Cape Elizabeth High School '28
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.51 (fleet 0.82) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as crew 7–6 (54%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 | 1 | — | 4–1 |
| Spring 2023 | 1 | — | 3–5 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (13 matches) the record is 7–6 against 4.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.2). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-05-18 | Dick Levesque Maine States | crew | 0.44 | 1.48 | 4–1 | 3.2 | +1.05 | 0.4 | 41% |
| 2023-05-20 | Dick Levesque Maine State Team Racing Championship | crew | 0.21 | 1.40 | 3–5 | 1.6 | +1.19 | 1.0 | 20% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| ISSA Great Oaks Invitational Silver | Skipper | A | 4 | 5.0 | 1.23 |
| ISSA Great Oaks Invitational Green | Skipper | A | 4 | 9.2 | -0.27 |
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Dick Levesque Maine States | Crew | TR | 20 | 40% | — |
| Clipper Challenge | Skipper | A | 9 | 3.6 | 0.03 |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Dick Levesque Maine State Team Racing Championship | Crew | TR | 14 | 43% | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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