Milton Academy '23
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.99 (fleet 1.59) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 15–14 (52%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 1 | 3–11 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 1 | 12–3 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (29 matches) the record is 15–14 against 13.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.7). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-05-06 | NESSA Team Racing Championship (Presidents Trophy) | skipper | 1.08 | 0.74 | 3–11 | 3.6 | −0.34 | 0.1 | 75% |
| 2022-05-14 | NESSA Team Racing Tournament (Terk Trophy) | skipper | 0.93 | 2.05 | 12–3 | 9.7 | +1.12 | 1.4 | 14% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Phebe Corckran King Invitational | Skipper | B | 6 | 11.0 | 0.56 |
| O'Day Qualifier - Portland, ME | Skipper | B | 3 | 3.3 | 2.25 |
| NESSA Fleet Racing Championship (O'Day Trophy) | Skipper | B | 2 | 11.0 | 0.24 |
| NESSA Team Racing Championship (Presidents Trophy) | Skipper | TR | 14 | 21% | — |
| NESSA Girls' Championship (Herreshoff Trophy) | Skipper | A | 8 | 8.9 | 0.48 |
| Herreshoff Qualifier - MMA | Skipper | A | 7 | 5.1 | 0.32 |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| NESSA Fall FunFest (Gleekman Trophy) | Skipper | B | 4 | 9.5 | -0.09 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| O'Day Qualifier @Milton/BCH | Skipper | B | 1 | 3.0 | 0.17 |
| NESSA Team Racing Tournament (Terk Trophy) | Skipper | TR | 15 | 80% | — |
| NESSA George O'Day Trophy | Skipper | B | 3 | 12.0 | -0.52 |
| Herreshoff Qualifier - Barnstable | Skipper | B | 7 | 1.9 | 2.06 |
| NESSA Girls Championship (Herreshoff Trophy) | Skipper | B | 7 | 4.1 | 2.34 |
| 2022 Phebe King Memorial Trophy Regatta | Skipper | B | 5 | 13.0 | -0.59 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| 2021 NESSA Fall Funfest (Gleekman Trophy) | Skipper | B | 4 | 6.8 | 0.34 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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