SAISA South Points 2 Varsity

HostJensen Beach
Date10/21/2023
TypeIn-District
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Raiders	13	17	30
2	Immaculata La Salle High School	Royal Lions	37	9	46
3	Jensen Beach High School	Falcons	24	27	51
4	St. Petersburg High School	Green Devils	23	38	61
5	Ransom Everglades School	Raiders	28	34	62
6	Oxbridge Academy	ThunderWolves	26	37	63
7	Pine Crest School	Panthers	36	39	75
8	Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart	Carrollton School	26	54	80
9	MAST Academy	Mast Academy	66	27	93
10	Palmer Trinity School	Falcons	48	45	93
11	Shorecrest Preparatory School	Chargers	46	50	96
12	Gulliver Preparatory School	Raiders	64	36	100
13	H. B. Plant High School	Panthers	65	65	130
14	Martin County High School	Tigers	65	78	143
15	Westminster Christian School	Warriors	57	91	148
16	Calvary Christian Academy	Calvary Christian Ac	77	71	148
17	VIMSIA	Varsity	79	71	150
18	South Fork High School	SF BULLDOGS	85	81	166
19	The Pine School	Knights	88	80	168

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	TOT	Sailors
St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Raiders	3	1	4	1	4	13	Cody Roe '25 [1-4] Marin Redmond '28 [5] Danielle Lynch Smith '26 [1-4]
St. Petersburg High School	Green Devils	4	9	6	3	1	23	Dorothy Mendelblatt '24 Adam Mendelblatt '26
Jensen Beach High School	Falcons	6	2	1	10	5	24	William Kulas '24 Elizabeth Wire '24
Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart	Carrollton School	1	6	2	6	11	26	Audrey Russler '26 Paulina Freyre '25
Oxbridge Academy	ThunderWolves	2	3	3	9	9	26	Tyler Lamm '24 Vaughn Grove '26
Ransom Everglades School	Raiders	10	4	8	4	2	28	Ian Fox '24 [1-2, 5] Sebastian Van De Kreeke '25 [3-4] Manolo Campos '25 [1-2, 5] Christine Keedy-Brown '24 [3-4]
Pine Crest School	Panthers	9	5	14	5	3	36	Jake Julien '24 [1-4] Miles Julien '27 [5] Aurora Christiansen '26 [1-4]
Immaculata La Salle High School	Royal Lions	11	8	5	7	6	37	Umi Noritake '24 Nathalie Caudron '25
Shorecrest Preparatory School	Chargers	5	7	7	14	13	46	Kate Danielson '24 [1-5] Ainsley Braun '25 [1-4] Anastasia Davis '26 [5]
Palmer Trinity School	Falcons	12	12	15	2	7	48	Brayden Benesch '24 Carlos Roig '24
Westminster Christian School	Warriors	14	14	10	11	8	57	Will Barnhart '25 Luis Bermudez '27
Gulliver Preparatory School	Raiders	15	10	9	OCS	10	64	Dante Garcia '24 Alexandra Jones '24
H. B. Plant High School	Panthers	7	13	13	OCS	12	65	Ian Richardson '25 [1-5] Ava Cohen '25 [1-4] John Lawson '27 [5]
Martin County High School	Tigers	13	11	12	13	16	65	Kyle Weiksnar '25 David Wedde '27
MAST Academy	Mast Academy	8	16	17	8	17	66	Oliver Holt '26 [1-2, 5] Ash Raval '24 [3-4] Julia Gil '26 [1-2, 5]
Calvary Christian Academy	Calvary Christian Ac	19	17	11	15	15	77	Sophia Debs '24 Austin Norman '26
VIMSIA	Varsity	16	15	18	16	14	79	Jackson Auchincloss '24 Ellis Wisehart '26
South Fork High School	SF BULLDOGS	17	18	19	12	19	85	Rylan Morris '24 Lexi Trimble '24
The Pine School	Knights	18	19	16	17	18	88	Carter Polachek '25 Harper Grant '25

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	TOT	Sailors
Immaculata La Salle High School	Royal Lions	1	2	3	1	2	9	Keith Grupenhoff '25 [1-5] Marco Andres '25 [1-2] Soleil Aurignac '25 [3-5]
St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Raiders	2	3	9	2	1	17	Kj Hill '25 Isabel Viega '28
MAST Academy	Mast Academy	5	6	2	4	10	27	Davide Bazzoni '26 Maryna Downey '27
Jensen Beach High School	Falcons	8	4	5	6	4	27	Grant Schmidt '24 Genevieve Schmidt '26
Ransom Everglades School	Raiders	6	8	12	5	3	34	Ava Mc Aliley '26 [1-2] Garrett Fox '26 [3-5] Lucas Lippy '25 [1-2] Amelia Lazarus '25 [3-5]
Gulliver Preparatory School	Raiders	3	12	1	15	5	36	Alfonso Lanseros '27 Diogo Cruz '25
Oxbridge Academy	ThunderWolves	4	1	8	17	7	37	Andrew Lamm '26 Noah Rabiei '25
St. Petersburg High School	Green Devils	10	10	4	3	11	38	Gloria Privis '26 Avery Hunter '25
Pine Crest School	Panthers	7	5	10	11	6	39	Connor Mertz '25 Jake Taubman '25
Palmer Trinity School	Falcons	9	9	7	8	12	45	Kyla Benesch '27 Reece Weber '24
Shorecrest Preparatory School	Chargers	13	7	6	16	8	50	Rosie Simpson '25 [1-5] Ellen Hommeyer '26 [1-2] Josh O'Connor '26 [3-5]
Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart	Carrollton School	11	11	13	10	9	54	Isabella Storm '26 [1-5] Addison Grinan '24 [1-2] Carola Zapata '26 [3-5]
H. B. Plant High School	Panthers	12	19	11	9	14	65	Jessica Martello '27 [1-5] John Lawson '27 [1-2] Ava Cohen '25 [3-5]
VIMSIA	Varsity	14	13	15	14	15	71	Rush Sudziarski '28 Aurora Rodriguez '26
Calvary Christian Academy	Calvary Christian Ac	18	17	16	7	13	71	Emmett Debs '26 Sofia Ladino '24
Martin County High School	Tigers	15	14	14	18	17	78	Grady Stahl '26 Mia Stahl '27
The Pine School	Knights	16	15	19	12	18	80	Harper Aberman '26 [1-5] Karen Becher '26 [1-2] No Show [3-5]
South Fork High School	SF BULLDOGS	17	18	17	13	16	81	Brady Koren '24 Claire Rawlings '26
Westminster Christian School	Warriors	19	16	18	19	19	91	Castan Conley '27 Peter Gleason '28

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.140+0.14

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2021 (6 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A
Calvary Christian Academy Calvary Christian Ac	1	1	1	1	1
Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart Carrollton School	2	2	2	2	2
Gulliver Preparatory School Raiders	3	3	3	3	3
Immaculata La Salle High School Royal Lions	5	5	5	5	5
Jensen Beach High School Falcons	6	6	6	6	6
Martin County High School Tigers	8	8	8	8	8
MAST Academy Mast Academy	7	7	7	7	7
Oxbridge Academy ThunderWolves	9	9	9	9	9
Palmer Trinity School Falcons	10	10	10	10	10
VIMSIA Varsity	18	18	18	18	18
Pine Crest School Panthers	11	11	11	11	11
H. B. Plant High School Panthers	4	4	4	4	4
Ransom Everglades School Raiders	12	12	12	12	12
St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders	16	16	16	16	16
Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers	13	13	13	13	13
South Fork High School SF BULLDOGS	14	14	14	14	14
St. Petersburg High School Green Devils	15	15	15	15	15
The Pine School Knights	17	17	17	17	17
Westminster Christian School Warriors	19	19	19	19	19

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B
Calvary Christian Academy Calvary Christian Ac	1	1	1	1	1
Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart Carrollton School	2	2	2	2	2
Gulliver Preparatory School Raiders	3	3	3	3	3
Immaculata La Salle High School Royal Lions	5	5	5	5	5
Jensen Beach High School Falcons	6	6	6	6	6
Martin County High School Tigers	8	8	8	8	8
MAST Academy Mast Academy	7	7	7	7	7
Oxbridge Academy ThunderWolves	9	9	9	9	9
Palmer Trinity School Falcons	10	10	10	10	10
VIMSIA Varsity	18	18	18	18	18
Pine Crest School Panthers	11	11	11	11	11
H. B. Plant High School Panthers	4	4	4	4	4
Ransom Everglades School Raiders	12	12	12	12	12
St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders	16	16	16	16	16
Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers	13	13	13	13	13
South Fork High School SF BULLDOGS	14	14	14	14	14
St. Petersburg High School Green Devils	15	15	15	15	15
The Pine School Knights	17	17	17	17	17
Westminster Christian School Warriors	19	19	19	19	19

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Calvary Christian Academy	Sophia Debs '24	Austin Norman '26
Calvary Christian Ac	Emmett Debs '26	Sofia Ladino '24
Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart	Audrey Russler '26	Paulina Freyre '25
Carrollton School	Isabella Storm '26 [1-5]	Addison Grinan '24 [1-2] Carola Zapata '26 [3-5]
Gulliver Preparatory School	Dante Garcia '24	Alexandra Jones '24
Raiders	Alfonso Lanseros '27	Diogo Cruz '25
H. B. Plant High School	Ian Richardson '25 [1-5]	Ava Cohen '25 [1-4] John Lawson '27 [5]
Panthers	Jessica Martello '27 [1-5]	John Lawson '27 [1-2] Ava Cohen '25 [3-5]
Immaculata La Salle High School	Umi Noritake '24	Nathalie Caudron '25
Royal Lions	Keith Grupenhoff '25 [1-5]	Marco Andres '25 [1-2] Soleil Aurignac '25 [3-5]
Jensen Beach High School	William Kulas '24	Elizabeth Wire '24
Falcons	Grant Schmidt '24	Genevieve Schmidt '26
MAST Academy	Oliver Holt '26 [1-2, 5] Ash Raval '24 [3-4]	Julia Gil '26 [1-2, 5]
Mast Academy	Davide Bazzoni '26	Maryna Downey '27
Martin County High School	Kyle Weiksnar '25	David Wedde '27
Tigers	Grady Stahl '26	Mia Stahl '27
Oxbridge Academy	Tyler Lamm '24	Vaughn Grove '26
ThunderWolves	Andrew Lamm '26	Noah Rabiei '25
Palmer Trinity School	Brayden Benesch '24	Carlos Roig '24
Falcons	Kyla Benesch '27	Reece Weber '24
Pine Crest School	Jake Julien '24 [1-4] Miles Julien '27 [5]	Aurora Christiansen '26 [1-4]
Panthers	Connor Mertz '25	Jake Taubman '25
Ransom Everglades School	Ian Fox '24 [1-2, 5] Sebastian Van De Kreeke '25 [3-4]	Manolo Campos '25 [1-2, 5] Christine Keedy-Brown '24 [3-4]
Raiders	Ava Mc Aliley '26 [1-2] Garrett Fox '26 [3-5]	Lucas Lippy '25 [1-2] Amelia Lazarus '25 [3-5]
Shorecrest Preparatory School	Kate Danielson '24 [1-5]	Ainsley Braun '25 [1-4] Anastasia Davis '26 [5]
Chargers	Rosie Simpson '25 [1-5]	Ellen Hommeyer '26 [1-2] Josh O'Connor '26 [3-5]
South Fork High School	Rylan Morris '24	Lexi Trimble '24
SF BULLDOGS	Brady Koren '24	Claire Rawlings '26
St. Petersburg High School	Dorothy Mendelblatt '24	Adam Mendelblatt '26
Green Devils	Gloria Privis '26	Avery Hunter '25
St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Cody Roe '25 [1-4] Marin Redmond '28 [5]	Danielle Lynch Smith '26 [1-4]
Raiders	Kj Hill '25	Isabel Viega '28
The Pine School	Carter Polachek '25	Harper Grant '25
Knights	Harper Aberman '26 [1-5]	Karen Becher '26 [1-2] No Show [3-5]
VIMSIA	Jackson Auchincloss '24	Ellis Wisehart '26
Varsity	Rush Sudziarski '28	Aurora Rodriguez '26
Westminster Christian School	Will Barnhart '25	Luis Bermudez '27
Warriors	Castan Conley '27	Peter Gleason '28

Conditions — 10/21/2023 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 50% · Pressure 1012.3 hPa

Temperature

82°F

↑ 87°F ↓ 69°F

Feels like 84°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

5.1 kn

avg · max 8.0 kn

Gusts to 16.3 kn

From NW (312°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover1% Sunshine10.4 hrs Humidity50% Pressure1012.3 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Jensen Beach: a favourites’ day (+0.10)

Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.

Fleet adjustment −0.02 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast +0.08

Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.15 ± 0.12)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 9% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Jensen Beach by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 6 labelled days at Jensen Beach, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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