Navigator Challenge

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Southern ME 1 11 6 17
2 Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Southern ME 2 16 9 25
3 Falmouth High School (ME) Falmouth High School (ME) Navigators 1 17 19 36
4 Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Southern ME 3 25 16 41
5 Cape Elizabeth High School Cape Elizabeth High School Capers 24 20 44
6 Cheverus High School Cheverus High School Varsity 18 29 47
7 Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Northern VT 1 26 25 51
8 Falmouth High School (ME) Falmouth High School (ME) Navigators 2 31 26 57
9 Varsity Varsity Varsity 28 32 60
10 Rangers Rangers Rangers 25 41 66
11 Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Northern VT 2 43 41 84
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Southern ME 1 6 1 3 1 11 Finn Gibson '19
Lily Thompson '19
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Southern ME 2 1 9 4 2 16 Mairead Ferrie '24
Henry Rudowski '24
Falmouth High School (ME) Falmouth High School (ME) Navigators 1 4 5 1 7 17 Aurora Raber '24
Miles Mannion '24
Cheverus High School Cheverus High School Varsity 2 8 2 6 18 Josh Herlihy '25
Lannie Lamontagne '25
Cape Elizabeth High School Cape Elizabeth High School Capers 3 3 7 11 24 Story Straw '25 [1-4]
Keaton Mosunic '28 [1-2]
Elliot Northup '26 [3-4]
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Southern ME 3 5 4 8 8 25 Spencer Fieldroy '24
Henry Rudowski '24
Rangers Rangers Rangers 10 2 10 3 25
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Northern VT 1 8 7 6 5 26
Varsity Varsity Varsity 9 10 5 4 28
Falmouth High School (ME) Falmouth High School (ME) Navigators 2 7 6 9 9 31 Wilson Langston '25
Quinn Hackett '25
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Northern VT 2 11 11 11 10 43
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Southern ME 1 2 1 2 1 6 Ben Carnahan '17
Taylor Davis '18
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Southern ME 2 1 5 1 2 9 Aiden Springer '24
Jonah Reischmann '23
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Southern ME 3 3 3 7 3 16 Noah Reischmann '24
Mira Broussard '24
Falmouth High School (ME) Falmouth High School (ME) Navigators 1 4 7 4 4 19 William Kelley '25
Ian Doherty '25
Cape Elizabeth High School Cape Elizabeth High School Capers 5 6 3 6 20 Sophia Lee '28 [1-4]
Trevor Oakley '24 [1-2]
Gabe Tourangeau '27 [3-4]
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Northern VT 1 7 4 9 5 25
Falmouth High School (ME) Falmouth High School (ME) Navigators 2 6 8 5 7 26 Harper Shepard '25
Jacob Cahan '23
Cheverus High School Cheverus High School Varsity 8 2 8 11 29 Aggie Lamontagne '25 [1-4]
Lucy Pitcock '27 [1-2]
Phoebe Kibler '26 [3-4]
Varsity Varsity Varsity 9 9 6 8 32
Rangers Rangers Rangers 10 11 11 9 41
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Northern VT 2 11 10 10 10 41
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2023 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Cape Elizabeth High SchoolCape Elizabeth High School Capers1133
VarsityVarsity Varsity2244
Cheverus High SchoolCheverus High School Varsity3355
Falmouth High School (ME)Falmouth High School (ME) Navigators 14466
Falmouth High School (ME)Falmouth High School (ME) Navigators 25577
RangersRangers Rangers6688
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA Northern VT 1101011
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA Northern VT 2111122
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA Southern ME 17799
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA Southern ME 2881010
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA Southern ME 3991111

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
Cape Elizabeth High SchoolCape Elizabeth High School Capers2244
VarsityVarsity Varsity3355
Cheverus High SchoolCheverus High School Varsity4466
Falmouth High School (ME)Falmouth High School (ME) Navigators 15577
Falmouth High School (ME)Falmouth High School (ME) Navigators 26688
RangersRangers Rangers7799
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA Northern VT 1111122
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA Northern VT 21133
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA Southern ME 1881010
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA Southern ME 2991111
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA Southern ME 3101011

Conditions — 09/30/2023 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 91%  ·  Pressure 1020.5 hPa

Temperature

61°F
↑ 62°F   ↓ 59°F
Feels like 58°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
11.1 kn
avg  ·  max 14.2 kn
Gusts to 27.8 kn
From NNE (24°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.0 hrs Humidity91% Pressure1020.5 hPa Rain0.25 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 4 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Falmouth High School Team: a typical day (+0.00)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.10 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.10
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.16 ± 0.44)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Falmouth High School Team by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at Falmouth High School Team, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →