| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Brunswick School | Brunswick Bruins | 12–0 |
| 2 |  |
Greenwich High School | Cardinals | 13–2 |
| 3 |  |
Greenwich Academy | Varsity | 12–3 |
| 3 |  |
Greens Farms Academy | Dragons | 12–3 |
| 5 |  |
The Hotchkiss School | Bearcats | 12–5 |
| 6 |  |
Greenwich Country Day School | Tigers | 3–8 |
| 7 |  |
Duxbury High School | Dragons | 3–12 |
| 8 |  |
North Kingstown High School | Skippers | 2–13 |
| 8 |  |
Falmouth High School (ME) | Navigators | 2–13 |
| 10 |  |
Bishop Stang High | Spartans | 0–12 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 11,837 team race matches sailed before 2025-04-05, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 8 of 9 matches (89%) with a log-loss of 0.236 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brunswick School Brunswick Bruins | 1 | 6.96 school +0.55 | Sebastian Sheppard / Andrew Ohls 2.90 Wills Gandy / Sean Mensi 1.20 Harrison Gandy / Henry Ginnel | 98% | 6–0 (100%) | +0.2 |
| 6 | Greenwich Country Day School Tigers | 2 | 2.56 school +0.16 | Mary Chickering / Chris L'Helias 0.70 Grant Zucconi / Charlie Clark 0.78 Leighton Krueger / Harrison Thompson | 57% | 2–1 (67%) | +0.3 |
| 8 | North Kingstown High School Skippers | 4 | 2.35 school −0.05 | Alice Dunning / Ella Gregoire Anthony Laurent / Makenzie Moriarty Jacob Lentz / Freya Mcgeoch | 3% | 0–3 (0%) | −0.1 |
| 8 | Falmouth High School (ME) Navigators | 3 | 2.18 school +0.06 | Molly Gerding / Ian Doherty Myles Feuer / Anna King 0.55 0–3 Noelle Caola / Savannah Talbert 0–3 Myles Feuer / Claire Kusel 0.55 1–2 Wilson Langston / Beck Langston 1.16 1–2 | 23% | 1–5 (17%) | −0.4 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brunswick School | 6.96 | 9.96 | 6–0 | 5.8 | ≥+3.00 | 0.2 | 86% |
| 6 | Greenwich Country Day School | 2.56 | 3.09 | 2–1 | 1.7 | +0.53 | 0.1 | 60% |
| 8 | Falmouth High School (ME) | 2.18 | 1.57 | 1–5 | 1.4 | −0.61 | 0.1 | 83% |
| 8 | North Kingstown High School | 2.35 | -0.65 | 0–3 | 0.1 | ≤−3.00 | 0.1 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sebastian Sheppard | Brunswick School | 2.90 | 5.90 | 6–0 | 5.8 | ≥+3.00 | 0.2 | 86% |
| Wills Gandy | Brunswick School | 1.20 | 4.20 | 6–0 | 5.8 | ≥+3.00 | 0.2 | 86% |
| Harrison Gandy | Brunswick School | 2.24 | 5.24 | 6–0 | 5.8 | ≥+3.00 | 0.2 | 86% |
| Mary Chickering | Greenwich Country Day School | 0.70 | 1.23 | 2–1 | 1.7 | +0.53 | 0.1 | 60% |
| Grant Zucconi | Greenwich Country Day School | 0.78 | 1.31 | 2–1 | 1.7 | +0.53 | 0.1 | 60% |
| Leighton Krueger | Greenwich Country Day School | 0.84 | 1.37 | 2–1 | 1.7 | +0.53 | 0.1 | 60% |
| Wilson Langston | Falmouth High School (ME) | 1.16 | 0.63 | 1–2 | 1.3 | −0.53 | 0.1 | 81% |
| Myles Feuer | Falmouth High School (ME) | 0.55 | -0.06 | 1–5 | 1.4 | −0.61 | 0.1 | 83% |
| Molly Gerding | Falmouth High School (ME) | 0.33 | -0.28 | 1–5 | 1.4 | −0.61 | 0.1 | 83% |
| Alice Dunning | North Kingstown High School | 0.96 | -2.04 | 0–3 | 0.1 | ≤−3.00 | 0.1 | >99% |
| Anthony Laurent | North Kingstown High School | 0.06 | -2.94 | 0–3 | 0.1 | ≤−3.00 | 0.1 | >99% |
| Noelle Caola | Falmouth High School (ME) | 1.10 | -1.90 | 0–3 | 0.1 | ≤−3.00 | 0.1 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Brunswick Bruins | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Skippers | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Varsity | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Navigators | 3-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Dragons | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Tigers | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Brunswick Bruins | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Navigators | 3-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Dragons | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Skippers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Tigers | 3-4-5 |
| 7 | |
Brunswick Bruins | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Dragons | 2-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Skippers | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Tigers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Navigators | 3-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Varsity | def. | |
Brunswick Bruins | ||
| 11 | |
Skippers | def. | |
Navigators | ||
| 12 | |
Varsity | def. | |
Tigers | ||
| 13 | |
Dragons | def. | |
Navigators | ||
| 14 | |
Brunswick Bruins | def. | |
Tigers | ||
| 15 | |
Skippers | def. | |
Dragons | ||
| 16 | |
Brunswick Bruins | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Skippers | 3-4-5 |
| 17 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Navigators | 4-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Dragons | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Tigers | 3-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Brunswick Bruins | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Navigators | 4-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Dragons | 4-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Tigers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Skippers | 3-4-5 |
| 22 | |
Brunswick Bruins | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Dragons | 4-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Skippers | 4-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Navigators | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Tigers | 1-4-6 |
| 25 | |
Varsity | def. | |
Brunswick Bruins | ||
| 26 | |
Skippers | def. | |
Navigators | ||
| 27 | |
Varsity | def. | |
Tigers | ||
| 28 | |
Dragons | def. | |
Navigators | ||
| 29 | |
Brunswick Bruins | def. | |
Tigers | ||
| 30 | |
Skippers | def. | |
Dragons | ||
| 31 | |
Brunswick Bruins | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Skippers | 4-5-6 |
| 32 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Navigators | 4-5-6 |
| 33 | |
Dragons | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Tigers | 3-4-5 |
| 34 | |
Brunswick Bruins | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Navigators | 3-5-6 |
| 35 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Dragons | 4-5-6 |
| 36 | |
Skippers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Tigers | 3-4-5 |
| 37 | |
Brunswick Bruins | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Dragons | 4-5-6 |
| 38 | |
Varsity | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Skippers | 3-4-5 |
| 39 | |
Tigers | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Navigators | 2-3-6 |
| 40 | |
Varsity | def. | |
Brunswick Bruins | ||
| 41 | |
Skippers | def. | |
Navigators | ||
| 42 | |
Varsity | def. | |
Tigers | ||
| 43 | |
Dragons | def. | |
Navigators | ||
| 44 | |
Brunswick Bruins | def. | |
Tigers | ||
| 45 | |
Skippers | def. | |
Dragons | ||
| 64 | |
Brunswick Bruins | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bearcats | 3-4-5 |
| 65 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Spartans | 4-5-6 |
| 66 | |
Bearcats | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Tigers | 3-4-6 |
| 67 | |
Spartans | def. | |
Brunswick Bruins | ||
| 68 | |
Bearcats | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 |
| 69 | |
Tigers | def. | |
Spartans | ||
| 70 | |
Brunswick Bruins | def. | |
Varsity | ||
| 71 | |
Tigers | def. | |
Brunswick Bruins | ||
| 72 | |
Spartans | def. | |
Bearcats | ||
| 73 | |
Varsity | def. | |
Tigers | ||
| 74 | |
Brunswick Bruins | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bearcats | 3-5-6 |
| 75 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Spartans | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 76 | |
Bearcats | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tigers | 4-5-6 |
| 77 | |
Spartans | def. | |
Brunswick Bruins | ||
| 78 | |
Bearcats | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 79 | |
Tigers | def. | |
Spartans | ||
| 80 | |
Brunswick Bruins | def. | |
Varsity | ||
| 81 | |
Tigers | def. | |
Brunswick Bruins | ||
| 82 | |
Spartans | def. | |
Bearcats | ||
| 83 | |
Varsity | def. | |
Tigers | ||
| 84 | |
Brunswick Bruins | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bearcats | 3-4-5 |
| 85 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Spartans | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 86 | |
Tigers | def. | |
Bearcats | ||
| 87 | |
Spartans | def. | |
Brunswick Bruins | ||
| 88 | |
Bearcats | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 89 | |
Tigers | def. | |
Spartans | ||
| 90 | |
Brunswick Bruins | def. | |
Varsity | ||
| 91 | |
Tigers | def. | |
Brunswick Bruins | ||
| 92 | |
Spartans | def. | |
Bearcats | ||
| 93 | |
Varsity | def. | |
Tigers | ||
| 46 | |
Cardinals | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bearcats | 3-4-6 |
| 47 | |
Dragons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Spartans | 4-5-6 |
| 48 | |
Cardinals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Spartans | 4-5-6 |
| 49 | |
Bearcats | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Dragons | 3-4-5 |
| 50 | |
Dragons | def. | |
Cardinals | ||
| 51 | |
Bearcats | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Spartans | 4-5-6 |
| 52 | |
Bearcats | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cardinals | 3-5-6 |
| 53 | |
Dragons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Spartans | 4-5-6 |
| 54 | |
Cardinals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Spartans | 4-5-6 DNF |
| 55 | |
Bearcats | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Dragons | 4-5-6 |
| 56 | |
Dragons | def. | |
Cardinals | ||
| 57 | |
Bearcats | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Spartans | 4-5-6 |
| 58 | |
Bearcats | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cardinals | 4-5-6 |
| 59 | |
Dragons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Spartans | 4-5-6 |
| 60 | |
Cardinals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Spartans | 4-5-6 |
| 61 | |
Dragons | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bearcats | 3-4-5 |
| 62 | |
Dragons | def. | |
Cardinals | ||
| 63 | |
Bearcats | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Spartans | 4-5-6 |
| 94 | |
Cardinals | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Skippers | 3-4-6 |
| 95 | |
Dragons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Navigators | 4-5-6 |
| 96 | |
Cardinals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Dragons | 4-5-6 |
| 97 | |
Dragons | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Skippers | 3-4-5 |
| 98 | |
Cardinals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Navigators | 4-5-6 |
| 99 | |
Dragons | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Dragons | 3-5-6 |
| 100 | |
Skippers | def. | |
Navigators | ||
| 101 | |
Dragons | def. | |
Skippers | ||
| 102 | |
Dragons | def. | |
Cardinals | ||
| 103 | |
Navigators | def. | |
Dragons | ||
| 104 | |
Cardinals | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Skippers | 3-5-6 |
| 105 | |
Dragons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Navigators | 4-5-6 |
| 106 | |
Cardinals | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Dragons | 3-5-6 |
| 107 | |
Dragons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Skippers | 4-5-6 |
| 108 | |
Cardinals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Navigators | 4-5-6 |
| 109 | |
Dragons | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Dragons | 3-4-6 |
| 110 | |
Skippers | def. | |
Navigators | ||
| 111 | |
Dragons | def. | |
Skippers | ||
| 112 | |
Dragons | def. | |
Cardinals | ||
| 113 | |
Navigators | def. | |
Dragons | ||
| 114 | |
Cardinals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Skippers | 4-5-6 |
| 115 | |
Navigators | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Dragons | 1-4-6 |
| 116 | |
Cardinals | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Dragons | 3-5-6 |
| 117 | |
Dragons | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Skippers | 3-5-6 |
| 118 | |
Cardinals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Navigators | 4-5-6 |
| 119 | |
Dragons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Dragons | 4-5-6 |
| 120 | |
Skippers | def. | |
Navigators | ||
| 121 | |
Dragons | def. | |
Skippers | ||
| 122 | |
Dragons | def. | |
Cardinals | ||
| 123 | |
Navigators | def. | |
Dragons | ||
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Brunswick School | Brunswick Bruins | Harrison Gandy '28 Sebastian Sheppard '27 Wills Gandy '30 |
Henry Ginnel '26 Andrew Ohls '26 Sean Mensi '26 |
|
Greenwich Country Day School | Tigers | Grant Zucconi '28 Leighton Krueger '26 Mary Chickering '27 |
Charlie Clark '25 Harrison Thompson '26 Chris L'Helias '26 |
|
North Kingstown High School | Skippers | Alice Dunning '25 Anthony Laurent '26 Jacob Lentz '25 |
Ella Gregoire '26 Makenzie Moriarty '26 Freya Mcgeoch '27 |
|
Falmouth High School (ME) | Navigators | Molly Gerding '26 Myles Feuer '25 Noelle Caola '28 Wilson Langston '25 |
Ian Doherty '25 Anna King '28 Claire Kusel '28 Savannah Talbert '25 Beck Langston '27 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
