| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Greenwich Academy | Gators | 4–1 |
| 2 |  |
Greenwich High School | Cardinals | 4–1 |
| 3 |  |
Brunswick School | Bruins | 3–2 |
| 4 |  |
Greens Farms Academy | Dragons | 3–2 |
| 5 |  |
Fairfield Ludlowe High School | Falcons | 1–4 |
| 6 |  |
Darien High School | Blue Wave | 0–5 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 13,684 team race matches sailed before 2026-04-29, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 12 of 15 matches (80%) with a log-loss of 0.448 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness −0.35 ± 0.57: a typical event, more orderly than 21% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Greenwich Academy | 5.06 | 7.38 | 4–1 | 2.5 | +2.33 | 1.8 | 14% |
| 2 | Greenwich High School | 6.19 | 7.11 | 4–1 | 3.5 | +0.92 | 0.3 | 52% |
| 4 | Greens Farms Academy | 5.28 | 5.68 | 3–2 | 2.7 | +0.40 | 0.1 | 60% |
| 5 | Fairfield Ludlowe High School | 3.93 | 2.59 | 1–4 | 1.6 | −1.34 | 0.4 | 94% |
| 3 | Brunswick School | 7.33 | 5.20 | 3–2 | 4.3 | −2.13 | 1.7 | 99% |
| 6 | Darien High School | 1.56 | -1.44 | 0–5 | 0.3 | ≤−3.00 | 0.4 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sophia Alexopoulos | Greenwich Academy | 1.79 | 4.11 | 4–1 | 2.5 | +2.33 | 1.8 | 14% |
| Taylor Nanni | Greenwich Academy | 0.82 | 3.15 | 4–1 | 2.5 | +2.33 | 1.8 | 14% |
| Luca Larosa | Greenwich High School | 1.48 | 2.40 | 4–1 | 3.5 | +0.92 | 0.3 | 52% |
| Avery Beck | Greens Farms Academy | 1.91 | 2.31 | 3–2 | 2.7 | +0.40 | 0.1 | 60% |
| Colin Verrengia | Greens Farms Academy | 1.06 | 1.46 | 3–2 | 2.7 | +0.40 | 0.1 | 60% |
| Amelia Woodworth | Fairfield Ludlowe High School | 1.95 | 0.60 | 1–4 | 1.6 | −1.34 | 0.4 | 94% |
| Reid Smith | Fairfield Ludlowe High School | 0.82 | -0.52 | 1–4 | 1.6 | −1.34 | 0.4 | 94% |
| Harrison Gandy | Brunswick School | 2.25 | 0.12 | 3–2 | 4.3 | −2.13 | 1.7 | 99% |
| Sebastian Sheppard | Brunswick School | 2.23 | 0.10 | 3–2 | 4.3 | −2.13 | 1.7 | 99% |
| Chloe Dodd | Darien High School | 0.82 | -2.18 | 0–5 | 0.3 | ≤−3.00 | 0.4 | >99% |
| Tripp Greifzu | Darien High School | 0.45 | -2.55 | 0–5 | 0.3 | ≤−3.00 | 0.4 | >99% |
| Colin Casey | Darien High School | 0.43 | -2.57 | 0–5 | 0.3 | ≤−3.00 | 0.4 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Gators | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Cardinals | 3-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Bruins | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Dragons | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Blue Wave | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Cardinals | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bruins | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Gators | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Blue Wave | 3-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Dragons | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Bruins | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Blue Wave | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Cardinals | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Falcons | 2-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Dragons | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Gators | 3-4-5 |
| 10 | |
Falcons | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Blue Wave | 3-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Gators | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bruins | 1-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Cardinals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Dragons | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Gators | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Falcons | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Cardinals | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Blue Wave | 3-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Bruins | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Dragons | 4-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Greenwich Academy | Gators | Helena Borcherding '26 Sophia Alexopoulos '28 Taylor Nanni '27 |
Atley Dimsey '27 Ana Gazoni '27 Isla Van Biesen '27 |
|
Greenwich High School | Cardinals | Luca Larosa '26 Marcos Rotella '26 Richard Sykes '26 |
Garrett Wollins '26 Ashwin Aurora '28 Liam Dozier '27 Jesse Martines '29 |
|
Brunswick School | Bruins | Harrison Gandy '28 Sebastian Sheppard '27 William Whidden '29 |
Henry Ginnel '26 Andrew Ohls '26 Sean Mensi '26 |
|
Greens Farms Academy | Dragons | Avery Beck '27 Colin Verrengia '27 Glen Foster '26 |
Caroline Collins '26 Alec Crum '27 Ollie Ennico '28 |
|
Fairfield Ludlowe High School | Falcons | Amelia Woodworth '27 Cameron Cooleen '26 Reid Smith '27 |
Luke Demartino '27 Piper Youngs '29 Maeve Kenney '28 |
|
Darien High School | Blue Wave | Chloe Dodd '29 Colin Casey '27 Tripp Greifzu '29 |
Ella Seymour '26 John Lubeley '26 James Napoli '28 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
