Greenwich Academy '26
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.88 (fleet 3.03) | 47 of 231 | +0.01 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 29–23 (56%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 2 | 18–1 | — |
| Spring 2025 | 2 | 8–11 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 1 | 3–11 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (52 matches) the record is 29–23 against 26.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.4). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 7 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 2026 NESSA Team Racing Tournament (Terk Trophy) | skipper | 2.14 | 5.14 | 14–0 | 10.9 | ≥+3.00 | 4.9 | 2% |
| 2026-04-29 | FCSL 2026 Gold Cup | skipper | 2.04 | 4.37 | 4–1 | 2.6 | +2.33 | 1.8 | 15% |
| 2025-05-03 | NESSA Team Racing Championship (Presidents Trophy) | skipper | 2.13 | 1.58 | 5–9 | 6.0 | −0.55 | 0.3 | 84% |
| 2025-04-30 | FCSL 2025 Gold Cup | skipper | 1.93 | 1.91 | 3–2 | 3.0 | −0.02 | 0.0 | 70% |
| 2023-05-06 | NESSA Team Racing Championship (Presidents Trophy) | skipper | 2.28 | 1.66 | 3–11 | 4.1 | −0.61 | 0.4 | 85% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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