St. Thomas Aquinas High School '25
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.46 (fleet 3.97) | 17 of 231 | +0.01 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 33–32 (51%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 | 1 | 14–10 | — |
| Spring 2024 | 1 | 4–8 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 1 | 11–10 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 1 | 4–4 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (65 matches) the record is 33–32 against 32.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.1). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-26 | SAISA Baker Qualifier | skipper | 2.71 | 2.83 | 14–10 | 13.5 | +0.12 | 0.0 | 50% |
| 2024-04-13 | SAISA Baker Team Race Qualifier | skipper | 2.56 | 1.25 | 4–8 | 6.3 | −1.31 | 1.6 | 97% |
| 2023-04-15 | SAISA Baker Race Qualifier | skipper | 2.60 | 3.01 | 11–10 | 9.4 | +0.41 | 0.4 | 31% |
| 2022-05-07 | SAISA Baker Team Racing District Championships | skipper | 2.21 | 2.41 | 4–4 | 3.8 | +0.20 | 0.0 | 58% |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Cody Roe |  Boston College |
'29 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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