Greevus Team Race

Pre-event forecast?

Fitted on the 11,837 team race matches sailed before 2025-04-05, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 13 of 13 matches (100%) with a log-loss of 0.311 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.79 ± 0.64: an orderly event, more orderly than 95% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
2	Tabor Academy Seawolves	1	4.84 school +0.33	Maria Castle / Charlotte Eberly 1.35 5–0 Jeremy Bullock / Campbell Carr 5–0 Grayden Mott / Nik Shumway 5–0 Claudia Bria / George Spalding 1.38 2–0 Grayden Mott / Charlotte Eberly 2–0 Jeremy Bullock / Nik Shumway 2–0	89%	7–0 (100%)	+0.8
3	Lincoln Academy Eagles	2	2.47 school −0.40	Otto Schoenthal / Pearl Hall 1.34 Griffin Chace / Cullen Cox 0.39 Lilla Hall / Noah Arbuckle	41%	4–3 (57%)	+1.1
7	Portland High School Bulldogs	3	1.89 school +0.05	Charlotte Mcdonald / Bella Trimmer 0.58 Nell Fernald / Sylvie Holmes 0.47 Adrian Jenkins / Clem Dean	33%	2–4 (33%)	+0.0
8	Yarmouth High School Clippers	4	1.76 school −0.10	Maxwell Miller / Myah Hassan Reid Garofoli / Syrin Hassan 0.89 Eliana Goldman / Margot Blum -0.03	32%	0–6 (0%)	−1.9

Surprisal: who beat their rating?

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
2	Tabor Academy Seawolves	4.84	7.84	7–0	6.2	≥+3.00	1.1	44%
3	Lincoln Academy Eagles	2.47	3.58	4–3	2.9	+1.11	0.7	30%
7	Portland High School Bulldogs	1.89	1.92	2–4	2.0	+0.03	0.0	66%
8	Yarmouth High School Clippers	1.76	-1.24	0–6	1.9	≤−3.00	3.1	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Grayden Mott	Tabor Academy	1.25	4.25	7–0	6.2	≥+3.00	1.1	44%
Otto Schoenthal	Lincoln Academy	1.34	2.44	4–3	2.9	+1.11	0.7	30%
Lilla Hall	Lincoln Academy	0.95	2.06	4–3	2.9	+1.11	0.7	30%
Nell Fernald	Portland High School	0.47	0.50	2–4	2.0	+0.03	0.0	66%
Adrian Jenkins	Portland High School	0.58	0.61	2–4	2.0	+0.03	0.0	66%
Maxwell Miller	Yarmouth High School	0.87	-2.13	0–6	1.9	≤−3.00	3.1	>99%
Reid Garofoli	Yarmouth High School	0.89	-2.11	0–6	1.9	≤−3.00	3.1	>99%
Eliana Goldman	Yarmouth High School	-0.03	-3.03	0–6	1.9	≤−3.00	3.1	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

#	Winner				Loser		Pos.
1		Mustangs	1-3-4	def.		ME	2-5-6
2		Seawolves	1-2-5	def.		Capers	3-4-6
3		Southern ME	1-2-4	def.		Bulldogs	3-5-6
4		Eagles	1-2-6	def.		Clippers	3-4-5
5		Mustangs	1-2-5	def.		Capers	3-4-6
6		Southern ME	1-2-4	def.		ME	3-5-6
7		Seawolves	1-2-4	def.		Clippers	3-5-6
8		Eagles	1-3-5	def.		Bulldogs	2-4-6
9		Southern ME	1-2-5	def.		Capers	3-4-6
10		Mustangs	1-2-6	def.		Clippers	3-4-5
11		ME	1-2-3	def.		Bulldogs	4-5-6
12		Seawolves	1-2-4	def.		Eagles	3-5-6
13		Southern ME	1-2-5	def.		Clippers	3-4-6
14		Capers	1-2-6 DNF	def.		Bulldogs	3-4-5
15		Seawolves	1-4-5	def.		Mustangs	2-3-6
16		Eagles	1-2-6	def.		ME	3-4-5
17		Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.		Clippers	3-5-6
18		Southern ME	1-2-5	def.		Seawolves	3-4-6
19		ME	1-2-5	def.		Capers	3-4-6
20		Eagles	1-2-6	def.		Mustangs	3-4-5
21		Seawolves	1-2-5	def.		Bulldogs	3-4-6
22		Clippers	1-2-6	def.		ME	3-4-5
23		Southern ME	1-2-4	def.		Mustangs	3-5-6
24		Eagles	2-4-5	def.		Capers	1-3-6 DSQ
25		Seawolves	1-2-6	def.		ME	3-4-5
26		Mustangs	1-3-4	def.		Bulldogs	2-5-6
27		Capers	1-2-5	def.		Clippers	3-4-6
28		Southern ME	1-2-3	def.		Eagles	4-5-6
29		ME	1-2-4	def.		Bulldogs	3-5-6
30		Seawolves	1-2-4	def.		Capers	3-5-6
31		Southern ME	1-3-4	def.		Mustangs	2-5-6
32		Eagles	1-2-6	def.		Clippers	3-4-5
33		Capers	1-3-5	def.		Bulldogs	2-4-6
34		Southern ME	1-2-5	def.		ME	3-4-6
35		Seawolves	1-2-3	def.		Clippers	4-5-6
36		Mustangs	1-2-3	def.		Eagles	4-5-6
37		Southern ME	1-2-6	def.		Capers	3-4-5
38		Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.		Clippers	4-5-6
39		ME	2-3-5	def.		Mustangs	1-4-6
40		Seawolves	1-2-6	def.		Eagles	3-4-5
41		Southern ME	1-2-5	def.		Clippers	3-4-6
42		Mustangs	1-2-5	def.		Capers	3-4-6
43		Seawolves	1-2-3	def.		Bulldogs	4-5-6
44		ME	1-2-4	def.		Eagles	3-5-6
45		Mustangs	1-2-3	def.		Clippers	4-5-6
46		Southern ME	1-2-5	def.		Seawolves	3-4-6
47		ME	2-3-5	def.		Capers	1-4-6
48		Eagles	1-2-6	def.		Bulldogs	3-4-5
49		Mustangs	2-3-4	def.		Seawolves	1-5-6
50		ME	2-3-4	def.		Clippers	1-5-6
51		Southern ME	1-2-3	def.		Bulldogs	4-5-6
52		Eagles	1-3-5	def.		Capers	2-4-6
53		Seawolves	1-2-5	def.		ME	3-4-6
54		Bulldogs	2-3-5	def.		Mustangs	1-4-6
55		Clippers		def.		Capers
56		Eagles	1-2-6	def.		Southern ME	3-4-5
57		Seawolves		def.		Eagles
58		Mustangs	1-2-4	def.		Eagles	3-5-6
59		Seawolves	1-3-5	def.		Mustangs	2-4-6

	School	Team	Skippers	Crew
	Tabor Academy	Seawolves	Claudia Bria '28 Grayden Mott '25 Jeremy Bullock '25 Maria Castle '25	George Spalding '28 Nik Shumway '27 Charlotte Eberly '27 Campbell Carr '25
	Lincoln Academy	Eagles	Griffin Chace '26 Lilla Hall '25 Otto Schoenthal '25	Cullen Cox '27 Noah Arbuckle '25 Pearl Hall '29
	Portland High School	Bulldogs	Adrian Jenkins '28 Charlotte Mcdonald '25 Nell Fernald '27 No Show	Clem Dean '26 Bella Trimmer '26 Sylvie Holmes '27
	Yarmouth High School	Clippers	Eliana Goldman '26 Maxwell Miller '28 Reid Garofoli '27	Margot Blum '27 Myah Hassan '25 Syrin Hassan '27