Brunswick School '28
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.66 (fleet 2.83) | 80 of 231 | −0.08 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 32–21 (60%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 2 | 13–12 | — |
| Spring 2025 | 3 | 19–9 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (53 matches) the record is 32–21 against 37.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−5.4). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 7 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 2026 NESSA Team Racing Champs (Presidents Trophy) | skipper | 2.13 | 0.46 | 10–10 | 14.9 | −1.67 | 4.7 | >99% |
| 2026-04-29 | FCSL 2026 Gold Cup | skipper | 2.18 | -0.21 | 3–2 | 4.4 | −2.39 | 2.1 | 99% |
| 2025-05-03 | NESSA Team Racing Championship (Presidents Trophy) | skipper | 2.34 | 2.61 | 9–8 | 8.4 | +0.27 | 0.1 | 47% |
| 2025-04-30 | FCSL 2025 Gold Cup | skipper | 2.34 | 2.55 | 4–1 | 3.9 | +0.21 | 0.0 | 69% |
| 2025-04-05 | IHYC Super Saturday 1 | skipper | 2.24 | 5.24 | 6–0 | 5.8 | ≥+3.00 | 0.2 | 86% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| FCSL 2026 Gold Cup | Skipper | TR | 5 | 60% | — |
| CT States 2026 | Skipper | A | 6 | 2.3 | 4.26 |
| 2026 NESSA Team Racing Champs (Presidents Trophy) | Skipper | TR | 20 | 50% | — |
| 2026 NESSA O'Day Qualifier - Groton, CT | Skipper | A | 8 | 3.4 | 2.36 |
| 2026 NESSA Fleet Racing Championship(O'Day Trophy) | Skipper | A | 12 | 5.2 | 3.68 |
| 2026 ISSA Mallory National Championship | Skipper | A | 14 | 13.7 | 2.44 |
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| NESSA Team Racing Championship (Presidents Trophy) | Skipper | TR | 17 | 53% | — |
| NESSA O'Day Qualifier - Groton, CT | Skipper | B | 7 | 2.4 | 2.90 |
| NESSA Fleet Racing Championship (O'Day Trophy) | Skipper | B | 15 | 5.7 | 2.57 |
| IHYC Super Saturday 1 | Skipper | TR | 12 | 100% | — |
| FCSL 2025 Gold Cup | Skipper | TR | 5 | 80% | — |
| CT States | Skipper | A | 7 | 5.7 | 1.82 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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