Navigate

SAISA Baker Race Qualifier

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Antilles School Antilles School Hurricanes 13–5
2 Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Raiders 12–7
3 St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 11–8
4 Immaculata La Salle High School Immaculata La Salle High School Royal Lions 1–17

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 9,404 team race matches sailed before 2023-04-15, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 32 of 42 matches (76%) with a log-loss of 0.565 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.93 ± 0.56: an orderly event, more orderly than 98% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Antilles School
Hurricanes		18.22
school +0.47		Winn Majette / Caitlin Briggs 2.12
Andy Yu / Katherine Majette
Tanner Krygsveld / Alexis Young 3.04		62%15–6 (71%)+2.0
2Ransom Everglades School
Raiders		28.17
home +0.13		Jackson Mcaliley / Manolo Campos 2.78
Ian Fox / Evelyn Yu 2.26
Griggs Diemar / Violet Martin 2.73		61%14–7 (67%)+1.3
3St. Thomas Aquinas High School
Raiders		37.53
school +0.52		Cody Roe / Ava Meshel 2.60
Laura Hamilton / Kevin Gosselin 2.15
Mary (Lucy) Meagher / Marin Redmond 2.03		45%11–10 (52%)+1.6
4Immaculata La Salle High School
Royal Lions		47.05
school +0.59		Danny Rianno / Soleil Aurignac 1.85
Umi Noritake / Caroline Caudron 2.27
Keith Grupenhoff / Holland Ramos		33%2–19 (10%)−4.9

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
1Antilles School8.228.8015–613.0+0.580.624%
3St. Thomas Aquinas High School7.537.9511–109.4+0.410.431%
2Ransom Everglades School8.178.5214–712.7+0.350.237%
4Immaculata La Salle High School7.055.062–196.9−2.004.7>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Winn MajetteAntilles School2.122.7015–613.0+0.580.624%
Andy YuAntilles School2.352.9315–613.0+0.580.624%
Mary (Lucy) MeagherSt. Thomas Aquinas High School2.032.4411–109.4+0.410.431%
Danny RiannoImmaculata La Salle High School1.85-0.142–196.9−2.004.7>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Antilles SchoolImmaculata La Salle High School72%
12Ransom Everglades SchoolSt. Thomas Aquinas High School61%
13St. Thomas Aquinas High SchoolImmaculata La Salle High School59%
14Antilles SchoolRansom Everglades School52%
15Antilles SchoolSt. Thomas Aquinas High School63%
16Ransom Everglades SchoolImmaculata La Salle High School70%
27Antilles SchoolImmaculata La Salle High School71%
28Ransom Everglades SchoolSt. Thomas Aquinas High School62%
29St. Thomas Aquinas High SchoolImmaculata La Salle High School59%
210Antilles SchoolRansom Everglades School51%
211Antilles SchoolSt. Thomas Aquinas High School63%
212Ransom Everglades SchoolImmaculata La Salle High School70%
313Antilles SchoolImmaculata La Salle High School71%
314Ransom Everglades SchoolSt. Thomas Aquinas High School62%
315St. Thomas Aquinas High SchoolImmaculata La Salle High School59%
316Ransom Everglades SchoolAntilles School49%upset
317Antilles SchoolSt. Thomas Aquinas High School63%
318Ransom Everglades SchoolImmaculata La Salle High School70%
419Antilles SchoolImmaculata La Salle High School71%
420St. Thomas Aquinas High SchoolRansom Everglades School38%upset
421St. Thomas Aquinas High SchoolImmaculata La Salle High School59%
422Antilles SchoolRansom Everglades School51%
423St. Thomas Aquinas High SchoolAntilles School37%upset
424Ransom Everglades SchoolImmaculata La Salle High School71%
525Antilles SchoolImmaculata La Salle High School71%
526St. Thomas Aquinas High SchoolRansom Everglades School38%upset
527St. Thomas Aquinas High SchoolImmaculata La Salle High School59%
528Antilles SchoolRansom Everglades School51%
529Antilles SchoolSt. Thomas Aquinas High School63%
530Ransom Everglades SchoolImmaculata La Salle High School71%
631Immaculata La Salle High SchoolAntilles School29%upset
632St. Thomas Aquinas High SchoolRansom Everglades School38%upset
633St. Thomas Aquinas High SchoolImmaculata La Salle High School59%
634Ransom Everglades SchoolAntilles School49%upset
635St. Thomas Aquinas High SchoolAntilles School37%upset
636Ransom Everglades SchoolImmaculata La Salle High School71%
737Antilles SchoolImmaculata La Salle High School71%
738Ransom Everglades SchoolSt. Thomas Aquinas High School62%
739Immaculata La Salle High SchoolSt. Thomas Aquinas High School41%upset
740Ransom Everglades SchoolAntilles School49%upset
741Antilles SchoolSt. Thomas Aquinas High School63%
742Ransom Everglades SchoolImmaculata La Salle High School71%
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Antilles School Hurricanes 2-3-4 def. Immaculata La Salle High School Royal Lions 1-5-6
2 Ransom Everglades School Raiders 1-3-5 def. St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 2-4-6
3 St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 1-2-4 def. Immaculata La Salle High School Royal Lions 3-5-6
4 Antilles School Hurricanes 1-2-3 def. Ransom Everglades School Raiders 4-5-6
5 Antilles School Hurricanes 1-2-5 def. St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 3-4-6
6 Ransom Everglades School Raiders 1-2-6 def. Immaculata La Salle High School Royal Lions 3-4-5
7 Antilles School Hurricanes 1-2-5 def. Immaculata La Salle High School Royal Lions 3-4-6
8 Ransom Everglades School Raiders 1-2-6 def. St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 3-4-5
9 St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 1-3-6 def. Immaculata La Salle High School Royal Lions 2-4-5
10 Antilles School Hurricanes 1-2-5 def. Ransom Everglades School Raiders 3-4-6
11 Antilles School Hurricanes 1-2-5 def. St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 3-4-6
12 Ransom Everglades School Raiders 1-2-6 def. Immaculata La Salle High School Royal Lions 3-4-5
13 Antilles School Hurricanes 1-2-6 def. Immaculata La Salle High School Royal Lions 3-4-5
14 Ransom Everglades School Raiders 1-2-5 def. St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 3-4-6
15 St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 1-2-6 def. Immaculata La Salle High School Royal Lions 3-4-5
16 Ransom Everglades School Raiders 1-2-6 def. Antilles School Hurricanes 3-4-5
17 Antilles School Hurricanes 1-3-4 def. St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 2-5-6
18 Ransom Everglades School Raiders 1-2-4 def. Immaculata La Salle High School Royal Lions 3-5-6
19 Antilles School Hurricanes 1-2-3 def. Immaculata La Salle High School Royal Lions 4-5-6
20 St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 1-2-6 def. Ransom Everglades School Raiders 3-4-5
21 St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 1-3-6 def. Immaculata La Salle High School Royal Lions 2-4-5
22 Antilles School Hurricanes 1-2-3 def. Ransom Everglades School Raiders 4-5-6
23 St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 1-2-5 def. Antilles School Hurricanes 3-4-6
24 Ransom Everglades School Raiders 1-2-5 def. Immaculata La Salle High School Royal Lions 3-4-6
25 Antilles School Hurricanes 1-2-6 def. Immaculata La Salle High School Royal Lions 3-4-5
26 St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 1-3-4 def. Ransom Everglades School Raiders 2-5-6
27 St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 1-2-5 def. Immaculata La Salle High School Royal Lions 3-4-6
28 Antilles School Hurricanes 1-2-4 def. Ransom Everglades School Raiders 3-5-6
29 Antilles School Hurricanes 1-2-6 def. St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 3-4-5
30 Ransom Everglades School Raiders 1-2-3 def. Immaculata La Salle High School Royal Lions 4-5-6
31 Immaculata La Salle High School Royal Lions 1-2-6 def. Antilles School Hurricanes 3-4-5
32 St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 1-2-5 def. Ransom Everglades School Raiders 3-4-6 DNF
33 St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 1-2-6 def. Immaculata La Salle High School Royal Lions 3-4-5
34 Ransom Everglades School Raiders 1-2-5 def. Antilles School Hurricanes 3-4-6
35 St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 1-2-4 def. Antilles School Hurricanes 3-5-6
36 Ransom Everglades School Raiders 1-2-3 def. Immaculata La Salle High School Royal Lions 4-5-6
37 Antilles School Hurricanes def. Immaculata La Salle High School Royal Lions
38 Ransom Everglades School Raiders 1-2-4 def. St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 3-5-6
39 Immaculata La Salle High School Royal Lions def. St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders
40 Ransom Everglades School Raiders def. Antilles School Hurricanes
41 Antilles School Hurricanes def. St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders
42 Ransom Everglades School Raiders def. Immaculata La Salle High School Royal Lions

Conditions — 04/15/2023 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 70%  ·  Pressure 1017.1 hPa

Temperature

82°F
↑ 85°F   ↓ 74°F
Feels like 90°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.7 kn
avg  ·  max 8.8 kn
Gusts to 17.1 kn
From SE (139°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover26% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity70% Pressure1017.1 hPa Rain0.01 in

What this breeze does at Ransom Everglades — from fleet racing

Breeze: SE about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Ransom Everglades in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.05)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Ransom Everglades by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 14 labelled days at Ransom Everglades, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →