Falmouth High School (ME) '28
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.16 (fleet 1.90) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.02 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 9–12 (43%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 1 | 5–4 | — |
| Spring 2025 | 2 | 4–8 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (21 matches) the record is 9–12 against 9.2 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.2). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Clipper Challenge Spring 2026 | skipper | 1.31 | 1.49 | 5–4 | 4.7 | +0.18 | 0.0 | 56% |
| 2025-05-03 | Dick Levesque Maine State Championship | skipper | 1.25 | 1.01 | 4–5 | 4.4 | −0.24 | 0.1 | 73% |
| 2025-04-05 | IHYC Super Saturday 1 | skipper | 1.10 | -1.90 | 0–3 | 0.1 | ≤−3.00 | 0.1 | >99% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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