Cape Cod Academy '25
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| -0.11 (fleet -0.23) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.03 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 9–9 (50%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 | 1 | 2–1 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 1 | 7–8 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (18 matches) the record is 9–9 against 5.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+3.3). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-06 | Ranger Rally | skipper | 0.10 | -0.30 | 2–1 | 2.2 | −0.40 | 0.0 | 82% |
| 2023-04-15 | April 15 8x Team Race | skipper | -0.27 | 1.52 | 7–8 | 3.5 | +1.79 | 3.6 | 3% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| Cape & Islands Champs | Skipper | B | 3 | 8.0 | 0.08 |
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Tabor Fall Invite - 420 | Skipper | B | 5 | 15.4 | -1.14 |
| Roy Williams Invitational Regatta | Skipper | B | 3 | 12.7 | 0.08 |
| Duxbury Bay Maritime School Fall Invitational | Skipper | B | 4 | 9.2 | -0.22 |
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Ranger Rally | Skipper | TR | 10 | 80% | — |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Roy Williams Invitational Regatta | Skipper | B | 3 | 12.0 | -0.34 |
| NESSA Fall FunFest (Gleekman Trophy) | Skipper | B | 7 | 14.4 | -0.80 |
| Casco Bay Open | Skipper | B | 2 | 7.5 | 0.42 |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| O'Day Qualifier - Hyannis, MA | Skipper | A | 8 | 11.9 | -1.02 |
| Cape & Island League Fleet Championship | Skipper | A | 2 | 13.5 | -1.91 |
| April 15 8x Team Race | Skipper | TR | 16 | 38% | — |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| St. George's Fall Invitational | Skipper | B | 2 | 14.0 | -0.98 |
| DBMS Invitational | Skipper | A | 2 | 9.0 | — |
| Arnold Brown 2022 | Skipper | B | 2 | 9.0 | -1.68 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| 2021 NESSA Fall Funfest (Gleekman Trophy) | Skipper | B | 7 | 12.4 | -2.70 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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