South Points #3

HostRiverview
Date11/04/2023
TypeIn-District
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Oxbridge Academy	ThunderWolves	41	21	62
2	Immaculata La Salle High School	Royal Lions	35	27	62
3	Palmer Trinity School	Falcons	45	32	77
4	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Raiders	60	27	87
5	Pine Crest School	Panthers	58	52	110
6	Shorecrest Preparatory School	Chargers	55	59	114
7	St. Petersburg High School	Green Devils	46	79	125
8	Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart	Carrollton School	53	86	139
9	Gulliver Preparatory School	Raiders	66	82	148
10	Antilles School	Hurricanes	54	102	156
11	MAST Academy	Mast Academy	95	90	185
12	Riverview High School	Varsity	90	95	185
13	South Fork High School	SF BULLDOGS	104	104	208
14	Sarasota High School	Sailors	94	116	210
15	H. B. Plant High School	Panthers	103	119	222
16	Martin County High School	Tigers	114	111	225
17	Calvary Christian Academy	Calvary Christian Ac	152	74	226
18	Pine View School	Python Varsity	140	119	259
19	Venice High School (FL)	Indians	144	138	282
20	The Pine School	Knights	146	162	308
21	Admiral Farragut Academy	Varsity	155	154	309

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	TOT	Sailors
Immaculata La Salle High School	Royal Lions	3	1	2	9	4	6	4	6	35	Umi Noritake '24 [1-8] Marco Andres '25 [1-4] Nathalie Caudron '25 [5-8]
Oxbridge Academy	ThunderWolves	1	3	1	1	1	4	DNF	8	41	Tyler Lamm '24 Vaughn Grove '26
Palmer Trinity School	Falcons	7	4	10	7	3	3	9	2	45	Brayden Benesch '24 [1-8] Carlos Roig '24 [1-4, 7-8] Reece Weber '24 [5-6]
St. Petersburg High School	Green Devils	5	7	4	2	2	15	7	4	46	Dorothy Mendelblatt '24 [1-8] Dluzneski Luke '24 [1-4] Adam Mendelblatt '26 [5-8]
Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart	Carrollton School	4	13	5	3	5	14	8	1	53	Audrey Russler '26 Paulina Freyre '25
Antilles School	Hurricanes	2	5	3	4	13	7	15	5	54	Alejo Diblasi '25 Isabell Thill '25
Shorecrest Preparatory School	Chargers	8	8	7	11	15	2	1	3	55	Kate Danielson '24 Ellen Hommeyer '26
Pine Crest School	Panthers	9	2	6	8	8	5	5	15	58	Connor Mertz '25 Jake Taubman '25
St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Raiders	13	6	8	12	7	1	3	10	60	Marin Redmond '28 [1-8] Parker Bustamante '25 [1-2] Ava Meshel '24 [3-4] Isabel Viega '28 [5-8]
Gulliver Preparatory School	Raiders	6	9	11	6	14	11	2	7	66	Dante Garcia '24 Diogo Cruz '25
Riverview High School	Varsity	12	12	9	5	RAF	8	10	12	90	Raphael Ducrey '28 [1-8] Byron Smith '29 [1-6] Nicholas Papazian '24 [7-8]
Sarasota High School	Sailors	11	15	12	10	10	10	12	14	94	Millie French '25 Samantha Jones '25
MAST Academy	Mast Academy	10	10	18	13	6	12	13	13	95	Oliver Holt '26 Julia Gil '26
H. B. Plant High School	Panthers	15	18	13	14	12	9	6	16	103	Jessica Martello '27 [1-4] Tom Seibold '25 [5-8] Lydia Woolson '24 [1-4]
South Fork High School	SF BULLDOGS	14	11	14	15	9	16	16	9	104	Rylan Morris '24 Lexi Trimble '24
Martin County High School	Tigers	19	16	17	16	11	13	11	11	114	David Wedde '27 Kyle Weiksnar '25
Pine View School	Python Varsity	18	21	15	17	17	18	17	17	140	Natalie Hoffman '26 Mia Quijano '26
Venice High School (FL)	Indians	16	14	16	19	20	20	20	19	144	Hudson Regan '26 [1-6] Katie Plate '25 [7-8] Ben Kuzmik '27 [1-6] Emma Watson '26 [7-8]
The Pine School	Knights	17	17	21	21	19	19	14	18	146	Carter Polachek '25 No Show
Calvary Christian Academy	Calvary Christian Ac	20	19	20	20	16	17	19	21	152	Sophia Debs '24 Sofia Ladino '24
Admiral Farragut Academy	Varsity	21	20	19	18	18	21	18	20	155	Noah Davis '24 Lily Cary '24

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	TOT	Sailors
Oxbridge Academy	ThunderWolves	1	1	2	1	7	1	6	2	21	Andrew Lamm '26 Noah Rabiei '25
St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Raiders	2	5	7	3	3	4	2	1	27	Mariano Viega '25 [1-8] Parker Bustamante '25 [1-2] Danielle Lynch Smith '26 [3-8]
Immaculata La Salle High School	Royal Lions	RDG	3	4	4	4	5	1	3	27	Keith Grupenhoff '25 [1-8] Jadin Gonzalez '24 [1-4] Soleil Aurignac '25 [5-8]
Palmer Trinity School	Falcons	5	2	1	5	2	3	3	11	32	Kyla Benesch '27 [1-8] Ignacio Del Hierro '25 [1-6] Reece Weber '24 [7-8]
Pine Crest School	Panthers	8	6	15	2	10	2	5	4	52	Miles Julien '27 [1-2, 7-8] Jake Julien '24 [3-6] Jake Julien '24 [1-2] Aurora Christiansen '26 [3-8]
Shorecrest Preparatory School	Chargers	3	9	5	6	9	6	16	5	59	Rosie Simpson '25 Josh O'Connor '26
Calvary Christian Academy	Calvary Christian Ac	9	4	12	12	5	11	13	8	74	Emmett Debs '26 Austin Norman '26
St. Petersburg High School	Green Devils	11	8	8	OCS	1	15	7	7	79	Ryder Ellis '27 Avery Hunter '25
Gulliver Preparatory School	Raiders	16	13	3	15	16	9	4	6	82	Afonso Cruz '26 [1-8] Millie Mccormick '25 [1-2, 5-6] Danika Torres '27 [3-4, 7-8]
Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart	Carrollton School	DSQ	10	6	7	6	8	10	17	86	Isabella Storm '26 Addison Grinan '24
MAST Academy	Mast Academy	13	17	10	8	8	13	9	12	90	Davide Bazzoni '26 Maryna Downey '27
Riverview High School	Varsity	10	15	17	16	12	7	8	10	95	Jonah Sroka '24 [1-8] Nicholas Papazian '24 [1-6] Byron Smith '29 [7-8]
Antilles School	Hurricanes	12	7	OCS	9	15	14	14	9	102	Cruz Lonski '25 Rena Yu '27
South Fork High School	SF BULLDOGS	18	11	11	14	13	10	11	16	104	Brady Koren '24 Angel Black '24
Martin County High School	Tigers	15	12	13	17	14	12	15	13	111	Grady Stahl '26 Mia Stahl '27
Sarasota High School	Sailors	6	18	16	10	11	20	17	18	116	Payton Ruback '27 Jade Cambell '26
H. B. Plant High School	Panthers	4	14	9	11	19	19	OCS	21	119	Ava Cohen '25 Colin Anderson '26
Pine View School	Python Varsity	7	19	14	13	18	16	18	14	119	Dylan Lopez '27 Gabriella Pina '27
Venice High School (FL)	Indians	17	16	DNS	DNS	17	17	12	15	138	Gabriella Pina '27 Erinne Fenton '25
Admiral Farragut Academy	Varsity	20	20	18	18	21	18	19	20	154	Robert Rosa '24 Tamsyn Maginness '25
The Pine School	Knights	19	DNS	19	19	20	DNS	DNS	19	162	Harper Aberman '26 Harper Grant '25

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.370+0.37

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2023 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A
Admiral Farragut Academy Varsity	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
Antilles School Hurricanes	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16
Calvary Christian Academy Calvary Christian Ac	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20
Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart Carrollton School	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21
Gulliver Preparatory School Raiders	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17
Immaculata La Salle High School Royal Lions	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12
Martin County High School Tigers	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11
MAST Academy Mast Academy	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
Oxbridge Academy ThunderWolves	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
Palmer Trinity School Falcons	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6
Pine Crest School Panthers	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18
Pine View School Python Varsity	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
H. B. Plant High School Panthers	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15
Riverview High School Varsity	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14
Sarasota High School Sailors	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13
South Fork High School SF BULLDOGS	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9
St. Petersburg High School Green Devils	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19
The Pine School Knights	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8
Venice High School (FL) Indians	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B
Admiral Farragut Academy Varsity	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
Antilles School Hurricanes	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16
Calvary Christian Academy Calvary Christian Ac	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20
Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart Carrollton School	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21
Gulliver Preparatory School Raiders	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17
Immaculata La Salle High School Royal Lions	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12
Martin County High School Tigers	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11
MAST Academy Mast Academy	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
Oxbridge Academy ThunderWolves	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
Palmer Trinity School Falcons	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6
Pine Crest School Panthers	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18
Pine View School Python Varsity	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
H. B. Plant High School Panthers	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15
Riverview High School Varsity	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14
Sarasota High School Sailors	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13
South Fork High School SF BULLDOGS	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9
St. Petersburg High School Green Devils	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19
The Pine School Knights	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8
Venice High School (FL) Indians	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Admiral Farragut Academy	Noah Davis '24	Lily Cary '24
Varsity	Robert Rosa '24	Tamsyn Maginness '25
Antilles School	Alejo Diblasi '25	Isabell Thill '25
Hurricanes	Cruz Lonski '25	Rena Yu '27
Calvary Christian Academy	Sophia Debs '24	Sofia Ladino '24
Calvary Christian Ac	Emmett Debs '26	Austin Norman '26
Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart	Audrey Russler '26	Paulina Freyre '25
Carrollton School	Isabella Storm '26	Addison Grinan '24
Gulliver Preparatory School	Dante Garcia '24	Diogo Cruz '25
Raiders	Afonso Cruz '26 [1-8]	Millie Mccormick '25 [1-2, 5-6] Danika Torres '27 [3-4, 7-8]
H. B. Plant High School	Jessica Martello '27 [1-4] Tom Seibold '25 [5-8]	Lydia Woolson '24 [1-4]
Panthers	Ava Cohen '25	Colin Anderson '26
Immaculata La Salle High School	Umi Noritake '24 [1-8]	Marco Andres '25 [1-4] Nathalie Caudron '25 [5-8]
Royal Lions	Keith Grupenhoff '25 [1-8]	Jadin Gonzalez '24 [1-4] Soleil Aurignac '25 [5-8]
MAST Academy	Oliver Holt '26	Julia Gil '26
Mast Academy	Davide Bazzoni '26	Maryna Downey '27
Martin County High School	David Wedde '27	Kyle Weiksnar '25
Tigers	Grady Stahl '26	Mia Stahl '27
Oxbridge Academy	Tyler Lamm '24	Vaughn Grove '26
ThunderWolves	Andrew Lamm '26	Noah Rabiei '25
Palmer Trinity School	Brayden Benesch '24 [1-8]	Carlos Roig '24 [1-4, 7-8] Reece Weber '24 [5-6]
Falcons	Kyla Benesch '27 [1-8]	Ignacio Del Hierro '25 [1-6] Reece Weber '24 [7-8]
Pine Crest School	Connor Mertz '25	Jake Taubman '25
Panthers	Miles Julien '27 [1-2, 7-8] Jake Julien '24 [3-6]	Jake Julien '24 [1-2] Aurora Christiansen '26 [3-8]
Pine View School	Natalie Hoffman '26	Mia Quijano '26
Python Varsity	Dylan Lopez '27	Gabriella Pina '27
Riverview High School	Raphael Ducrey '28 [1-8]	Byron Smith '29 [1-6] Nicholas Papazian '24 [7-8]
Varsity	Jonah Sroka '24 [1-8]	Nicholas Papazian '24 [1-6] Byron Smith '29 [7-8]
Sarasota High School	Millie French '25	Samantha Jones '25
Sailors	Payton Ruback '27	Jade Cambell '26
Shorecrest Preparatory School	Kate Danielson '24	Ellen Hommeyer '26
Chargers	Rosie Simpson '25	Josh O'Connor '26
South Fork High School	Rylan Morris '24	Lexi Trimble '24
SF BULLDOGS	Brady Koren '24	Angel Black '24
St. Petersburg High School	Dorothy Mendelblatt '24 [1-8]	Dluzneski Luke '24 [1-4] Adam Mendelblatt '26 [5-8]
Green Devils	Ryder Ellis '27	Avery Hunter '25
St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Marin Redmond '28 [1-8]	Parker Bustamante '25 [1-2] Ava Meshel '24 [3-4] Isabel Viega '28 [5-8]
Raiders	Mariano Viega '25 [1-8]	Parker Bustamante '25 [1-2] Danielle Lynch Smith '26 [3-8]
The Pine School	Carter Polachek '25	No Show
Knights	Harper Aberman '26	Harper Grant '25
Venice High School (FL)	Hudson Regan '26 [1-6] Katie Plate '25 [7-8]	Ben Kuzmik '27 [1-6] Emma Watson '26 [7-8]
Indians	Gabriella Pina '27	Erinne Fenton '25

Conditions — 11/04/2023 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 55% · Pressure 1018.6 hPa

Temperature

76°F

↑ 83°F ↓ 61°F

Feels like 74°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

8.6 kn

avg · max 9.8 kn

Gusts to 18.5 kn

From NNE (32°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover10% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity55% Pressure1018.6 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 11 kn (scorer’s report)

In this breeze at Riverview: an underdogs’ day (−0.09)

Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.

Fleet adjustment +0.01 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.08

Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.14 ± 0.08)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Riverview by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 2 labelled days at Riverview, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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