Falmouth High School (ME) '25
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.67 (fleet 1.07) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 12–9 (57%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 | 1 | 5–4 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 2 | 7–5 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (19 matches) the record is 12–7 against 9.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.9). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-30 | Stags Leap Team Race Regatta | skipper | 0.77 | 1.69 | 5–4 | 3.6 | +0.92 | 0.7 | 25% |
| 2023-05-20 | Dick Levesque Maine State Team Racing Championship | skipper | 0.58 | 1.56 | 7–3 | 5.5 | +0.98 | 0.8 | 24% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| NESSA O'Day Qualifier - Portland | Skipper | B | 5 | 5.2 | 0.66 |
| Downeast Championships | Skipper | A | 2 | 6.5 | 0.28 |
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Sunday Series 1 | Skipper | A | 4 | 3.8 | -0.78 |
| Stag's Leap | Skipper | A | 6 | 7.5 | -0.55 |
| Fall FunFest (Gleekman Trophy) | Skipper | A | 6 | 9.5 | 1.32 |
| Casco Bay Open | Skipper | A | 1 | 11.0 | — |
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Stags Leap Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | 14 | 71% | — |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Sunday Series 10/15 | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.7 | -2.42 |
| SailMaine NESSA NKBI Qualifier Keelboat | Crew | A | 5 | 3.2 | — |
| Navigator Challenge | Skipper | B | 4 | 4.8 | 0.13 |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Dick Levesque Maine State Team Racing Championship | Skipper | TR | 14 | 64% | — |
| Cape Elizabeth Team Race | Skipper | TR | 3 | 67% | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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