Ransom Everglades School '24
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.99 (fleet 3.22) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 28–14 (67%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 | 1 | 10–2 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 2 | 17–9 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 1 | 1–3 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (42 matches) the record is 28–14 against 26.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.9). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-13 | SAISA Baker Team Race Qualifier | skipper | 2.30 | 3.15 | 10–2 | 8.8 | +0.85 | 0.5 | 33% |
| 2023-05-20 | 2023 Baker National Championship | skipper | 2.39 | 2.52 | 3–2 | 2.9 | +0.13 | 0.0 | 67% |
| 2023-04-15 | SAISA Baker Race Qualifier | skipper | 2.26 | 2.61 | 14–7 | 12.7 | +0.35 | 0.2 | 37% |
| 2022-05-21 | Baker Trophy 2022 | skipper | 2.16 | 0.81 | 1–3 | 1.7 | −1.35 | 0.5 | 94% |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Ian Fox |  University of Pennsylvania |
'28 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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