| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Unregistered-NESSA | Southern ME | 8–0 |
| 2 |  |
Cape Cod Academy | Seahawks | 8–2 |
| 3 |  |
Falmouth High School (ME) | Navigators | 5–5 |
| 4 |  |
Lincoln Academy | Eagles | 3–5 |
| 5 |  |
Portland High School | Bulldogs | 2–7 |
| 6 |  |
Greely High School - Maine | Rangers | 1–8 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 10,570 team race matches sailed before 2024-04-06, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 2 of 3 matches (67%) with a log-loss of 0.643 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Cape Cod Academy Seahawks | 1 | 2.46 school +0.62 | Nick Kowaleski / Jarren Blake 0.10 Alex Daigle / Alex Hermon Lydia Stanney / Grace Smith 0.95 | 73% | 2–1 (67%) | −0.2 |
| 5 | Portland High School Bulldogs | 2 | 1.17 | Charlotte Mcdonald / Isla Norton 0.55 Lizzy Wallace / Elizabeth Tierney Nell Fernald / Clem Dean | 27% | 1–2 (33%) | +0.2 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Portland High School | 1.17 | 1.57 | 1–2 | 0.8 | +0.40 | 0.0 | 61% |
| 2 | Cape Cod Academy | 2.46 | 2.06 | 2–1 | 2.2 | −0.40 | 0.0 | 82% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lizzy Wallace | Portland High School | 0.13 | 0.53 | 1–2 | 0.8 | +0.40 | 0.0 | 61% |
| Nell Fernald | Portland High School | 0.41 | 0.81 | 1–2 | 0.8 | +0.40 | 0.0 | 61% |
| Nick Kowaleski | Cape Cod Academy | 0.10 | -0.30 | 2–1 | 2.2 | −0.40 | 0.0 | 82% |
| Alex Daigle | Cape Cod Academy | 0.70 | 0.30 | 2–1 | 2.2 | −0.40 | 0.0 | 82% |
| Lydia Stanney | Cape Cod Academy | 0.95 | 0.55 | 2–1 | 2.2 | −0.40 | 0.0 | 82% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | Cape Cod Academy | Portland High School | 73% | |
| 2 | 22 | Cape Cod Academy | Portland High School | 73% | |
| 3 | 42 | Portland High School | Cape Cod Academy | 27% | upset |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Rangers | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Navigators | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 1-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Southern ME | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahawks | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Navigators | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Rangers | 2-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Southern ME | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Eagles | 3-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-5 |
| 7 | |
Southern ME | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Navigators | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Bulldogs | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Rangers | 2-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Eagles | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Southern ME | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Eagles | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Navigators | 3-4-5 |
| 12 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rangers | 3-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Eagles | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 2-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Southern ME | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Rangers | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Navigators | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 1-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Rangers | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Navigators | 2-3-6 |
| 17 | |
Seahawks | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Eagles | 1-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Southern ME | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Navigators | 3-4-6 |
| 20 | |
Bulldogs | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Rangers | 2-4-6 |
| 21 | |
Southern ME | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Eagles | 4-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 4-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Navigators | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Eagles | 1-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Southern ME | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Rangers | 4-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Bulldogs | def. | |
Eagles | ||
| 26 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Rangers | 4-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Southern ME | def. | |
Navigators | ||
| 28 | |
Eagles | def. | |
Rangers | ||
| 29 | |
Navigators | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 4-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Seahawks | def. | |
Southern ME | ||
| 31 | |
Seahawks | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Navigators | 2-5-6 |
| 32 | |
Rangers | def. | |
Southern ME | ||
| 33 | |
Eagles | def. | |
Bulldogs | ||
| 34 | |
Seahawks | def. | |
Southern ME | ||
| 35 | |
Navigators | def. | |
Eagles | ||
| 36 | |
Bulldogs | def. | |
Rangers | ||
| 37 | |
Southern ME | def. | |
Eagles | ||
| 38 | |
Seahawks | def. | |
Rangers | ||
| 39 | |
Navigators | def. | |
Bulldogs | ||
| 40 | |
Eagles | def. | |
Rangers | ||
| 41 | |
Southern ME | def. | |
Navigators | ||
| 42 | |
Bulldogs | def. | |
Seahawks | ||
| 43 | |
Rangers | def. | |
Navigators | ||
| 44 | |
Eagles | def. | |
Seahawks | ||
| 45 | |
Southern ME | def. | |
Bulldogs | ||
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Cape Cod Academy | Seahawks | Alex Daigle '25 Lydia Stanney '27 Nick Kowaleski '25 Noah Belson '25 |
Alex Hermon '26 Noah Belson '25 Grace Smith '26 Jarren Blake '24 Maddie Defrancisci '26 |
|
Portland High School | Bulldogs | Charlotte Mcdonald '25 Harriet Mishkin '25 Lizzy Wallace '25 Nell Fernald '27 |
Isla Norton '26 Sylvie Holmes '26 Bella Trimmer '23 Elizabeth Tierney '25 Tray Miller '26 Clem Dean '26 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
