Portland High School '27
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.13 (fleet 0.18) | 224 of 231 | +0.02 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 14–27 (34%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 1 | 4–5 | — |
| Spring 2025 | 2 | 6–9 | — |
| Spring 2024 | 3 | 4–13 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 6 graded regattas (41 matches) the record is 14–27 against 11.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.3). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Clipper Challenge Spring 2026 | skipper | 0.51 | 1.08 | 4–5 | 3.1 | +0.57 | 0.3 | 36% |
| 2025-05-03 | Dick Levesque Maine State Championship | skipper | 0.61 | 1.68 | 4–5 | 2.4 | +1.06 | 1.0 | 20% |
| 2025-04-05 | Greevus Team Race | skipper | 0.47 | 0.50 | 2–4 | 2.0 | +0.03 | 0.0 | 66% |
| 2024-05-18 | Dick Levesque Maine States | skipper | 0.45 | -0.60 | 1–4 | 1.8 | −1.05 | 0.4 | 89% |
| 2024-04-13 | Bulldog Classic | skipper | 0.44 | 0.73 | 2–7 | 1.7 | +0.29 | 0.1 | 53% |
| 2024-04-06 | Ranger Rally | skipper | 0.41 | 0.81 | 1–2 | 0.8 | +0.40 | 0.0 | 61% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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