St. Thomas Aquinas High School '25
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.48 (fleet 2.39) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 3–0 (100%) as crew 2–5 (29%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 | 1 | 3–0 | — |
| Spring 2024 | 1 | — | 2–5 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (10 matches) the record is 5–5 against 6.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.6). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-26 | SAISA Baker Qualifier | skipper | 1.87 | 4.87 | 3–0 | 2.7 | ≥+3.00 | 0.4 | 75% |
| 2024-04-13 | SAISA Baker Team Race Qualifier | crew | 1.38 | -0.42 | 2–5 | 3.9 | −1.81 | 1.9 | 98% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA SP's 3 2025 | Skipper | B | 4 | 10.2 | 0.99 |
| SAISA SP's 1 | Skipper | B | 3 | 5.7 | 2.38 |
| SAISA Baker Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 24 | 58% | — |
| 2025 South Points No. 4 | Skipper | B | 5 | 5.4 | 2.38 |
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| South Points ACC Qualifier | Skipper | B | 2 | 4.0 | 3.08 |
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| SP 6 (SAISA) | Skipper | B | 3 | 5.0 | 2.38 |
| SAISA South Points #5 | Skipper | B | 2 | 12.5 | 0.67 |
| SAISA Baker Team Race Qualifier | Crew | TR | 12 | 33% | — |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| South Points #3 | Skipper | B | 8 | 3.4 | 3.26 |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| South Points #7 Vero Beach JV | Skipper | A | 6 | 4.0 | 1.00 |
| SAISA South Points 1 2022-23 JV | Skipper | A | 6 | 7.0 | -0.01 |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| South Points #3 JV | Skipper | A | 4 | 5.2 | 1.52 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| South Points 7 JV | Skipper | A | 7 | 4.0 | 1.07 |
| SAISA South Points SP#5 Junior Varsity | Skipper | A | 7 | 3.9 | 1.40 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA South Points 1 - JV 2021 | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.0 | 1.96 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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