| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Unregistered-NESSA | Southern ME | 10–1 |
| 2 |  |
Portland High School | Bulldogs | 7–4 |
| 3 |  |
Lincoln Academy | Eagles | 5–6 |
| 4 |  |
Cape Elizabeth High School | Capers | 4–7 |
| 5 | |
Unregistered-NESSA | ME | 4–7 |
| 6 |  |
Falmouth High School (ME) | Navigators | 3–8 |
| 7 |  |
Yarmouth High School | Clippers | 1–5 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 12,471 team race matches sailed before 2025-05-03, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 12 of 18 matches (67%) with a log-loss of 0.645 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −0.54 ± 0.64: a typical event, more orderly than 16% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Unregistered-NESSA Southern ME | 1 | 3.69 school +1.01 | Spencer Fieldroy / Jonah Reischmann Finn Coldreck / Taylor Giles Harper Rowse-Garsoe / Henry Rudowski | 74% | 7–2 (78%) | +0.3 |
| 2 | Portland High School Bulldogs | 4 | 1.59 school +0.06 | Charlotte Mcdonald / Tray Miller 0.77 Nell Fernald / Sylvie Holmes 0.61 Harriet Mishkin / Oliver Lacasse Moore -0.25 2–4 Adrian Jenkins / Oliver Lacasse Moore 0.53 2–1 | 27% | 4–5 (44%) | +1.6 |
| 5 | Unregistered-NESSA ME | 2 | 2.71 school +1.01 | Aggie Lamontagne / Lannie Lamontagne Hunter Weiss / Phoebe Kibler Tristan Wessel / Evelyn Lacasse 3–3 Josh Herlihy / Anca Jacobs 0–3 | 50% | 3–6 (33%) | −1.5 |
| 6 | Falmouth High School (ME) Navigators | 3 | 2.69 home +0.15 | Noelle Caola / Anna King 1.25 Molly Gerding / Claire Kusel 0.28 Myles Feuer / Beck Langston 0.74 2–4 Wilson Langston / Savannah Talbert 1.09 2–1 | 49% | 4–5 (44%) | −0.4 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Portland High School Bulldogs | 1.59 | 2.66 | 4–5 | 2.4 | +1.06 | 1.0 | 20% |
| 1 | Unregistered-NESSA Southern ME | 3.69 | 3.95 | 7–2 | 6.7 | +0.26 | 0.0 | 58% |
| 6 | Falmouth High School (ME) Navigators | 2.69 | 2.45 | 4–5 | 4.4 | −0.24 | 0.1 | 73% |
| 5 | Unregistered-NESSA ME | 2.71 | 1.69 | 3–6 | 4.5 | −1.02 | 0.8 | 93% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Jenkins | Portland High School | 0.53 | 1.93 | 2–1 | 1.2 | +1.41 | 0.6 | 35% |
| Nell Fernald | Portland High School | 0.61 | 1.68 | 4–5 | 2.4 | +1.06 | 1.0 | 20% |
| Harriet Mishkin | Portland High School | -0.25 | 0.63 | 2–4 | 1.2 | +0.88 | 0.4 | 35% |
| Wilson Langston | Falmouth High School (ME) | 1.09 | 1.64 | 2–1 | 1.7 | +0.55 | 0.1 | 60% |
| Spencer Fieldroy | Unregistered-NESSA | 0.40 | 0.65 | 7–2 | 6.7 | +0.26 | 0.0 | 58% |
| Finn Coldreck | Unregistered-NESSA | 0.42 | 0.68 | 7–2 | 6.7 | +0.26 | 0.0 | 58% |
| Noelle Caola | Falmouth High School (ME) | 1.25 | 1.01 | 4–5 | 4.4 | −0.24 | 0.1 | 73% |
| Molly Gerding | Falmouth High School (ME) | 0.28 | 0.04 | 4–5 | 4.4 | −0.24 | 0.1 | 73% |
| Tristan Wessel | Unregistered-NESSA | 0.42 | -0.07 | 3–3 | 3.5 | −0.49 | 0.1 | 81% |
| Myles Feuer | Falmouth High School (ME) | 0.74 | 0.06 | 2–4 | 2.7 | −0.68 | 0.3 | 85% |
| Aggie Lamontagne | Unregistered-NESSA | 0.42 | -0.59 | 3–6 | 4.5 | −1.02 | 0.8 | 93% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | |
Capers | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Navigators | 2-4-5 |
| 32 | |
Eagles | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Capers | 3-4-5 |
| 33 | |
Bulldogs | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Capers | 2-3-6 |
| 34 | |
Capers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
ME | 3-4-6 |
| 35 | |
Southern ME | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Capers | 3-4-5 |
| 36 | |
Clippers | 1-5-6 | def. | |
Capers | 2-3-4 DSQ |
| 37 | |
Eagles | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Navigators | 2-3-6 |
| 38 | |
Bulldogs | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Navigators | 2-5-6 |
| 39 | |
Navigators | 1-2-3 | def. | |
ME | 4-5-6 |
| 40 | |
Southern ME | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Navigators | 3-4-5 |
| 41 | |
Navigators | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Clippers | 1-5-6 |
| 42 | |
Bulldogs | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Eagles | 2-5-6 |
| 43 | |
Eagles | 2-3-5 | def. | |
ME | 1-4-6 |
| 44 | |
Southern ME | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Eagles | 3-5-6 |
| 45 | |
Clippers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Eagles | 3-4-5 |
| 46 | |
ME | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-6 |
| 47 | |
Southern ME | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-5-6 |
| 48 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Clippers | 3-4-5 |
| 49 | |
Southern ME | 1-2-4 | def. | |
ME | 3-5-6 |
| 50 | |
ME | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Clippers | 3-4-6 |
| 51 | |
Clippers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Southern ME | 3-4-5 |
| 1 | |
Eagles | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 2-3-6 DSQ |
| 2 | |
Navigators | 1-2-4 | def. | |
ME | 3-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Southern ME | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Capers | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Eagles | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Navigators | 2-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Southern ME | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-5-6 |
| 6 | |
ME | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Capers | 3-4-5 |
| 7 | |
Southern ME | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Navigators | 3-5-6 |
| 8 | |
ME | 1-2-4 DSQ | def. | |
Eagles | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Bulldogs | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Capers | 1-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Southern ME | 1-2-4 | def. | |
ME | 3-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Bulldogs | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Navigators | 2-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Capers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Eagles | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
ME | 3-4-5 |
| 14 | |
Southern ME | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Eagles | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Capers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Navigators | 3-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Bulldogs | def. | |
Eagles | ||
| 17 | |
ME | def. | |
Navigators | ||
| 18 | |
Southern ME | def. | |
Capers | ||
| 19 | |
Eagles | def. | |
Navigators | ||
| 20 | |
Bulldogs | def. | |
Southern ME | ||
| 21 | |
Capers | def. | |
ME | ||
| 22 | |
Navigators | def. | |
Southern ME | ||
| 23 | |
Eagles | def. | |
ME | ||
| 24 | |
Bulldogs | def. | |
Capers | ||
| 25 | |
Southern ME | def. | |
ME | ||
| 26 | |
Navigators | def. | |
Bulldogs | ||
| 27 | |
Capers | def. | |
Eagles | ||
| 28 | |
ME | def. | |
Bulldogs | ||
| 29 | |
Southern ME | def. | |
Eagles | ||
| 30 | |
Navigators | def. | |
Capers | ||
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Unregistered-NESSA | Southern ME | Finn Coldreck '25 Harper Rowse-Garsoe '27 Spencer Fieldroy '24 |
Taylor Giles '26 Henry Rudowski '24 Jonah Reischmann '23 |
|
Portland High School | Bulldogs | Adrian Jenkins '28 Charlotte Mcdonald '25 Harriet Mishkin '25 Nell Fernald '27 |
Oliver Lacasse Moore '28 Tray Miller '26 Adrian Jenkins '28 Sylvie Holmes '27 |
|
Unregistered-NESSA | ME | Aggie Lamontagne '25 Hunter Weiss '26 Josh Herlihy '25 Tristan Wessel '29 |
Lannie Lamontagne '25 Phoebe Kibler '26 Anca Jacobs '28 Evelyn Lacasse '27 |
|
Falmouth High School (ME) | Navigators | Ian Doherty '25 Molly Gerding '26 Myles Feuer '25 Noelle Caola '28 Wilson Langston '25 |
Benjamin Gelchinsky '25 Claire Kusel '28 Beck Langston '27 Anna King '28 Savannah Talbert '25 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.37 means a rating gap counts about 33% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
