| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Ransom Everglades School | Raiders | 10–2 |
| 2 |  |
Antilles School | Hurricanes | 9–3 |
| 3 |  |
MAST Academy | Mast Academy | 6–6 |
| 4 |  |
St. Thomas Aquinas High School | Raiders | 4–8 |
| 5 |  |
Immaculata La Salle High School | Royal Lions | 2–4 |
| 6 |  |
Pine Crest School | Panthers | 2–4 |
| 7 |  |
Gulliver Preparatory School | Raiders | 0–6 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 10,622 team race matches sailed before 2024-04-13, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 26 of 33 matches (79%) with a log-loss of 0.518 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.26 ± 0.40: a typical event, more orderly than 23% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | MAST Academy | 5.45 | 6.89 | 6–6 | 3.4 | +1.45 | 2.2 | 7% |
| 1 | Ransom Everglades School | 7.79 | 8.64 | 10–2 | 8.8 | +0.85 | 0.5 | 33% |
| 6 | Pine Crest School | 4.43 | 5.12 | 2–4 | 1.5 | +0.69 | 0.2 | 47% |
| 2 | Antilles School | 7.63 | 7.93 | 9–3 | 8.5 | +0.30 | 0.1 | 52% |
| 4 | St. Thomas Aquinas High School | 6.71 | 5.40 | 4–8 | 6.3 | −1.31 | 1.6 | 97% |
| 5 | Immaculata La Salle High School | 6.76 | 4.68 | 2–4 | 3.8 | −2.08 | 2.0 | 99% |
| 7 | Gulliver Preparatory School | 3.51 | 0.51 | 0–6 | 0.7 | ≤−3.00 | 1.1 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Mertz | Pine Crest School | 1.60 | 2.29 | 2–4 | 1.5 | +0.69 | 0.2 | 47% |
| Jake Taubman | Pine Crest School | 0.87 | 1.56 | 2–4 | 1.5 | +0.69 | 0.2 | 47% |
| Miles Julien | Pine Crest School | 1.70 | 2.38 | 2–4 | 1.5 | +0.69 | 0.2 | 47% |
| Alejo Diblasi | Antilles School | 1.67 | 1.97 | 9–3 | 8.5 | +0.30 | 0.1 | 52% |
| Marin Redmond | St. Thomas Aquinas High School | 1.38 | 0.08 | 4–8 | 6.3 | −1.31 | 1.6 | 97% |
| Kj Hill | St. Thomas Aquinas High School | 2.07 | 0.76 | 4–8 | 6.3 | −1.31 | 1.6 | 97% |
| David Mateo Coates | Immaculata La Salle High School | 2.24 | 0.16 | 2–4 | 3.8 | −2.08 | 2.0 | 99% |
| Afonso Cruz | Gulliver Preparatory School | 1.14 | -1.86 | 0–6 | 0.7 | ≤−3.00 | 1.1 | >99% |
| Diogo Cruz | Gulliver Preparatory School | 1.13 | -1.87 | 0–6 | 0.7 | ≤−3.00 | 1.1 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Panthers | 3-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Mast Academy | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Raiders | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Royal Lions | 2-4-5 |
| 4 | |
Raiders | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Panthers | 3-4-5 |
| 5 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Royal Lions | 3-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Raiders | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Mast Academy | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Panthers | 1-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Raiders | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Royal Lions | 2-4-5 |
| 9 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Mast Academy | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Royal Lions | 3-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Panthers | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 1-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Raiders | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 3-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Royal Lions | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Mast Academy | 3-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Raiders | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Hurricanes | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 2-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Mast Academy | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Raiders | 4-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Panthers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 1-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Raiders | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Royal Lions | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Panthers | 3-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Raiders | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Mast Academy | 3-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mast Academy | 4-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Raiders | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-6 |
| 24 | |
Hurricanes | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Raiders | 2-4-5 |
| 25 | |
Raiders | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Mast Academy | 3-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Raiders | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Mast Academy | 3-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-5 |
| 28 | |
Mast Academy | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 3-4-6 |
| 29 | |
Raiders | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-6 |
| 30 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-6 |
| 31 | |
Raiders | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Mast Academy | 3-4-5 |
| 32 | |
Mast Academy | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Raiders | 4-5-6 |
| 33 | |
Raiders | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 3-4-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
