Antilles School '23
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.16 (fleet 3.51) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 16–10 (62%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 2 | 16–10 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (26 matches) the record is 16–10 against 15.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.4). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-05-20 | 2023 Baker National Championship | skipper | 2.60 | 0.16 | 1–4 | 2.6 | −2.44 | 2.1 | 99% |
| 2023-04-15 | SAISA Baker Race Qualifier | skipper | 2.35 | 2.93 | 15–6 | 13.0 | +0.58 | 0.6 | 24% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA SP#5 Varsity | Skipper | B | 2 | 3.5 | 3.05 |
| SAISA NP #7 (Varsity) | Skipper | A | 8 | 3.9 | 2.66 |
| SAISA Mallory Qualifier | Skipper | B | 10 | 6.5 | 2.14 |
| SAISA Baker Race Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 18 | 72% | — |
| 2023 Baker National Championship | Skipper | TR | 5 | 20% | — |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Lawrence A. White Invitational | Skipper | B | 9 | 5.1 | 2.17 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA South Points SP#5 Varsity | Skipper | B | 3 | 3.7 | 0.87 |
| SAISA Fleet Racing Championships | Skipper | B | 9 | 5.1 | 1.20 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Andy Yu |  Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
'27 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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