The Hotchkiss School '25
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.59 (fleet 4.21) | 7 of 231 | −0.01 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 48–27 (64%) as crew 1–0 (100%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 | 1 | 8–7 | — |
| Spring 2024 | 2 | 22–11 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 2 | 18–9 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 1 | — | 1–0 |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (75 matches) the record is 48–27 against 46.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.3). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 8 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-03 | NESSA Team Racing Championship (Presidents Trophy) | skipper | 2.74 | 1.24 | 8–7 | 11.5 | −1.49 | 3.1 | 99% |
| 2024-05-17 | 2024 ISSA Baker Team Race National Championship | skipper | 2.75 | 3.05 | 10–7 | 9.2 | +0.31 | 0.1 | 43% |
| 2024-05-04 | NESSA Team Racing Championship (Presidents Trophy) | skipper | 2.85 | 3.43 | 12–4 | 10.8 | +0.58 | 0.4 | 34% |
| 2023-05-20 | 2023 Baker National Championship | skipper | 2.80 | 5.71 | 5–2 | 2.1 | +2.91 | 4.7 | 1% |
| 2023-05-06 | NESSA Team Racing Championship (Presidents Trophy) | skipper | 2.70 | 2.65 | 13–7 | 13.1 | −0.04 | 0.0 | 63% |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Pierce Olsen |  College of Charleston |
'29 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
To have this profile removed, email quinnbrighton2005@gmail.com.
