Stags Leap Team Race Regatta

Pre-event forecast?

Fitted on the 10,537 team race matches sailed before 2024-03-30, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 11 of 18 matches (61%) with a log-loss of 0.719 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −1.05 ± 0.58: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 6% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Lincoln Academy Eagles	1	3.16 school −0.33	Toby Clarkson / Piper Carleton 1.97 Otto Schoenthal / Alden Hall 1.34 Griffin Chace / Noah Arbuckle 0.01	70%	6–3 (67%)	−0.3
2	Falmouth High School (ME) Navigators	3	1.84 school −0.21	William Kelley / Myles Feuer 0.77 Miles Mannion / Beck Langston 0.43 Wilson Langston / Quinn Hackett	40%	5–4 (56%)	+1.4
3	Cape Elizabeth High School Capers	2	2.98	Tess Straw / Celeste Tourangeu 0.98 Story Straw / Keaton Mosunic 1.00 Sophia Lee / Luca Kleeman	66%	4–5 (44%)	−2.0
6	Yarmouth High School Clippers	4	1.10 school −0.31	Olivier Garcia De Reynal / Spencer Moore 0.82 Reid Garofoli / Syrin Hassan Eliana Goldman / Myah Hassan 0.00	24%	3–6 (33%)	+0.9

Surprisal: who beat their rating?

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
2	Falmouth High School (ME)	1.84	2.76	5–4	3.6	+0.92	0.7	25%
6	Yarmouth High School	1.10	1.74	3–6	2.1	+0.64	0.3	36%
1	Lincoln Academy	3.16	2.93	6–3	6.3	−0.23	0.0	74%
3	Cape Elizabeth High School	2.98	1.71	4–5	6.0	−1.27	1.4	96%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
William Kelley	Falmouth High School (ME)	0.77	1.69	5–4	3.6	+0.92	0.7	25%
Wilson Langston	Falmouth High School (ME)	0.70	1.62	5–4	3.6	+0.92	0.7	25%
Olivier Garcia De Reynal	Yarmouth High School	0.82	1.46	3–6	2.1	+0.64	0.3	36%
Reid Garofoli	Yarmouth High School	0.44	1.08	3–6	2.1	+0.64	0.3	36%
Eliana Goldman	Yarmouth High School	0.00	0.64	3–6	2.1	+0.64	0.3	36%
Otto Schoenthal	Lincoln Academy	1.34	1.11	6–3	6.3	−0.23	0.0	74%
Tess Straw	Cape Elizabeth High School	0.98	-0.29	4–5	6.0	−1.27	1.4	96%
Story Straw	Cape Elizabeth High School	1.00	-0.28	4–5	6.0	−1.27	1.4	96%
Sophia Lee	Cape Elizabeth High School	0.92	-0.35	4–5	6.0	−1.27	1.4	96%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

#	Winner				Loser		Pos.
1		Capers	1-3-5	def.		Greevus	2-4-6
2		Eagles	1-3-5	def.		Navigators	2-4-6
3		Southern ME	1-3-6	def.		Mustangs	2-4-5
4		Capers	1-2-4	def.		Clippers	3-5-6
5		Greevus	1-3-6	def.		Navigators	2-4-5
6		Eagles	1-3-5	def.		Mustangs	2-4-6
7		Southern ME	1-3-4	def.		Clippers	2-5-6
8		Navigators	1-3-4	def.		Capers	2-5-6
9		Greevus	2-3-5	def.		Eagles	1-4-6
10		Mustangs	1-2-4	def.		Clippers	3-5-6
11		Capers	1-2-6	def.		Southern ME	3-4-5
12		Mustangs	1-2-4	def.		Greevus	3-5-6
13		Navigators	1-3-4	def.		Clippers	2-5-6
14		Southern ME	1-3-6	def.		Eagles	2-4-5
15		Capers	1-3-4	def.		Mustangs	2-5-6
16		Clippers	1-2-5	def.		Greevus	3-4-6
17		Navigators	1-2-5	def.		Southern ME	3-4-6
18		Eagles	1-2-5	def.		Capers	3-4-6
19		Navigators	1-3-4	def.		Mustangs	2-5-6
20		Southern ME	1-2-4	def.		Greevus	3-5-6
21		Eagles	1-2-3	def.		Clippers	4-5-6
22		Navigators	1-3-6	def.		Eagles	2-4-5
23		Southern ME	2-3-4	def.		Greevus	1-5-6
24		Mustangs	1-3-4	def.		Capers	2-5-6
25		Eagles	1-2-6	def.		Clippers	3-4-5
26		Navigators	1-3-6	def.		Southern ME	2-4-5
27		Capers	1-2-4	def.		Greevus	3-5-6
28		Mustangs	1-2-3	def.		Clippers	4-5-6
29		Eagles	1-2-6	def.		Southern ME	3-4-5
30		Navigators	2-3-5	def.		Greevus	1-4-6
31		Capers	1-2-3	def.		Clippers	4-5-6
32		Eagles	2-3-4	def.		Mustangs	1-5-6
33		Capers	1-2-5	def.		Navigators	3-4-6
34		Southern ME	1-2-3	def.		Clippers	4-5-6
35		Mustangs	1-2-4	def.		Greevus	3-5-6
36		Eagles	1-2-3	def.		Capers	4-5-6
37		Navigators	1-3-4	def.		Clippers	2-5-6
38		Mustangs	1-3-4	def.		Southern ME	2-5-6
39		Eagles	1-3-4	def.		Greevus	2-5-6
40		Capers	1-2-4	def.		Southern ME	3-5-6
41		Navigators	1-3-4	def.		Mustangs	2-5-6
42		Clippers	1-3-4	def.		Greevus	2-5-6
43		Eagles	1-2-5	def.		Navigators	3-4-6
44		Greevus		def.		Southern ME
45		Capers	1-2-6	def.		Mustangs	3-4-5
46		Clippers		def.		Eagles
47		Southern ME		def.		Navigators
48		Capers		def.		Greevus
49		Clippers		def.		Mustangs
50		Southern ME		def.		Eagles
51		Greevus		def.		Navigators
52		Clippers		def.		Capers
53		Mustangs		def.		Eagles
54		Navigators	1-4-5	def.		Capers	2-3-6
55		Clippers		def.		Southern ME
56		Mustangs		def.		Greevus
57		Capers		def.		Eagles
58		Clippers		def.		Navigators
59		Mustangs		def.		Southern ME
60		Greevus		def.		Eagles
61		Capers		def.		Southern ME
62		Mustangs		def.		Navigators
63		Clippers		def.		Greevus

	School	Team	Skippers	Crew
	Lincoln Academy	Eagles	Griffin Chace '26 Otto Schoenthal '25 Toby Clarkson '24	Noah Arbuckle '25 Alden Hall '28 Piper Carleton '24
	Falmouth High School (ME)	Navigators	Miles Mannion '24 William Kelley '25 Wilson Langston '25	Beck Langston '27 Myles Feuer '25 Quinn Hackett '25
	Cape Elizabeth High School	Capers	Sophia Lee '28 Story Straw '25 Tess Straw '24	Luca Kleeman '27 Keaton Mosunic '28 Celeste Tourangeu '26
	Yarmouth High School	Clippers	Eliana Goldman '26 Olivier Garcia De Reynal '25 Reid Garofoli '27	Myah Hassan '25 Spencer Moore '24 Syrin Hassan '27