Marthas Vineyard RHS '26
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.48 (fleet 0.88) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.06 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 4–11 (27%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 | 1 | 1–8 | — |
| Spring 2024 | 2 | 3–3 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (15 matches) the record is 4–11 against 8.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−4.0). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 9 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-03 | NESSA Team Racing Tournament (Terk Trophy) | skipper | 0.82 | -1.64 | 1–8 | 3.7 | −2.46 | 3.2 | 99% |
| 2024-04-13 | Bulldog Classic | skipper | 0.75 | -2.25 | 0–3 | 2.1 | ≤−3.00 | 4.4 | >99% |
| 2024-04-06 | Dorchester Bay Super Saturday | skipper | 0.68 | 3.68 | 3–0 | 2.2 | ≥+3.00 | 1.2 | 39% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
To have this profile removed, email quinnbrighton2005@gmail.com.
