| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Unregistered-NESSA | Southern ME | 18–2 |
| 2 |  |
Falmouth High School (ME) | Navigators | 13–7 |
| 3 |  |
Greely High School - Maine | Rangers | 9–11 |
| 4 |  |
Cape Elizabeth High School | Capers | 8–12 |
| 5 |  |
Portland High School | Bulldogs | 2–18 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 11,466 team race matches sailed before 2024-05-18, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 4 of 5 matches (80%) with a log-loss of 0.560 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Cape Elizabeth High School Capers | 1 | 1.48 school −0.18 | Story Straw / Keaton Mosunic 1.08 Luca Kleeman / Gideon Straw 0.44 Ruby Mcgonigal / Shiloh Doody 0.12 | 64% | 4–1 (80%) | +0.8 |
| 5 | Portland High School Bulldogs | 2 | 0.75 school +0.10 | Lizzy Wallace / Clem Dean 0.30 Nell Fernald / Bella Trimmer 0.45 Harriet Mishkin / Elizabeth Tierney -0.22 | 36% | 1–4 (20%) | −0.8 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Cape Elizabeth High School | 1.48 | 2.53 | 4–1 | 3.2 | +1.05 | 0.4 | 41% |
| 5 | Portland High School | 0.75 | -0.29 | 1–4 | 1.8 | −1.05 | 0.4 | 89% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Story Straw | Cape Elizabeth High School | 1.08 | 2.13 | 4–1 | 3.2 | +1.05 | 0.4 | 41% |
| Luca Kleeman | Cape Elizabeth High School | 0.44 | 1.48 | 4–1 | 3.2 | +1.05 | 0.4 | 41% |
| Ruby Mcgonigal | Cape Elizabeth High School | 0.12 | 1.16 | 4–1 | 3.2 | +1.05 | 0.4 | 41% |
| Lizzy Wallace | Portland High School | 0.30 | -0.74 | 1–4 | 1.8 | −1.05 | 0.4 | 89% |
| Nell Fernald | Portland High School | 0.45 | -0.60 | 1–4 | 1.8 | −1.05 | 0.4 | 89% |
| Harriet Mishkin | Portland High School | -0.22 | -1.27 | 1–4 | 1.8 | −1.05 | 0.4 | 89% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | Cape Elizabeth High School | Portland High School | 66% | |
| 2 | 12 | Cape Elizabeth High School | Portland High School | 64% | |
| 3 | 25 | Portland High School | Cape Elizabeth High School | 36% | upset |
| 4 | 35 | Cape Elizabeth High School | Portland High School | 63% | |
| 5 | 43 | Cape Elizabeth High School | Portland High School | 63% |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Southern ME | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Navigators | 3-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Capers | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 2-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Capers | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Rangers | 2-4-5 |
| 4 | |
Navigators | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-5 |
| 5 | |
Southern ME | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rangers | 3-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Navigators | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Capers | 3-4-5 |
| 7 | |
Southern ME | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Navigators | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rangers | 3-4-5 |
| 9 | |
Southern ME | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Capers | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Rangers | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 2-3-6 |
| 11 | |
Southern ME | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Navigators | 3-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Capers | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 2-3-6 |
| 13 | |
Rangers | 1-5-6 | def. | |
Capers | 2-3-4 DSQ |
| 14 | |
Navigators | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-5 |
| 15 | |
Southern ME | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Rangers | 2-3-6 |
| 16 | |
Capers | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Navigators | 1-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Southern ME | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 2-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Navigators | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rangers | 3-4-5 |
| 19 | |
Southern ME | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Capers | 3-4-6 |
| 20 | |
Rangers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 1-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Navigators | 2-5-6 | def. | |
Southern ME | 1-3-4 DSQ |
| 22 | |
Rangers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Capers | 3-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Navigators | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-6 |
| 24 | |
Southern ME | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rangers | 3-4-5 |
| 25 | |
Bulldogs | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Capers | 1-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Navigators | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rangers | 3-4-6 |
| 27 | |
Southern ME | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-5 |
| 28 | |
Navigators | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Capers | 2-4-6 |
| 29 | |
Rangers | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 2-4-5 |
| 30 | |
Southern ME | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Capers | 4-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Southern ME | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Navigators | 4-5-6 |
| 32 | |
Capers | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Rangers | 2-3-6 |
| 33 | |
Navigators | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-5 |
| 34 | |
Southern ME | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rangers | 3-5-6 |
| 35 | |
Capers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-5 |
| 36 | |
Navigators | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rangers | 3-5-6 |
| 37 | |
Southern ME | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 1-5-6 |
| 38 | |
Navigators | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Capers | 3-4-6 |
| 39 | |
Rangers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-5 |
| 40 | |
Southern ME | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Capers | 3-4-6 |
| 41 | |
Bulldogs | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Navigators | 2-5-6 |
| 42 | |
Southern ME | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rangers | 3-5-6 |
| 43 | |
Capers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 4-5-6 |
| 44 | |
Navigators | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Southern ME | 1-5-6 |
| 45 | |
Rangers | 2-4-6 | def. | |
Capers | 1-3-5 DSQ |
| 46 | |
Southern ME | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-6 |
| 47 | |
Capers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Navigators | 3-4-5 |
| 48 | |
Rangers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-5-6 |
| 49 | |
Southern ME | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Capers | 2-4-6 |
| 50 | |
Rangers | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Navigators | 2-4-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Cape Elizabeth High School | Capers | Luca Kleeman '27 Ruby Mcgonigal '28 Story Straw '25 |
Gideon Straw '28 Shiloh Doody '27 Keaton Mosunic '28 |
|
Portland High School | Bulldogs | Harriet Mishkin '25 Lizzy Wallace '25 Nell Fernald '27 |
Elizabeth Tierney '25 Clem Dean '26 Bella Trimmer '23 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
