| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Milton Academy | Mustangs | 12–3 |
| 2 |  |
Unregistered NESSA | Southern ME | 10–1 |
| 3 |  |
Cape Elizabeth High School | Capers | 9–5 |
| 4 |  |
Falmouth High School (ME) | Navigators | 6–9 |
| 5 |  |
Portland High School | Bulldogs | 4–10 |
| 6 |  |
Yarmouth High School | Clippers | 3–11 |
| 7 |  |
Greely High School - Maine | Rangers | 2–7 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 13,067 team race matches sailed before 2026-04-04, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 11 of 18 matches (61%) with a log-loss of 0.599 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.17 ± 0.75: a typical event, more orderly than 54% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Milton Academy Mustangs | 1 | 3.18 school +0.30 | Dylan Cafferty / Eugenie Smith 1.46 Enzo Peabody / Aava Darvish Emmett Burghardt / Lilah Mueller | 71% | 7–2 (78%) | +0.6 |
| 4 | Falmouth High School (ME) Navigators | 2 | 2.39 | Beck Langston / Anna King Noelle Caola / Claire Kusel 1.29 Connor Kirkham / Nora Kelley | 53% | 5–4 (56%) | +0.2 |
| 5 | Portland High School Bulldogs | 4 | 1.78 school +0.13 | Nell Fernald / Bella Trimmer 0.53 Adrian Jenkins / Clem Dean 0.70 Henry Hutchinson / Sylvie Holmes | 38% | 4–5 (44%) | +0.6 |
| 6 | Yarmouth High School Clippers | 3 | 1.79 school −0.26 | Maxwell Miller / Eva Goldman 0.89 Simon Griswold / Syrin Hassan Reid Garofoli / Caius Sawhney 1.11 | 38% | 2–7 (22%) | −1.4 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Milton Academy | 3.18 | 3.62 | 7–2 | 6.4 | +0.44 | 0.1 | 50% |
| 5 | Portland High School | 1.78 | 2.15 | 4–5 | 3.4 | +0.37 | 0.1 | 46% |
| 4 | Falmouth High School (ME) | 2.39 | 2.52 | 5–4 | 4.8 | +0.13 | 0.0 | 58% |
| 6 | Yarmouth High School | 1.79 | 0.79 | 2–7 | 3.4 | −1.00 | 0.7 | 91% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Cafferty | Milton Academy | 1.46 | 1.90 | 7–2 | 6.4 | +0.44 | 0.1 | 50% |
| Enzo Peabody | Milton Academy | 0.91 | 1.35 | 7–2 | 6.4 | +0.44 | 0.1 | 50% |
| Emmett Burghardt | Milton Academy | 0.19 | 0.63 | 7–2 | 6.4 | +0.44 | 0.1 | 50% |
| Nell Fernald | Portland High School | 0.53 | 0.90 | 4–5 | 3.4 | +0.37 | 0.1 | 46% |
| Adrian Jenkins | Portland High School | 0.70 | 1.08 | 4–5 | 3.4 | +0.37 | 0.1 | 46% |
| Henry Hutchinson | Portland High School | 0.32 | 0.69 | 4–5 | 3.4 | +0.37 | 0.1 | 46% |
| Beck Langston | Falmouth High School (ME) | 0.69 | 0.83 | 5–4 | 4.8 | +0.13 | 0.0 | 58% |
| Noelle Caola | Falmouth High School (ME) | 1.29 | 1.43 | 5–4 | 4.8 | +0.13 | 0.0 | 58% |
| Connor Kirkham | Falmouth High School (ME) | 0.27 | 0.41 | 5–4 | 4.8 | +0.13 | 0.0 | 58% |
| Maxwell Miller | Yarmouth High School | 0.89 | -0.11 | 2–7 | 3.4 | −1.00 | 0.7 | 91% |
| Simon Griswold | Yarmouth High School | -0.18 | -1.18 | 2–7 | 3.4 | −1.00 | 0.7 | 91% |
| Reid Garofoli | Yarmouth High School | 1.11 | 0.11 | 2–7 | 3.4 | −1.00 | 0.7 | 91% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | Yarmouth High School | Portland High School | 48% | upset |
| 1 | 7 | Falmouth High School (ME) | Milton Academy | 38% | upset |
| 1 | 10 | Falmouth High School (ME) | Portland High School | 61% | |
| 1 | 13 | Yarmouth High School | Falmouth High School (ME) | 37% | upset |
| 1 | 18 | Milton Academy | Yarmouth High School | 73% | |
| 1 | 21 | Milton Academy | Portland High School | 74% | |
| 2 | 24 | Portland High School | Yarmouth High School | 50% | upset |
| 2 | 28 | Milton Academy | Falmouth High School (ME) | 65% | |
| 2 | 31 | Falmouth High School (ME) | Portland High School | 62% | |
| 2 | 33 | Falmouth High School (ME) | Yarmouth High School | 62% | |
| 2 | 37 | Milton Academy | Yarmouth High School | 75% | |
| 2 | 39 | Milton Academy | Portland High School | 76% | |
| 3 | 42 | Portland High School | Yarmouth High School | 49% | upset |
| 3 | 45 | Milton Academy | Falmouth High School (ME) | 66% | |
| 3 | 47 | Portland High School | Falmouth High School (ME) | 38% | upset |
| 3 | 50 | Falmouth High School (ME) | Yarmouth High School | 61% | |
| 3 | 55 | Milton Academy | Yarmouth High School | 75% | |
| 3 | 58 | Portland High School | Milton Academy | 24% | upset |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Rangers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Navigators | 3-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Mustangs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Capers | 3-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Clippers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Capers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Navigators | 3-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Rangers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Mustangs | 3-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Southern ME | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Navigators | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Mustangs | 1-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Capers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rangers | 3-4-5 |
| 9 | |
Southern ME | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Clippers | 3-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Navigators | 2-3-6 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 1-4-5 DSQ |
| 11 | |
Clippers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rangers | 3-4-5 |
| 12 | |
Southern ME | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Capers | 3-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Clippers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Navigators | 3-4-5 |
| 14 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rangers | 3-4-5 |
| 15 | |
Southern ME | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mustangs | 4-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Southern ME | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Navigators | 1-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Capers | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 2-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Mustangs | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Clippers | 3-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Southern ME | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rangers | 3-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Capers | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Clippers | 2-4-5 |
| 21 | |
Mustangs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-5 |
| 22 | |
Navigators | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Rangers | 2-4-6 |
| 23 | |
Mustangs | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Capers | 2-4-6 |
| 24 | |
Bulldogs | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Clippers | 2-3-6 |
| 25 | |
Capers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Navigators | 3-4-6 |
| 26 | |
Mustangs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Rangers | 4-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Southern ME | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Mustangs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Navigators | 3-4-5 |
| 29 | |
Capers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Rangers | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 30 | |
Southern ME | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Clippers | 4-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Navigators | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 1-4-6 |
| 32 | |
Southern ME | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Capers | 3-5-6 |
| 33 | |
Navigators | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Clippers | 1-4-6 |
| 34 | |
Mustangs | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Southern ME | 3-5-6 |
| 35 | |
Southern ME | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Navigators | 4-5-6 |
| 36 | |
Capers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-5 |
| 37 | |
Mustangs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Clippers | 4-5-6 |
| 38 | |
Capers | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Clippers | 2-4-6 |
| 39 | |
Mustangs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 4-5-6 |
| 40 | |
Rangers | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS | def. | |
Navigators | 1-2-3 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 41 | |
Mustangs | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Capers | 2-5-6 |
| 42 | |
Bulldogs | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Clippers | 2-5-6 |
| 43 | |
Capers | 1-2-3 DNS,DNS,DNS | def. | |
Navigators | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 44 | |
Mustangs | 1-2-3 DNS,DNS,DNS | def. | |
Rangers | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 45 | |
Mustangs | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Navigators | 3-5-6 |
| 46 | |
Capers | 1-2-3 DNS,DNS,DNS | def. | |
Rangers | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 47 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Navigators | 3-4-5 |
| 48 | |
Clippers | 1-2-3 DNS,DNS,DNS | def. | |
Rangers | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 49 | |
Southern ME | 1-2-3 DNS,DNS,DNS | def. | |
Capers | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 50 | |
Navigators | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Clippers | 1-5-6 |
| 51 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-3 DNS,DNS,DNS | def. | |
Rangers | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 52 | |
Southern ME | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS | def. | |
Mustangs | 1-2-3 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 53 | |
Southern ME | 1-2-3 DNS,DNS,DNS | def. | |
Navigators | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 54 | |
Capers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-5 |
| 55 | |
Mustangs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Clippers | 3-4-5 |
| 56 | |
Southern ME | 1-2-3 DNS,DNS,DNS | def. | |
Rangers | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 57 | |
Clippers | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS | def. | |
Capers | 1-2-3 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 58 | |
Bulldogs | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS | def. | |
Mustangs | 1-2-3 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Milton Academy | Mustangs | Dylan Cafferty '27 Emmett Burghardt '27 Enzo Peabody '28 |
Eugenie Smith '28 Lilah Mueller '26 Aava Darvish '27 |
|
Falmouth High School (ME) | Navigators | Beck Langston '27 Connor Kirkham '29 Noelle Caola '28 |
Anna King '28 Nora Kelley '29 Claire Kusel '28 |
|
Portland High School | Bulldogs | Adrian Jenkins '28 Henry Hutchinson '29 Nell Fernald '27 |
Clem Dean '26 Sylvie Holmes '26 Bella Trimmer '26 |
|
Yarmouth High School | Clippers | Maxwell Miller '28 Reid Garofoli '27 Simon Griswold '28 |
Eva Goldman '28 Caius Sawhney '28 Syrin Hassan '27 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
