Falmouth High School (ME) '25
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.85 (fleet 1.38) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 8–7 (53%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 | 2 | 3–3 | — |
| Spring 2024 | 1 | 5–4 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (15 matches) the record is 8–7 against 6.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.4). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-03 | Dick Levesque Maine State Championship | skipper | 1.09 | 1.64 | 2–1 | 1.7 | +0.55 | 0.1 | 60% |
| 2025-04-05 | IHYC Super Saturday 1 | skipper | 1.16 | 0.63 | 1–2 | 1.3 | −0.53 | 0.1 | 81% |
| 2024-03-30 | Stags Leap Team Race Regatta | skipper | 0.70 | 1.62 | 5–4 | 3.6 | +0.92 | 0.7 | 25% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| NESSA O'Day Qualifier - Portland | Skipper | A | 5 | 5.6 | 1.42 |
| IHYC Super Saturday 1 | Skipper | TR | 15 | 13% | — |
| Dick Levesque Maine State Championship | Skipper | TR | 11 | 27% | — |
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Stag's Leap | Skipper | A | 6 | 7.5 | -0.60 |
| SailMaine Cup | Skipper | B | 5 | 1.4 | 2.25 |
| Roy Williams Invitational Regatta | Skipper | A | 7 | 10.6 | 0.99 |
| Clipper Challenge | Skipper | A | 4 | 3.0 | 2.08 |
| Casco Bay Open | Skipper | A | 2 | 8.5 | 1.19 |
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Stags Leap Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | 14 | 71% | — |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern Maine Open | Skipper | B | 9 | 5.9 | — |
| SailMaine NESSA NKBI Qualifier Keelboat | Crew | A | 5 | 3.2 | — |
| SailMaine Cup | Skipper | A | 8 | 7.6 | — |
| Navigator Challenge | Skipper | A | 4 | 7.8 | -2.46 |
| ARNOLD BROWN REGATTA | Skipper | A | 6 | 8.3 | -0.01 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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