| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Lincoln Academy | Eagles | 11–0 |
| 2 |  |
Falmouth High School, ME | Navigators | 5–1 |
| 3 |  |
Portland High School | Bulldogs | 8–3 |
| 4 |  |
Yarmouth High School | Clippers | 5–6 |
| 5 |  |
Cape Elizabeth High School | Capers | 3–8 |
| 6 |  |
Cheverus High School | Varsity | 2–9 |
| 7 |  |
Unregistered-NESSA | Southern Maine | 2–9 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 8,326 team race matches sailed before 2022-04-30, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 2 of 2 matches (100%) with a log-loss of 0.164 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Portland High School Bulldogs | 1 | 2.76 school −0.21 | Eva Ermlich / Simone Daranyi 1.61 Posie Cabaniss / Valyn Mogensen 0.82 Aoife Mahoney / Gregg O'Rourke 0.47 | 85% | 2–0 (100%) | +0.3 |
| 5 | Cape Elizabeth High School Capers | 2 | 0.54 school −0.27 | Thomas Emery / Sebastian Francis 0.16 Sage Evans / Keaton Mosunic Luc Francis / Vio Voltz 0.06 | 15% | 0–2 (0%) | −0.3 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Portland High School | 2.76 | 5.76 | 2–0 | 1.7 | ≥+3.00 | 0.4 | 72% |
| 5 | Cape Elizabeth High School | 0.54 | -2.46 | 0–2 | 0.3 | ≤−3.00 | 0.4 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | Portland High School | Cape Elizabeth High School | 85% | |
| 2 | 23 | Portland High School | Cape Elizabeth High School | 85% |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Navigators | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Clippers | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Capers | 1-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Southern Maine | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Navigators | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Capers | 3-4-5 |
| 7 | |
Southern Maine | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Clippers | 3-4-5 |
| 8 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Navigators | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Capers | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Southern Maine | 2-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Navigators | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Clippers | 3-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Eagles | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Navigators | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Capers | 3-4-5 |
| 14 | |
Varsity | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Southern Maine | 3-4-5 |
| 15 | |
Bulldogs | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Clippers | 2-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Capers | 4-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Navigators | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Southern Maine | 4-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Eagles | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Clippers | 3-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Capers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Southern Maine | 3-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Clippers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 |
| 22 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Bulldogs | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Capers | 1-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Clippers | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Southern Maine | 2-4-5 |
| 25 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 26 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Southern Maine | 4-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Clippers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Capers | 1-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Southern Maine | 3-4-6 |
| 29 | |
Capers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 |
| 30 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Clippers | 4-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Southern Maine | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Capers | 3-5-6 |
| 32 | |
Eagles | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-5-6 |
| 33 | |
Clippers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 1-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Capers | 4-5-6 |
| 35 | |
Varsity | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Southern Maine | 3-4-5 |
| 36 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Clippers | 3-4-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Portland High School | Bulldogs | Aoife Mahoney '23 Eva Ermlich '22 Posie Cabaniss '23 |
Gregg O'Rourke '22 Simone Daranyi '23 Valyn Mogensen '22 |
|
Cape Elizabeth High School | Capers | Luc Francis '24 Sage Evans '25 Thomas Emery '23 |
Vio Voltz '24 Keaton Mosunic '28 Sebastian Francis '25 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
