April 15 8x Team Race

HostCape Elizabeth
Date04/15/2023
TypeIn-League
BoatZ420
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Tabor Academy	Seawolves	14–0
2	Lincoln Academy	Eagles	12–2
3	Unregistered-NESSA	Southern Maine	11–6
4	Portland High School	Bulldogs	9–7
5	Cape Cod Academy	Seahawks	6–10
6	Falmouth High School	Navigators	5–10
7	Cheverus High School	Varsity	4–12
8	Boothbay RHS	SeaHawks Gold	0–14

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 9,404 team race matches sailed before 2023-04-15, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 33 of 45 matches (73%) with a log-loss of 0.534 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.93 ± 0.35: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 8% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Tabor Academy Seawolves	1	6.76 school +0.47	Wyatt Bischoff / Theo Binder 2.35 Jonnie Ciffolillo / Jack Schneider 2.60 10–2 Will Hurd / Lucy Lack 8–1 Griffin Beaulieu / Fiona Hoben 1.68 6–0 Lizzie Cochran / Siena Adduci 2–1	96%	13–2 (87%)	−1.4
2	Lincoln Academy Eagles	2	3.54 school −0.45	Otto Schoenthal / Ottis Frost Toby Clarkson / Piper Carleton 1.85 9–3 Kate Mason / Harper Shepard 9–3 Toby Clarkson / Aj Shepard 1.79 2–1 Kate Mason / Piper Carleton 2–1	67%	11–4 (73%)	+1.0
4	Portland High School Bulldogs	3	2.90 school −0.07	Posie Cabaniss / Hazel Johnson 1.35 Aoife Mahoney / Jack Taylor 1.01 Charlotte Mcdonald / Frankie Sparrow 0.52	58%	8–7 (53%)	−0.7
5	Cape Cod Academy Seahawks	6	0.85 school +0.18	Lydia Stanney / Alex Herman Noah Belson / Abbie Catalano 7–2 Nick Kowaleski / Maddie Defrancisci 7–2 Noah Belson / Jarren Blake 0–6 Nick Kowaleski / Abbie Catalano 0–6	23%	7–8 (47%)	+3.5
6	Falmouth High School Navigators	4	1.31 school −0.35	Ben Wintersteen / Benjamin Gelchinsky 0.68 Miles Mannion / No Name Ii No Name / Myles Feuer	30%	4–11 (27%)	−0.6
8	Boothbay RHS SeaHawks Gold	5	1.00 school −0.06	Hannah Hills / Duncan Hardwick Nora Conlin / Meg Sledge Camden Peck / Iris Conlin	26%	2–13 (13%)	−1.9

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
5	Cape Cod Academy	0.85	2.64	7–8	3.5	+1.79	3.6	3%
2	Lincoln Academy	3.54	4.30	11–4	10.0	+0.75	0.4	37%
6	Falmouth High School	1.31	1.01	4–11	4.6	−0.31	0.1	75%
4	Portland High School	2.90	2.55	8–7	8.7	−0.35	0.1	78%
8	Boothbay RHS	1.00	-0.23	2–13	3.9	−1.23	1.2	95%
1	Tabor Academy	6.76	4.88	13–2	14.4	−1.88	1.8	98%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Nick Kowaleski	Cape Cod Academy	-0.27	1.52	7–8	3.5	+1.79	3.6	3%
Lydia Stanney	Cape Cod Academy	0.66	2.45	7–8	3.5	+1.79	3.6	3%
Otto Schoenthal	Lincoln Academy	0.97	1.73	11–4	10.0	+0.75	0.4	37%
Kate Mason	Lincoln Academy	1.02	1.77	11–4	10.0	+0.75	0.4	37%
Ben Wintersteen	Falmouth High School	0.68	0.37	4–11	4.6	−0.31	0.1	75%
No Name	Falmouth High School	0.27	-0.03	4–11	4.6	−0.31	0.1	75%
Aoife Mahoney	Portland High School	1.01	0.66	8–7	8.7	−0.35	0.1	78%
Nora Conlin	Boothbay RHS	0.54	-0.70	2–13	3.9	−1.23	1.2	95%
Will Hurd	Tabor Academy	1.35	-0.48	8–1	8.7	−1.84	0.9	97%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Lincoln Academy	Falmouth High School	86%
1	3	Tabor Academy	Cape Cod Academy	99%
1	6	Lincoln Academy	Cape Cod Academy	90%
1	8	Tabor Academy	Boothbay RHS	99%
1	11	Tabor Academy	Lincoln Academy	92%
1	12	Portland High School	Boothbay RHS	83%
1	15	Portland High School	Falmouth High School	79%
1	16	Lincoln Academy	Boothbay RHS	89%
1	18	Portland High School	Cape Cod Academy	84%
1	20	Falmouth High School	Boothbay RHS	55%
1	21	Tabor Academy	Portland High School	92%
1	23	Cape Cod Academy	Falmouth High School	41%	upset
1	25	Lincoln Academy	Portland High School	62%
1	26	Tabor Academy	Falmouth High School	99%
1	28	Cape Cod Academy	Boothbay RHS	47%	upset
2	29	Lincoln Academy	Falmouth High School	85%
2	31	Tabor Academy	Cape Cod Academy	99%
2	34	Lincoln Academy	Cape Cod Academy	89%
2	36	Tabor Academy	Boothbay RHS	99%
2	39	Tabor Academy	Lincoln Academy	92%
2	40	Portland High School	Boothbay RHS	81%
2	43	Falmouth High School	Portland High School	23%	upset
2	44	Lincoln Academy	Boothbay RHS	88%
2	46	Portland High School	Cape Cod Academy	83%
2	48	Falmouth High School	Boothbay RHS	55%
2	49	Tabor Academy	Portland High School	92%
2	51	Cape Cod Academy	Falmouth High School	41%	upset
2	53	Lincoln Academy	Portland High School	62%
2	54	Tabor Academy	Falmouth High School	99%
2	56	Cape Cod Academy	Boothbay RHS	47%	upset
3	57	Lincoln Academy	Falmouth High School	85%
3	59	Tabor Academy	Cape Cod Academy	99%
3	62	Lincoln Academy	Cape Cod Academy	89%
3	64	Boothbay RHS	Tabor Academy	1%	upset
3	67	Lincoln Academy	Tabor Academy	8%	upset
3	68	Portland High School	Boothbay RHS	80%
3	71	Portland High School	Falmouth High School	77%
3	72	Boothbay RHS	Lincoln Academy	12%	upset
3	74	Cape Cod Academy	Portland High School	18%	upset
3	76	Falmouth High School	Boothbay RHS	55%
3	77	Tabor Academy	Portland High School	92%
3	79	Cape Cod Academy	Falmouth High School	42%	upset
3	81	Portland High School	Lincoln Academy	38%	upset
3	82	Tabor Academy	Falmouth High School	99%
3	84	Cape Cod Academy	Boothbay RHS	47%	upset

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Eagles	1-3-5	def.	Navigators	2-4-6
2	Bulldogs	2-3-5	def.	Varsity	1-4-6
3	Seawolves	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
4	Southern Maine	1-2-3	def.	SeaHawks Gold	4-5-6
5	Navigators	1-2-5	def.	Varsity	3-4-6 DNF
6	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Seahawks	1-5-6
7	Southern Maine	1-4-5	def.	Bulldogs	2-3-6
8	Seawolves	1-2-3	def.	SeaHawks Gold	4-5-6
9	Varsity	2-3-5	def.	Seahawks	1-4-6
10	Southern Maine	1-2-4	def.	Navigators	3-5-6
11	Seawolves	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
12	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	SeaHawks Gold	4-5-6
13	Southern Maine	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
14	Seawolves	1-2-4	def.	Varsity	3-5-6
15	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Navigators	3-4-6
16	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	SeaHawks Gold	4-5-6
17	Seawolves	1-2-4	def.	Southern Maine	3-5-6
18	Bulldogs	2-3-5	def.	Seahawks	1-4-6
19	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Varsity	3-5-6
20	Navigators	1-2-4	def.	SeaHawks Gold	3-5-6
21	Seawolves	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
22	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Southern Maine	4-5-6
23	Seahawks	1-3-6	def.	Navigators	2-4-5
24	Varsity	2-3-5	def.	SeaHawks Gold	1-4-6
25	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
26	Seawolves	1-2-3	def.	Navigators	4-5-6
27	Southern Maine	1-2-4	def.	Varsity	3-5-6
28	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	SeaHawks Gold	3-5-6
29	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Navigators	3-5-6
30	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Varsity	1-5-6
31	Seawolves	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
32	Southern Maine	1-2-4	def.	SeaHawks Gold	3-5-6
33	Navigators	1-2-6	def.	Varsity	3-4-5
34	Eagles	1-3-6	def.	Seahawks	2-4-5
35	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Southern Maine	1-5-6
36	Seawolves	1-2-3	def.	SeaHawks Gold	4-5-6
37	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Varsity	3-5-6
38	Southern Maine	1-3-4	def.	Navigators	2-5-6
39	Seawolves	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
40	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	SeaHawks Gold	3-5-6
41	Southern Maine	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
42	Seawolves	1-2-3	def.	Varsity	4-5-6
43	Navigators	1-3-6	def.	Bulldogs	2-4-5
44	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	SeaHawks Gold	4-5-6 DNF
45	Seawolves	1-2-3	def.	Southern Maine	4-5-6
46	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
47	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Varsity	3-4-5
48	Navigators	1-2-3	def.	SeaHawks Gold	4-5-6
49	Seawolves	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
50	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Southern Maine	3-4-5
51	Seahawks	1-3-4	def.	Navigators	2-5-6
52	Varsity	1-3-4	def.	SeaHawks Gold	2-5-6
53	Eagles	1-3-4	def.	Bulldogs	2-5-6
54	Seawolves	1-2-3	def.	Navigators	4-5-6
55	Varsity	1-3-6	def.	Southern Maine	2-4-5
56	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	SeaHawks Gold	4-5-6
57	Eagles		def.	Navigators
58	Bulldogs		def.	Varsity
59	Seawolves		def.	Seahawks
60	Southern Maine		def.	SeaHawks Gold
61	Navigators		def.	Varsity
62	Eagles		def.	Seahawks
63	Southern Maine	1-3-4	def.	Bulldogs	2-5-6
64	SeaHawks Gold		def.	Seawolves
65	Seahawks	1-3-5	def.	Varsity	2-4-6
66	Navigators		def.	Southern Maine
67	Eagles		def.	Seawolves
68	Bulldogs		def.	SeaHawks Gold
69	Southern Maine	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
70	Varsity		def.	Seawolves
71	Bulldogs	1-3-5	def.	Navigators	2-4-6
72	SeaHawks Gold		def.	Eagles
73	Southern Maine		def.	Seawolves
74	Seahawks		def.	Bulldogs
75	Varsity		def.	Eagles
76	Navigators		def.	SeaHawks Gold
77	Seawolves		def.	Bulldogs
78	Southern Maine		def.	Eagles
79	Seahawks		def.	Navigators
80	SeaHawks Gold		def.	Varsity
81	Bulldogs		def.	Eagles
82	Seawolves		def.	Navigators
83	Southern Maine	1-2-4	def.	Varsity	3-5-6
84	Seahawks		def.	SeaHawks Gold

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Tabor Academy	Seawolves	Griffin Beaulieu '23 Jonnie Ciffolillo '23 Lizzie Cochran '23 Will Hurd '23 Wyatt Bischoff '23	Fiona Hoben '24 Jack Schneider '25 Siena Adduci '23 Lucy Lack '24 Theo Binder '25
Lincoln Academy	Eagles	Kate Mason '23 Otto Schoenthal '25 Toby Clarkson '24	Harper Shepard '25 Piper Carleton '24 Ottis Frost '25 Aj Shepard '23
Portland High School	Bulldogs	Aoife Mahoney '23 Charlotte Mcdonald '25 Posie Cabaniss '23	Jack Taylor '23 Isla Norton '26 Frankie Sparrow '23 Ian Gallagher '25 Hazel Johnson '23 Bella Trimmer '23
Cape Cod Academy	Seahawks	Lydia Stanney '27 Nick Kowaleski '25 Noah Belson '25	Alex Herman '26 Maddie Defrancisci '26 Abbie Catalano '24 Jarren Blake '24
Falmouth High School	Navigators	Ben Wintersteen '23 Miles Mannion '24 No Name '25	Benjamin Gelchinsky '25 No Name Ii '23 Myles Feuer '25
Boothbay RHS	SeaHawks Gold	Camden Peck '27 Hannah Hills '25 Nora Conlin '23	Iris Conlin '26 Duncan Hardwick '24 Meg Sledge '24

Conditions — 04/15/2023 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 66% · Pressure 1016.5 hPa

Temperature

53°F

↑ 55°F ↓ 49°F

Feels like 48°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

6.4 kn

avg · max 8.2 kn

Gusts to 21.0 kn

From ENE (74°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover96% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity66% Pressure1016.5 hPa

What this breeze does at Cape Elizabeth — from fleet racing

Breeze: E about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Cape Elizabeth in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.03)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Cape Elizabeth by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at Cape Elizabeth, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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