| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Severn School | Admirals | 11–0 |
| 2 |  |
Mater Dei High School | MONARCHS | 8–3 |
| 3 |  |
The Hotchkiss School | Bearcats | 6–5 |
| 4 |  |
Brunswick School | Bruins | 5–6 |
| 5 |  |
Ransom Everglades School | Raiders | 3–2 |
| 6 |  |
San Marcos High School | Knights | 2–3 |
| 7 |  |
Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL | Wolfpack | 2–3 |
| 7 |  |
Roosevelt High School | Rough Riders | 2–3 |
| 9 |  |
Lake Forest High School | Scouts | 1–4 |
| 10 |  |
Clear Falls High School | Knights | 1–4 |
| 10 |  |
Antilles School | Hurricanes | 1–4 |
| 12 |  |
Archbishop Spalding | Cavaliers | 0–5 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 10,072 team race matches sailed before 2023-05-20, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 21 of 34 matches (62%) with a log-loss of 0.651 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −0.98 ± 0.38: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 7% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Severn School | 10.61 | 13.61 | 7–0 | 6.0 | ≥+3.00 | 1.5 | 31% |
| 3 | The Hotchkiss School | 7.46 | 10.37 | 5–2 | 2.1 | +2.91 | 4.7 | 1% |
| 7 | Roosevelt High School | 6.16 | 8.44 | 2–3 | 0.5 | +2.28 | 2.1 | 9% |
| 4 | Brunswick School | 8.28 | 9.76 | 4–3 | 2.5 | +1.48 | 1.3 | 17% |
| 7 | Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL | 6.35 | 7.74 | 2–3 | 1.0 | +1.38 | 0.8 | 26% |
| 5 | Ransom Everglades School | 8.43 | 8.56 | 3–2 | 2.9 | +0.13 | 0.0 | 67% |
| 2 | Mater Dei High School | 10.41 | 10.01 | 6–1 | 6.2 | −0.40 | 0.1 | 83% |
| 10 | Clear Falls High School | 7.42 | 6.04 | 1–4 | 1.9 | −1.39 | 0.7 | 94% |
| 6 | San Marcos High School | 9.26 | 7.78 | 2–3 | 3.1 | −1.48 | 1.0 | 95% |
| 9 | Lake Forest High School | 8.32 | 6.39 | 1–4 | 2.2 | −1.94 | 1.3 | 97% |
| 10 | Antilles School | 8.74 | 6.30 | 1–4 | 2.6 | −2.44 | 2.1 | 99% |
| 12 | Archbishop Spalding | 8.35 | 5.35 | 0–5 | 2.8 | ≤−3.00 | 5.8 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avery Baldwin | Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL | 2.28 | 3.66 | 2–3 | 1.0 | +1.38 | 0.8 | 26% |
| Ava Anderson | Clear Falls High School | 2.47 | 1.08 | 1–4 | 1.9 | −1.39 | 0.7 | 94% |
| Ewan Dossin | Clear Falls High School | 1.71 | 0.33 | 1–4 | 1.9 | −1.39 | 0.7 | 94% |
| Charlie Gish | Lake Forest High School | 2.86 | 0.93 | 1–4 | 2.2 | −1.94 | 1.3 | 97% |
| Andy Yu | Antilles School | 2.60 | 0.16 | 1–4 | 2.6 | −2.44 | 2.1 | 99% |
| Winn Majette | Antilles School | 2.28 | -0.16 | 1–4 | 2.6 | −2.44 | 2.1 | 99% |
| Parker Herman | Archbishop Spalding | 2.45 | -0.55 | 0–5 | 2.8 | ≤−3.00 | 5.8 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
MONARCHS | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Raiders | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Knights | 3-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Bruins | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Scouts | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Bearcats | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 3-4-5 |
| 5 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Rough Riders | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Knights | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 1-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Bruins | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Bearcats | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Knights | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Scouts | 3-4-5 |
| 10 | |
MONARCHS | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Rough Riders | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 2-4-5 |
| 12 | |
Raiders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Knights | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Admirals | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bruins | 3-4-5 |
| 14 | |
Bearcats | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 3-4-5 |
| 15 | |
Knights | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rough Riders | 3-5-6 |
| 16 | |
MONARCHS | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Knights | 3-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Scouts | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 3-4-5 |
| 18 | |
Raiders | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 1-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Admirals | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Knights | 3-4-5 |
| 20 | |
MONARCHS | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 4-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Bruins | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rough Riders | 3-4-6 |
| 22 | |
Bearcats | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Knights | 3-4-5 |
| 23 | |
Admirals | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Scouts | 3-4-6 |
| 24 | |
Wolfpack | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 3-4-6 |
| 25 | |
Bruins | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Knights | 3-4-5 |
| 26 | |
Bearcats | 2-3-4 | def. | |
MONARCHS | 1-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Admirals | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 3-4-6 |
| 28 | |
Raiders | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 2-4-5 |
| 29 | |
Rough Riders | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Scouts | 1-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Wolfpack | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Knights | 3-4-6 OCS |
| 31 | |
Admirals | 1-2-6 | def. | |
MONARCHS | 3-4-5 |
| 32 | |
Bruins | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Bearcats | 2-4-5 |
| 33 | |
Admirals | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bruins | 3-4-6 |
| 34 | |
MONARCHS | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bearcats | 4-5-6 |
| 35 | |
MONARCHS | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bruins | 4-5-6 |
| 36 | |
Admirals | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bearcats | 3-4-6 |
| 37 | |
Admirals | 2-3-5 | def. | |
MONARCHS | 1-4-6 |
| 38 | |
Bearcats | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bruins | 3-4-5 |
| 39 | |
Admirals | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bruins | 3-4-6 |
| 40 | |
MONARCHS | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bearcats | 3-4-5 |
| 41 | |
MONARCHS | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bruins | 3-4-6 |
| 42 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bearcats | 4-5-6 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
