Milton Academy '27
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.17 (fleet 0.29) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 8–15 (35%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 2 | 8–15 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (23 matches) the record is 8–15 against 7.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.4). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 2026 NESSA Team Racing Champs (Presidents Trophy) | skipper | 0.27 | -0.65 | 1–13 | 1.8 | −0.92 | 0.4 | 87% |
| 2026-04-04 | Clipper Challenge Spring 2026 | skipper | 0.19 | 1.04 | 7–2 | 5.8 | +0.85 | 0.5 | 32% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| Clipper Challenge Spring 2026 | Skipper | TR | 15 | 67% | — |
| 2026 NESSA Team Racing Champs (Presidents Trophy) | Skipper | TR | 14 | 7% | — |
| 2026 NESSA Fleet Racing Championship(O'Day Trophy) | Crew | B | 2 | 13.5 | -0.25 |
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| NESSA Fleet Racing Championship (O'Day Trophy) | Crew | B | 2 | 7.0 | — |
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| JV Fleet Race Invitational | Skipper | A | 8 | 6.9 | -0.57 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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