Cape Elizabeth Team Race

HostCape Elizabeth
Date04/01/2023
TypePromotional
BoatZ420
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Tabor Academy	Seawolves	2–0
2	Cape Elizabeth High School	Capers	2–1
3	Falmouth High School	Navigators	2–1
3	Unregistered-NESSA	Southern Maine	2–1
5	Greely High School - Maine	Rangers	1–2
5	Portland High School	Bulldogs	1–2
7	Lincoln Academy	Eagles	0–1
8	Cheverus High School	Varsity	0–2

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 9,305 team race matches sailed before 2023-04-01, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 4 of 4 matches (100%) with a log-loss of 0.287 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Tabor Academy Seawolves	1	6.03 school +0.46	Wyatt Bischoff / Theo Binder 2.30 Patrick Shachoy / Elizabeth Elkinson Griffin Beaulieu / Camila Diaz	98%	2–0 (100%)	+0.0
2	Cape Elizabeth High School Capers	4	0.65 school −0.25, home +0.08	Story Straw / Callie Mccarley Thomas Emery / Cora Johnson 0.19 Luca Kleeman / Keaton Mosunic	2%	0–2 (0%)	−0.0
3	Falmouth High School Navigators	3	2.06 school −0.25	Ben Wintersteen / Myles Feuer Aurora Raber / Jack Carlson William Kelley / Miles Mannion	43%	0–2 (0%)	−0.9
5	Portland High School Bulldogs	2	2.43 school −0.18	Posie Cabaniss / Isla Norton 1.23 Aoife Mahoney / Hazel Johnson 0.94 Charlotte Mcdonald / Frankie Sparrow	57%	2–0 (100%)	+0.9

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
5	Portland High School	2.43	5.43	2–0	1.1	≥+3.00	1.4	33%
1	Tabor Academy	6.03	9.03	2–0	2.0	≥+3.00	0.0	97%
3	Falmouth High School	2.06	-0.94	0–2	0.9	≤−3.00	1.4	>99%
2	Cape Elizabeth High School	0.65	-2.35	0–2	0.0	≤−3.00	0.0	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	2	Portland High School	Falmouth High School	58%
1	8	Tabor Academy	Cape Elizabeth High School	99%
2	32	Portland High School	Falmouth High School	57%
2	49	Tabor Academy	Cape Elizabeth High School	99%

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Rangers	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6 DNF,DNF,DNS
2	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Navigators	3-4-5
3	Seawolves	1-2-3	def.	Varsity	4-5-6
4	Capers	2-3-4	def.	Southern Maine	1-5-6
5	Navigators	2-3-4	def.	Rangers	1-5-6
6	Eagles		def.	Varsity
7	Southern Maine	1-3-5	def.	Bulldogs	2-4-6
8	Seawolves	1-2-3	def.	Capers	4-5-6
9	Navigators	1-2-4	def.	Varsity	3-5-6
10	Southern Maine	1-2-5	def.	Rangers	3-4-6
11	Eagles		def.	Seawolves
12	Capers	2-3-5	def.	Bulldogs	1-4-6
13	Varsity		def.	Southern Maine
14	Navigators		def.	Seawolves
15	Rangers		def.	Bulldogs
16	Capers		def.	Eagles
17	Southern Maine		def.	Seawolves
18	Varsity		def.	Bulldogs
19	Navigators		def.	Eagles
20	Rangers		def.	Capers
21	Seawolves		def.	Bulldogs
22	Southern Maine		def.	Eagles
23	Varsity		def.	Rangers
24	Capers		def.	Navigators
25	Bulldogs		def.	Eagles
26	Seawolves		def.	Rangers
27	Southern Maine		def.	Navigators
28	Varsity		def.	Capers
29	Varsity		def.	Eagles
30	Capers		def.	Rangers
31	Seawolves		def.	Southern Maine
32	Bulldogs		def.	Navigators
33	Eagles		def.	Rangers
34	Varsity		def.	Southern Maine
35	Capers		def.	Bulldogs
36	Navigators		def.	Seawolves
37	Rangers		def.	Southern Maine
38	Eagles		def.	Bulldogs
39	Varsity		def.	Seawolves
40	Capers		def.	Navigators
41	Southern Maine		def.	Bulldogs
42	Rangers		def.	Seawolves
43	Eagles		def.	Capers
44	Navigators		def.	Varsity
45	Bulldogs		def.	Seawolves
46	Southern Maine		def.	Capers
47	Rangers		def.	Varsity
48	Eagles		def.	Navigators
49	Seawolves		def.	Capers
50	Bulldogs		def.	Varsity
51	Southern Maine		def.	Eagles
52	Navigators		def.	Rangers
53	Capers		def.	Varsity
54	Seawolves		def.	Eagles
55	Bulldogs		def.	Rangers
56	Southern Maine		def.	Navigators

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Tabor Academy	Seawolves	Griffin Beaulieu '23 Jonnie Ciffolillo '23 Patrick Shachoy '24 Wyatt Bischoff '23	Camila Diaz '24 Elizabeth Elkinson '23 Theo Binder '25
Cape Elizabeth High School	Capers	Luca Kleeman '27 Story Straw '25 Thomas Emery '23	Keaton Mosunic '28 Callie Mccarley '27 Cora Johnson '23
Falmouth High School	Navigators	Aurora Raber '24 Ben Wintersteen '23 William Kelley '25	Jack Carlson '23 Myles Feuer '25 Miles Mannion '24
Portland High School	Bulldogs	Aoife Mahoney '23 Charlotte Mcdonald '25 Posie Cabaniss '23	Hazel Johnson '23 Frankie Sparrow '23 Isla Norton '26

Conditions — 04/01/2023 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle

Humidity 96% · Pressure 996.6 hPa

Temperature

46°F

↑ 56°F ↓ 40°F

Feels like 43°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

4.1 kn

avg · max 6.0 kn

Gusts to 16.3 kn

From S (188°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover89% Sunshine1.9 hrs Humidity96% Pressure996.6 hPa Rain0.33 in

What this breeze does at Cape Elizabeth — from fleet racing

Breeze: S about 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Cape Elizabeth in this breeze: a typical day (−0.00)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Cape Elizabeth by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at Cape Elizabeth, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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