Tabor Academy '23
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.33 (fleet 3.85) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.05 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 42–29 (59%) as crew 3–1 (75%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 3 | 24–20 | 3–1 |
| Spring 2022 | 2 | 18–9 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 6 graded regattas (75 matches) the record is 45–30 against 46.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.1). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 12 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-05-20 | National Invitational Tournament (Founders Trophy) | skipper | 2.82 | 1.33 | 4–8 | 6.7 | −1.49 | 2.2 | 98% |
| 2023-05-20 | National Invitational Tournament (Founders Trophy) | crew | 2.82 | 3.67 | 3–1 | 2.5 | +0.85 | 0.2 | 50% |
| 2023-05-06 | NESSA Team Racing Championship (Presidents Trophy) | skipper | 2.52 | 2.65 | 10–10 | 9.6 | +0.13 | 0.0 | 51% |
| 2023-04-15 | April 15 8x Team Race | skipper | 2.60 | -0.18 | 10–2 | 11.7 | −2.78 | 3.2 | >99% |
| 2022-05-21 | National Invitational Tournament (NIT) | skipper | 2.42 | 5.29 | 12–1 | 7.8 | +2.87 | 5.5 | 1% |
| 2022-05-14 | NESSA Team Racing Championship (Presidents Trophy) | skipper | 2.23 | 1.41 | 6–8 | 7.8 | −0.83 | 0.8 | 92% |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Jonnie Ciffolillo |  College of Charleston |
'27 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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