The Hotchkiss School '25
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.23 (fleet 3.63) | 27 of 231 | −0.02 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 48–24 (67%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 | 1 | 9–6 | — |
| Spring 2024 | 2 | 26–11 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 1 | 13–7 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (72 matches) the record is 48–24 against 48.2 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.2). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-03 | NESSA Team Racing Championship (Presidents Trophy) | skipper | 2.86 | 1.52 | 9–6 | 11.7 | −1.34 | 2.2 | 98% |
| 2024-05-17 | 2024 ISSA Baker Team Race National Championship | skipper | 2.58 | 2.88 | 10–7 | 9.2 | +0.31 | 0.1 | 43% |
| 2024-05-04 | NESSA Team Racing Championship (Presidents Trophy) | skipper | 2.32 | 3.10 | 16–4 | 14.2 | +0.77 | 0.8 | 24% |
| 2023-05-06 | NESSA Team Racing Championship (Presidents Trophy) | skipper | 2.18 | 2.13 | 13–7 | 13.1 | −0.04 | 0.0 | 63% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| NESSA Team Racing Championship (Presidents Trophy) | Skipper | TR | 17 | 59% | — |
| NESSA O'Day Qualifier - Groton, CT | Skipper | A | 7 | 2.7 | 4.05 |
| NESSA Fleet Racing Championship (O'Day Trophy) | Skipper | B | 4 | 5.0 | 3.08 |
| ISSA Fleet Nationals (Mallory Trophy) | Skipper | B | 8 | 4.2 | 3.88 |
| CT States | Skipper | B | 7 | 2.6 | 2.75 |
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| NESSA Team Racing Championship (Presidents Trophy) | Skipper | TR | 20 | 80% | — |
| NESSA O'Day Qualifier - Groton, CT | Skipper | A | 2 | 1.0 | — |
| 2024 NESSA Fleet Racing Championship (O'Day) | Skipper | B | 4 | 3.2 | 3.07 |
| 2024 ISSA Mallory National Championship | Skipper | A | 6 | 15.2 | -0.23 |
| 2024 ISSA Baker Team Race National Championship | Skipper | TR | 17 | 59% | — |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| O'Day Qualifier - Lakevile, CT | Skipper | A | 2 | 3.0 | 2.52 |
| NESSA Team Racing Championship (Presidents Trophy) | Skipper | TR | 20 | 65% | — |
| ISSA Mallory National Championship | Skipper | A | 11 | 12.4 | 0.12 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| 2022 ISSA Mallory Dinghy Nationals | Skipper | A | 2 | 17.5 | -1.46 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Fynn Olsen |  College of Charleston |
'29 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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