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2024 Downeast Fleet Racing Invitational

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Southern ME 2 49 15 64
2 Mt. Desert Island HS Mt. Desert Island HS Varsity 34 35 69
3 Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Southern ME 1 23 50 73
4 Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA ME 1 35 MRP 57 MRP 92 MRP
5 Camden Hills RHS Camden Hills RHS Varsity 1 40 MRP 53 MRP 93 MRP
6 Portland High School Portland High School Bulldogs 40 69 109
7 Oceanside High School Oceanside High School Mariners 70 MRP 47 MRP 117 MRP
8 Greely High School - Maine Greely High School - Maine Rangers 79 MRP 60 MRP 139 MRP
9 Cheverus High School Cheverus High School Varsity 68 79 147
10 Mt. Desert Island HS Mt. Desert Island HS Trojans 83 MRP 78 MRP 161 MRP
11 Camden Hills RHS Camden Hills RHS Varsity 2 118 MRP 45 163 MRP
12 Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA ME 2 72 MRP 93 MRP 165 MRP
13 Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA ME 3 93 MRP 97 MRP 190 MRP
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Southern ME 1 5 1 4 4 1 2 6 23 Noah Reischmann '24
Mira Broussard '24
Mt. Desert Island HS Mt. Desert Island HS Varsity 2 5 6 7 4 6 4 34 Alex Donahue '26
Cora Lester '26
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA ME 1 1 3 1 2 2 4 2 35 MRP No Show
No Show
Camden Hills RHS Camden Hills RHS Varsity 1 3 2 5 1 3 5 1 40 MRP No Show
No Show
Portland High School Portland High School Bulldogs 9 4 3 6 12 1 5 40 Nell Fernald '27
Vio Voltz '24
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Southern ME 2 6 9 10 3 6 3 12 49 Mairead Ferrie '24
Sarah Zucker '24
Cheverus High School Cheverus High School Varsity 12 11 7 11 10 8 9 68 Aggie Lamontagne '25
Lannie Lamontagne '25
Oceanside High School Oceanside High School Mariners 4 12 2 5 9 10 8 70 MRP No Show
No Show
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA ME 2 8 7 8 10 7 9 3 72 MRP No Show
No Show
Greely High School - Maine Greely High School - Maine Rangers 7 10 11 8 5 11 7 79 MRP No Show
No Show
Mt. Desert Island HS Mt. Desert Island HS Trojans 11 6 9 9 11 7 10 83 MRP No Show
No Show
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA ME 3 10 8 12 12 8 12 11 93 MRP No Show
No Show
Camden Hills RHS Camden Hills RHS Varsity 2 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 118 MRP No Show
No Show
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Southern ME 2 1 1 2 5 3 1 2 15 Harper Rowse-Garsoe '27
Henry Rudowski '24
Mt. Desert Island HS Mt. Desert Island HS Varsity 7 8 5 7 2 3 3 35 Seth Dow '25
Rhythm Murawala '26
Camden Hills RHS Camden Hills RHS Varsity 2 5 4 8 3 10 11 4 45 Oliver Lee '26
Mabel Wight '26
Oceanside High School Oceanside High School Mariners 3 3 3 1 1 2 DSQ 47 MRP No Show
No Show
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Southern ME 1 6 6 9 12 5 6 6 50 Wyatt Bruce '24
Lilah Ferrie '26
Camden Hills RHS Camden Hills RHS Varsity 1 4 2 7 4 7 4 5 53 MRP No Show
No Show
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA ME 1 8 9 4 6 4 5 1 57 MRP No Show
No Show
Greely High School - Maine Greely High School - Maine Rangers 12 5 1 2 6 7 7 60 MRP No Show
No Show
Portland High School Portland High School Bulldogs 13 13 10 8 9 8 8 69 Harriet Mishkin '25
Clem Dean '26
Mt. Desert Island HS Mt. Desert Island HS Trojans 2 7 6 11 11 9 12 78 MRP No Show
No Show
Cheverus High School Cheverus High School Varsity 9 11 12 13 13 12 9 79 Aidan Smith '25
Lucy Pitcock '27
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA ME 2 11 12 11 10 8 10 11 93 MRP No Show
No Show
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA ME 3 10 10 13 9 12 13 10 97 MRP No Show
No Show
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.150+0.15
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2016 (6 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A
Camden Hills RHSCamden Hills RHS Varsity 11133557
Camden Hills RHSCamden Hills RHS Varsity 214141414141414
Cheverus High SchoolCheverus High School Varsity3355779
Greely High School - MaineGreely High School - Maine Rangers44668810
Mt. Desert Island HSMt. Desert Island HS Trojans6688101012
Mt. Desert Island HSMt. Desert Island HS Varsity55779911
Oceanside High SchoolOceanside High School Mariners7799111113
Portland High SchoolPortland High School Bulldogs88101012121
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA ME 199111113132
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA ME 210101212113
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA ME 311111313224
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA Southern ME 1121211335
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA Southern ME 2131322446

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B
Camden Hills RHSCamden Hills RHS Varsity 12244666
Camden Hills RHSCamden Hills RHS Varsity 214141414141414
Cheverus High SchoolCheverus High School Varsity4466888
Greely High School - MaineGreely High School - Maine Rangers5577999
Mt. Desert Island HSMt. Desert Island HS Trojans7799111111
Mt. Desert Island HSMt. Desert Island HS Varsity6688101010
Oceanside High SchoolOceanside High School Mariners881010121212
Portland High SchoolPortland High School Bulldogs991111131313
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA ME 110101212111
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA ME 211111313222
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA ME 3121211333
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA Southern ME 1131322444
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA Southern ME 21133555

Conditions — 05/11/2024 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 68%  ·  Pressure 1012.1 hPa

Temperature

50°F
↑ 53°F   ↓ 45°F
Feels like 46°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.4 kn
avg  ·  max 5.9 kn
Gusts to 14.2 kn
From SE (140°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover72% Sunshine8.1 hrs Humidity68% Pressure1012.1 hPa Rain0.04 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 7 kn · S 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Maine Maritime Academy: an underdogs’ day (−0.09)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.17 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.08
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.41 ± 0.29)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Maine Maritime Academy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 5 labelled days at Maine Maritime Academy, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →