Cape Elizabeth High School '23
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.12 (fleet 0.20) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 3–18 (14%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 2 | 3–9 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 1 | 0–2 | — |
| Spring 2021 | 1 | 0–7 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (17 matches) the record is 3–14 against 4.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.6). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 5 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-05-20 | Dick Levesque Maine State Team Racing Championship | skipper | 0.21 | 0.98 | 3–7 | 2.0 | +0.77 | 0.5 | 31% |
| 2021-05-23 | Levesque Trophy: ME State Team Race Championship | skipper | -0.07 | -3.07 | 0–7 | 2.7 | ≤−3.00 | 4.4 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Ranger/Stagg Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 60% | — |
| Dick Levesque Maine State Team Racing Championship | Skipper | TR | 14 | 43% | — |
| Cape Elizabeth Team Race | Skipper | TR | 3 | 67% | — |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Ranger Rally and Stags Leap Regatta | Skipper | A | 5 | 7.2 | — |
| Navigators Challenge | Skipper | B | 6 | 6.7 | -2.68 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| SailMaine Team Race #3 | Skipper | TR | 11 | 27% | — |
| SailMaine Sunday Fleet Race #2 | Skipper | A | 5 | 2.4 | — |
| Dick Levesque Maine State Team Race Champs | Skipper | TR | 7 | 43% | — |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| SailMaine Sunday Series #3 | Skipper | A | 4 | 3.8 | -0.23 |
| SailMaine Cup | Skipper | A | 4 | 12.2 | — |
| NESSA NKBI Qualifier Keelboat | Crew | A | 3 | 3.3 | — |
| Falmouth Regatta | Skipper | A | 3 | 6.0 | -1.45 |
| Clipper Cup | Skipper | B | 6 | 9.0 | -1.26 |
| Spring 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Levesque Trophy: ME State Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 7 | 0% | — |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Sunday Series week 2 | Skipper | A | 4 | 6.8 | -1.75 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
To have this profile removed, email quinnbrighton2005@gmail.com.
