Larosa / Mollie Wood 3–3	44%	5–9 (36%)	−1.2
6	Barrington High School Eagles	7	5.86 school −0.24	Gus Macaulay / Quin Schneider 2.14 Christopher Chwalk / Avery Guck 1.82 Brendan Jay / George White 1.98 2–10 Brendan Jay / Lauren Leonard 1.98 2–0	29%	4–10 (29%)	−0.1
7	Greenwich Academy Gator	6	5.89 school +0.30	Callie Hammond / Grayson Stengel 1.78 Kit Harned / Katheryn Mcgranahan 1.36 2–8 Helena Borcherding / Saanvi Gupta 2–8 Chang Tatum / Kit Harned 1.47 1–3 Helena Borcherding / Honour Russell 1–3	29%	3–11 (21%)	−1.1
8	Milton Academy Mustangs	8	5.62 school +0.42	Ryan Mcgauley / Tallulah Doeringer 2.35 Emma Wang / William Bourell 1.46 Jackie Ruggieri / Eliot Hack 1.08	26%	3–11 (21%)	−0.6

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Brunswick School	8.07	9.76	17–3	12.7	+1.69	3.7	2%
4	Tabor Academy	7.24	7.37	10–10	9.6	+0.13	0.0	51%
2	The Hotchkiss School	8.14	8.10	13–7	13.1	−0.04	0.0	63%
6	Barrington High School	5.86	5.81	4–10	4.1	−0.05	0.0	63%
8	Milton Academy	5.62	5.28	3–11	3.6	−0.34	0.1	75%
3	St. George's School	8.47	7.96	13–7	14.6	−0.51	0.5	86%
5	Greenwich High School	6.68	6.13	5–9	6.2	−0.54	0.4	84%
7	Greenwich Academy	5.89	5.28	3–11	4.1	−0.61	0.4	85%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Sebastian Sheppard	Brunswick School	3.04	4.73	17–3	12.7	+1.69	3.7	2%
Luca Larosa	Greenwich High School	1.49	1.26	3–3	3.2	−0.22	0.0	74%
Jackie Ruggieri	Milton Academy	1.08	0.74	3–11	3.6	−0.34	0.1	75%
Chang Tatum	Greenwich Academy	1.47	0.43	1–3	1.7	−1.04	0.4	89%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Greenwich Academy	Tabor Academy	25%	upset
1	2	Brunswick School	Barrington High School	85%
1	3	The Hotchkiss School	Milton Academy	89%
1	4	St. George's School	Greenwich High School	82%
1	5	Brunswick School	Tabor Academy	64%
1	6	The Hotchkiss School	Greenwich Academy	85%
1	7	Greenwich High School	Barrington High School	65%
1	8	St. George's School	Milton Academy	90%
1	9	The Hotchkiss School	Brunswick School	52%
1	10	Tabor Academy	Greenwich High School	64%
1	11	Milton Academy	Greenwich Academy	44%	upset
1	12	St. George's School	Barrington High School	88%
1	13	The Hotchkiss School	Greenwich High School	74%
1	14	Brunswick School	Milton Academy	89%
1	15	Tabor Academy	Barrington High School	74%
1	16	St. George's School	Greenwich Academy	88%
1	17	Greenwich High School	Milton Academy	68%
1	18	The Hotchkiss School	Barrington High School	85%
1	19	Brunswick School	Greenwich Academy	87%
1	20	Tabor Academy	St. George's School	28%	upset
1	21	Milton Academy	Barrington High School	45%	upset
1	22	Greenwich High School	Greenwich Academy	67%
1	23	The Hotchkiss School	Tabor Academy	67%
1	24	Brunswick School	St. George's School	41%	upset
1	25	Barrington High School	Greenwich Academy	48%	upset
1	26	Tabor Academy	Milton Academy	77%
1	27	Brunswick School	Greenwich High School	78%
1	28	St. George's School	The Hotchkiss School	56%
2	29	Tabor Academy	Greenwich Academy	74%
2	30	Brunswick School	Barrington High School	84%
2	31	The Hotchkiss School	Milton Academy	87%
2	32	St. George's School	Greenwich High School	80%
2	33	Tabor Academy	Brunswick School	36%	upset
2	34	The Hotchkiss School	Greenwich Academy	85%
2	35	Barrington High School	Greenwich High School	31%	upset
2	36	St. George's School	Milton Academy	90%
2	37	The Hotchkiss School	Brunswick School	53%
2	38	Greenwich High School	Tabor Academy	40%	upset
2	39	Greenwich Academy	Milton Academy	54%
2	40	St. George's School	Barrington High School	88%
2	41	Greenwich High School	The Hotchkiss School	28%	upset
2	42	Brunswick School	Milton Academy	88%
2	43	Tabor Academy	Barrington High School	74%
2	44	St. George's School	Greenwich Academy	88%
2	45	Milton Academy	Greenwich High School	31%	upset
2	46	The Hotchkiss School	Barrington High School	85%
2	47	Brunswick School	Greenwich Academy	87%
2	48	St. George's School	Tabor Academy	73%
2	49	Barrington High School	Milton Academy	54%
2	50	Greenwich Academy	Greenwich High School	32%	upset
2	51	Tabor Academy	The Hotchkiss School	33%	upset
2	52	Brunswick School	St. George's School	39%	upset
2	53	Barrington High School	Greenwich Academy	48%	upset
2	54	Tabor Academy	Milton Academy	76%
2	55	Brunswick School	Greenwich High School	76%
2	56	The Hotchkiss School	St. George's School	43%	upset
3	57	Brunswick School	St. George's School	39%	upset
3	58	Tabor Academy	The Hotchkiss School	33%	upset
3	59	Brunswick School	Tabor Academy	64%
3	60	The Hotchkiss School	St. George's School	43%	upset
3	61	St. George's School	Tabor Academy	73%
3	62	Brunswick School	The Hotchkiss School	47%	upset
4	63	Brunswick School	St. George's School	39%	upset
4	64	The Hotchkiss School	Tabor Academy	67%
4	65	Brunswick School	Tabor Academy	64%
4	66	St. George's School	The Hotchkiss School	58%
4	67	St. George's School	Tabor Academy	74%
4	68	Brunswick School	The Hotchkiss School	46%	upset

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Gator	1-2-6	def.	Seawolves	3-4-5
2	Bruins	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
3	Bearcats	1-2-5	def.	Mustangs	3-4-6
4	Dragons	2-3-4	def.	Cardinals	1-5-6
5	Bruins	1-3-6	def.	Seawolves	2-4-5
6	Bearcats	1-2-4	def.	Gator	3-5-6
7	Cardinals	1-4-5	def.	Eagles	2-3-6
8	Dragons	1-2-5	def.	Mustangs	3-4-6
9	Bearcats	1-2-6	def.	Bruins	3-4-5
10	Seawolves	1-2-5	def.	Cardinals	3-4-6
11	Mustangs	1-2-5	def.	Gator	3-4-6
12	Dragons	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
13	Bearcats	1-2-6	def.	Cardinals	3-4-5
14	Bruins	1-2-4	def.	Mustangs	3-5-6
15	Seawolves	1-3-4	def.	Eagles	2-5-6
16	Dragons	1-4-5	def.	Gator	2-3-6
17	Cardinals	1-4-5	def.	Mustangs	2-3-6
18	Bearcats	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
19	Bruins	1-2-4	def.	Gator	3-5-6
20	Seawolves	2-3-5	def.	Dragons	1-4-6
21	Mustangs	2-3-5	def.	Eagles	1-4-6
22	Cardinals	1-4-5	def.	Gator	2-3-6
23	Bearcats	1-3-6	def.	Seawolves	2-4-5
24	Bruins	1-2-3	def.	Dragons	4-5-6
25	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Gator	4-5-6
26	Seawolves	1-2-4	def.	Mustangs	3-5-6
27	Bruins	1-2-5	def.	Cardinals	3-4-6
28	Dragons	1-2-6	def.	Bearcats	3-4-5
29	Seawolves	1-2-5	def.	Gator	3-4-6
30	Bruins	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
31	Bearcats	2-3-4	def.	Mustangs	1-5-6
32	Dragons	1-3-4	def.	Cardinals	2-5-6 OCS
33	Seawolves	1-2-4	def.	Bruins	3-5-6
34	Bearcats	1-2-3	def.	Gator	4-5-6
35	Eagles	1-4-5	def.	Cardinals	2-3-6
36	Dragons	1-2-3	def.	Mustangs	4-5-6
37	Bearcats	1-2-3	def.	Bruins	4-5-6
38	Cardinals	1-3-6	def.	Seawolves	2-4-5
39	Gator	1-2-4	def.	Mustangs	3-5-6
40	Dragons	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
41	Cardinals	1-2-4	def.	Bearcats	3-5-6
42	Bruins	1-2-4	def.	Mustangs	3-5-6
43	Seawolves	1-3-4	def.	Eagles	2-5-6
44	Dragons	1-2-5	def.	Gator	3-4-6
45	Mustangs	1-2-6	def.	Cardinals	3-4-5
46	Bearcats	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
47	Bruins	1-2-6	def.	Gator	3-4-5
48	Dragons	2-3-4	def.	Seawolves	1-5-6
49	Eagles	2-3-5	def.	Mustangs	1-4-6
50	Gator	1-2-4	def.	Cardinals	3-5-6
51	Seawolves	1-2-5	def.	Bearcats	3-4-6
52	Bruins	1-2-6	def.	Dragons	3-4-5
53	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Gator	3-5-6
54	Seawolves	1-2-3	def.	Mustangs	4-5-6
55	Bruins	2-3-5	def.	Cardinals	1-4-6
56	Bearcats	1-3-4	def.	Dragons	2-5-6
57	Bruins	1-2-5	def.	Dragons	3-4-6
58	Seawolves	1-2-5	def.	Bearcats	3-4-6
59	Bruins	1-2-5	def.	Seawolves	3-4-6
60	Bearcats	1-2-3	def.	Dragons	4-5-6
61	Dragons	2-3-4	def.	Seawolves	1-5-6
62	Bruins	1-4-5	def.	Bearcats	2-3-6
63	Bruins	1-2-5	def.	Dragons	3-4-6
64	Bearcats	1-2-5	def.	Seawolves	3-4-6
65	Bruins	1-2-4	def.	Seawolves	3-5-6
66	Dragons	1-2-5	def.	Bearcats	3-4-6
67	Dragons	1-2-4	def.	Seawolves	3-5-6
68	Bruins	1-2-6	def.	Bearcats	3-4-5

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Brunswick School	Bruins	Ben Sheppard '23 Robert Ulmer '24 Sebastian Sheppard '27 Thomas Whidden '24	Henry Ginnel '26 Alex Ohls '24 Wills Gandy '30 Greer Sconzo '23
The Hotchkiss School	Bearcats	Fynn Olsen '25 Pierce Olsen '25 Samara Walshe '25	Kate Moran '23 Phoebe Hackett '24 Lucy Jervis '23
St. George's School	Dragons	Christian Ebbin '24 Dylan Balunas '24 Pearse Dowd '25	Grace Patterson '25 Max Miller '24 Phoebe Fogarty '25
Tabor Academy	Seawolves	Griffin Beaulieu '23 Jonnie Ciffolillo '23 Wyatt Bischoff '23	Fiona Hoben '24 Theo Binder '25 Elizabeth Elkinson '23
Greenwich High School	Cardinals	Elle Sykes '23 Luca Larosa '26 Martha Schuessler '23 Richard Sykes '26	Marcos Rotella '26 Mollie Wood '25 Annabelle Elkin '25 Michael Donovan '26
Barrington High School	Eagles	Brendan Jay '23 Christopher Chwalk '24 Gus Macaulay '23	George White '23 Lauren Leonard '25 Avery Guck '24 Quin Schneider '25
Greenwich Academy	Gator	Callie Hammond '25 Chang Tatum '23 Helena Borcherding '26 Kit Harned '23	Grayson Stengel '23 Kit Harned '23 Saanvi Gupta '25 Honour Russell '23 Katheryn Mcgranahan '25
Milton Academy	Mustangs	Emma Wang '23 Jackie Ruggieri '23 Ryan Mcgauley '23	William Bourell '23 Eliot Hack '24 Tallulah Doeringer '24

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →