H. B. Plant High School '25
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.77 (fleet 2.88) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.02 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 8–3 (73%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2024 | 2 | 8–3 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (11 matches) the record is 8–3 against 8.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.8). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-08 | VISA Christchurch School Team Race | skipper | 1.98 | -0.53 | 3–3 | 4.2 | −2.51 | 1.8 | 99% |
| 2024-10-05 | VISA Team race Championship | skipper | 1.76 | 4.76 | 5–0 | 4.6 | ≥+3.00 | 0.5 | 68% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| SP 6 (SAISA) | Skipper | A | 5 | 10.2 | 0.14 |
| South Points #7 | Skipper | A | 5 | 7.2 | 0.98 |
| SAISA SP's #4 | Skipper | A | 14 | 6.5 | 1.35 |
| SAISA South Points #5 | Skipper | A | 6 | 10.7 | 0.51 |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| South Points #3 | Skipper | A | 4 | 10.8 | 0.68 |
| SAISA South Points 1 2023-24 | Skipper | B | 6 | 7.0 | 2.06 |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| SP's #4 St Pete/USF | Skipper | A | 13 | 9.3 | 0.26 |
| SAISA SP#5 Varsity | Skipper | B | 5 | 5.6 | 1.99 |
| SAISA SP #6 - Varsity | Skipper | B | 8 | 5.4 | 1.35 |
| SAISA South Points 1 2022-23 | Skipper | B | 4 | 6.0 | 1.22 |
| SAISA Mallory Qualifier | Skipper | B | 12 | 9.3 | 0.96 |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| South Points 3 | Skipper | B | 4 | 2.5 | 3.12 |
| SAISA South Points #2 Varsity | Skipper | B | 4 | 6.5 | 0.86 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Tom Seibold |  Christchurch School |
'26 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
To have this profile removed, email quinnbrighton2005@gmail.com.
