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Bulldog Classic

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Lincoln Academy Lincoln Academy Eagles 10–3
2 Tabor Academy Tabor Academy Seawolves 10–3
3 Cape Elizabeth High School Cape Elizabeth High School Capers 8–5
4 Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Southern ME 5–6
5 Marthas Vineyard RHS Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders 3–9
6 Portland High School Portland High School Bulldogs 0–10

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 10,622 team race matches sailed before 2024-04-13, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 10 of 18 matches (56%) with a log-loss of 0.690 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −0.95 ± 0.56: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 8% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Lincoln Academy
Eagles		23.15
school −0.38		Toby Clarkson / Piper Carleton 1.97
Otto Schoenthal / Lilla Hall 1.33
Griffin Chace / Noah Arbuckle 0.12		67%7–2 (78%)+0.9
3Cape Elizabeth High School
Capers		32.08
school −0.22		Story Straw / Keaton Mosunic 0.97
Tess Straw / Ruby Mcgonigal 0.99 4–2
Luca Kleeman / Shiloh Doody 0.26 4–2
Tess Straw / Shiloh Doody 0.85 2–1
Luca Kleeman / Ruby Mcgonigal 0.36 2–1		44%6–3 (67%)+2.1
5Marthas Vineyard RHS
Vineyarders		13.26Peter Miller / William Simmons 0.68
Simon Hammarlund / Pickle Eville 1.67
Lyla Solway / Nicholas Merriam 0.83 3–3
Esme Colon / Freya Stearns 0.75 0–3		70%3–6 (33%)−3.3
6Portland High School
Bulldogs		40.88Charlotte Mcdonald / Tray Miller 0.52
Harriet Mishkin / Isla Norton
Nell Fernald / Sylvie Holmes 0.44		19%2–7 (22%)+0.3

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
3Cape Elizabeth High School2.083.476–33.9+1.401.613%
1Lincoln Academy3.153.907–26.1+0.750.438%
6Portland High School0.881.162–71.7+0.290.153%
5Marthas Vineyard RHS3.261.043–66.3−2.224.2>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Tess StrawCape Elizabeth High School0.992.396–33.9+1.401.613%
Story StrawCape Elizabeth High School0.972.376–33.9+1.401.613%
Luca KleemanCape Elizabeth High School0.261.666–33.9+1.401.613%
Otto SchoenthalLincoln Academy1.332.087–26.1+0.750.438%
Harriet MishkinPortland High School-0.30-0.022–71.7+0.290.153%
Nell FernaldPortland High School0.440.732–71.7+0.290.153%
Esme ColonMarthas Vineyard RHS0.75-2.250–32.1≤−3.004.4>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Marthas Vineyard RHSLincoln Academy52%
16Cape Elizabeth High SchoolPortland High School73%
18Lincoln AcademyPortland High School86%
19Cape Elizabeth High SchoolMarthas Vineyard RHS30%upset
112Cape Elizabeth High SchoolLincoln Academy30%upset
113Marthas Vineyard RHSPortland High School87%
216Marthas Vineyard RHSPortland High School87%
219Lincoln AcademyMarthas Vineyard RHS47%upset
220Cape Elizabeth High SchoolPortland High School71%
222Lincoln AcademyCape Elizabeth High School70%
226Lincoln AcademyPortland High School85%
229Cape Elizabeth High SchoolMarthas Vineyard RHS29%upset
331Portland High SchoolMarthas Vineyard RHS13%upset
334Lincoln AcademyMarthas Vineyard RHS47%upset
335Portland High SchoolCape Elizabeth High School29%upset
337Lincoln AcademyCape Elizabeth High School70%
341Lincoln AcademyPortland High School85%
344Cape Elizabeth High SchoolMarthas Vineyard RHS29%upset
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders 2-3-4 def. Lincoln Academy Eagles 1-5-6
2 Unregistered-NESSA Southern ME 1-2-3 def. Portland High School Bulldogs 4-5-6
3 Cape Elizabeth High School Capers 1-2-6 def. Tabor Academy Seawolves 3-4-5
4 Lincoln Academy Eagles 1-3-6 def. Unregistered-NESSA Southern ME 2-4-5
5 Tabor Academy Seawolves 1-2-5 def. Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders 3-4-6
6 Cape Elizabeth High School Capers 1-2-4 def. Portland High School Bulldogs 3-5-6
7 Tabor Academy Seawolves 2-3-4 def. Unregistered-NESSA Southern ME 1-5-6
8 Lincoln Academy Eagles 1-2-4 def. Portland High School Bulldogs 3-5-6
9 Cape Elizabeth High School Capers 1-3-5 def. Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders 2-4-6
10 Tabor Academy Seawolves 1-2-3 def. Portland High School Bulldogs 4-5-6
11 Unregistered-NESSA Southern ME 2-3-4 def. Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders 1-5-6
12 Cape Elizabeth High School Capers 1-2-6 def. Lincoln Academy Eagles 3-4-5
13 Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders 1-2-3 def. Portland High School Bulldogs 4-5-6
14 Lincoln Academy Eagles 1-2-6 def. Tabor Academy Seawolves 3-4-5 DSQ
15 Cape Elizabeth High School Capers 1-2-4 def. Unregistered-NESSA Southern ME 3-5-6
16 Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders 1-2-5 def. Portland High School Bulldogs 3-4-6
17 Tabor Academy Seawolves 2-3-5 def. Lincoln Academy Eagles 1-4-6
18 Cape Elizabeth High School Capers 2-3-4 def. Unregistered-NESSA Southern ME 1-5-6
19 Lincoln Academy Eagles 1-2-5 def. Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders 3-4-6
20 Cape Elizabeth High School Capers 1-2-4 def. Portland High School Bulldogs 3-5-6
21 Tabor Academy Seawolves 1-2-5 def. Unregistered-NESSA Southern ME 3-4-6
22 Lincoln Academy Eagles 1-2-5 def. Cape Elizabeth High School Capers 3-4-6
23 Tabor Academy Seawolves 2-3-6 def. Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders 1-4-5 DSQ
24 Unregistered-NESSA Southern ME 1-2-4 def. Portland High School Bulldogs 3-5-6
25 Tabor Academy Seawolves 3-4-5 def. Cape Elizabeth High School Capers 1-2-6 DSQ
26 Lincoln Academy Eagles 1-2-3 def. Portland High School Bulldogs 4-5-6
27 Unregistered-NESSA Southern ME 1-2-3 def. Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders 4-5-6
28 Tabor Academy Seawolves 1-2-4 def. Portland High School Bulldogs 3-5-6
29 Cape Elizabeth High School Capers 1-3-6 def. Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders 2-4-5
30 Lincoln Academy Eagles 2-3-4 def. Unregistered-NESSA Southern ME 1-5-6
31 Portland High School Bulldogs def. Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders
32 Lincoln Academy Eagles 2-3-5 def. Tabor Academy Seawolves 1-4-6
33 Unregistered-NESSA Southern ME 1-2-4 def. Cape Elizabeth High School Capers 3-5-6
34 Lincoln Academy Eagles 2-3-6 def. Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders 1-4-5 DSQ
35 Portland High School Bulldogs def. Cape Elizabeth High School Capers
36 Unregistered-NESSA Southern ME def. Tabor Academy Seawolves
37 Lincoln Academy Eagles 2-3-4 def. Cape Elizabeth High School Capers 1-5-6
38 Tabor Academy Seawolves 1-2-5 def. Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders 3-4-6
39 Portland High School Bulldogs def. Unregistered-NESSA Southern ME
40 Tabor Academy Seawolves 1-2-4 def. Cape Elizabeth High School Capers 3-5-6
41 Lincoln Academy Eagles def. Portland High School Bulldogs
42 Unregistered-NESSA Southern ME def. Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders
43 Tabor Academy Seawolves def. Portland High School Bulldogs
44 Cape Elizabeth High School Capers def. Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders
45 Lincoln Academy Eagles def. Unregistered-NESSA Southern ME

Conditions — 04/13/2024 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 67%  ·  Pressure 1010.2 hPa

Temperature

62°F
↑ 71°F   ↓ 47°F
Feels like 60°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.1 kn
avg  ·  max 7.3 kn
Gusts to 14.0 kn
From NNW (332°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover93% Sunshine10.2 hrs Humidity67% Pressure1010.2 hPa

What this breeze does at Portland — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Portland in this breeze: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.17)
Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.17 means a rating gap counts about 15% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Portland by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 5 labelled days at Portland, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →