Clipper Challenge

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Southern ME 1 18 5 23
2 Falmouth High School (ME) Falmouth High School (ME) Navigators 1 12 14 26
3 Cheverus High School Cheverus High School Varsity 13 20 33
4 Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Southern ME 2 24 13 37
5 Yarmouth High School Yarmouth High School Clippers 33 20 53
6 Cape Elizabeth High School Cape Elizabeth High School Capers 1 21 41 62
7 Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA ME 2 18 46 64
8 Portland High School Portland High School Bulldogs 1 31 34 65
9 Cape Elizabeth High School Cape Elizabeth High School Capers 2 38 32 70
10 Falmouth High School (ME) Falmouth High School (ME) Navigators 2 36 34 70
11 Rangers Rangers Rangers 43 29 72
12 Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA ME 1 47 37 84
13 Portland High School Portland High School Bulldogs 2 45 42 87
14 Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Northern VT 42 54 96
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Falmouth High School (ME) Falmouth High School (ME) Navigators 1 5 4 2 1 12 Wilson Langston '25
Beck Langston '27
Cheverus High School Cheverus High School Varsity 4 3 4 2 13 Josh Herlihy '25
Edwin Maurais '27
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA ME 2 1 5 9 3 18
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Southern ME 1 2 2 8 6 18 Noah Reischmann '24
Mira Broussard '24
Cape Elizabeth High School Cape Elizabeth High School Capers 1 13 1 3 4 21 Sophia Lee '28
Elliot Northup '26
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Southern ME 2 10 8 1 5 24 Aiden Springer '24
Bowman Hyland '27
Portland High School Portland High School Bulldogs 1 3 10 10 8 31 Charlotte Mcdonald '25
Clem Dean '26
Yarmouth High School Yarmouth High School Clippers 8 11 5 9 33 Olivier Garcia De Reynal '25 [1-2]
Julius Sawhney '25 [3-4]
Myah Hassan '25 [1-2]
Eliana Goldman '26 [3-4]
Falmouth High School (ME) Falmouth High School (ME) Navigators 2 11 7 6 12 36 Myles Feuer '25
Claire Kusel '28
Cape Elizabeth High School Cape Elizabeth High School Capers 2 7 9 DSQ 7 38 Story Straw '25
Shiloh Doody '27
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Northern VT 9 13 7 13 42 Henry Bushey '25
Magnus Nilsson '25
Rangers Rangers Rangers 6 14 13 10 43
Portland High School Portland High School Bulldogs 2 14 6 11 14 45 Harriet Mishkin '25
Oliver Lacasse Moore '28
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA ME 1 12 12 12 11 47
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Southern ME 1 2 1 1 1 5 Harper Rowse-Garsoe '27
Lilah Ferrie '26
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Southern ME 2 3 5 2 3 13 Jonah Reischmann '23
Taylor Giles '26
Falmouth High School (ME) Falmouth High School (ME) Navigators 1 4 2 4 4 14 Noelle Caola '28
Savannah Talbert '25
Cheverus High School Cheverus High School Varsity 1 3 10 6 20 Aggie Lamontagne '25
Lannie Lamontagne '25
Yarmouth High School Yarmouth High School Clippers 6 9 3 2 20 Reid Garofoli '27
Syrin Hassan '27
Rangers Rangers Rangers 7 6 6 10 29
Cape Elizabeth High School Cape Elizabeth High School Capers 2 5 7 DNS 5 32 Erik Frey '28
Falmouth High School (ME) Falmouth High School (ME) Navigators 2 8 4 9 13 34 Molly Gerding '26
Benjamin Gelchinsky '25
Portland High School Portland High School Bulldogs 1 10 10 7 7 34 Kristen Mailloux '26 [1-4]
Bella Trimmer '26 [1-2]
Rendle Fertig '26 [3-4]
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA ME 1 12 8 5 12 37
Cape Elizabeth High School Cape Elizabeth High School Capers 1 9 13 11 8 41 Luca Kleeman '27
Keaton Mosunic '28
Portland High School Portland High School Bulldogs 2 13 12 8 9 42 Duncan Amoroso '26
Tray Miller '26
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA ME 2 11 11 13 11 46
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Northern VT 14 14 12 14 54 Allen Timmons '26
Alexis Gerlack '26
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.100+0.10
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2019 (9 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Cape Elizabeth High SchoolCape Elizabeth High School Capers 11133
Cape Elizabeth High SchoolCape Elizabeth High School Capers 22255
Cheverus High SchoolCheverus High School Varsity3366
Falmouth High School (ME)Falmouth High School (ME) Navigators 15577
Falmouth High School (ME)Falmouth High School (ME) Navigators 26688
RangersRangers Rangers7799
Portland High SchoolPortland High School Bulldogs 1881010
Portland High SchoolPortland High School Bulldogs 2991111
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA ME 113131515
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA ME 2141411
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA Northern VT12121414
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA Southern ME 110101212
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA Southern ME 211111313
Yarmouth High SchoolYarmouth High School Clippers151522

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
Cape Elizabeth High SchoolCape Elizabeth High School Capers 12255
Cape Elizabeth High SchoolCape Elizabeth High School Capers 23366
Cheverus High SchoolCheverus High School Varsity5577
Falmouth High School (ME)Falmouth High School (ME) Navigators 16688
Falmouth High School (ME)Falmouth High School (ME) Navigators 27799
RangersRangers Rangers881010
Portland High SchoolPortland High School Bulldogs 1991111
Portland High SchoolPortland High School Bulldogs 210101212
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA ME 1141411
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA ME 2151522
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA Northern VT13131515
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA Southern ME 111111313
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA Southern ME 212121414
Yarmouth High SchoolYarmouth High School Clippers1133

Conditions — 09/28/2024 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 77%  ·  Pressure 1017.7 hPa

Temperature

64°F
↑ 69°F   ↓ 56°F
Feels like 64°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.0 kn
avg  ·  max 4.8 kn
Gusts to 11.9 kn
From E (101°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover66% Sunshine9.9 hrs Humidity77% Pressure1017.7 hPa Rain0.01 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Yarmouth: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.09 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.06
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.40 ± 0.22)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Yarmouth by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at Yarmouth, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →