| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Christchurch School | Seahorses 1 | 6–0 |
| 2 | |
Christchurch School | Seahorses 2 | 3–3 |
| 3 | |
Christchurch School | Seahorses 4 | 2–4 |
| 4 | |
Christchurch School | Seahorses 3 | 1–5 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 11,691 team race matches sailed before 2024-10-08, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 11 of 12 matches (92%) with a log-loss of 0.403 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness −0.91 ± 0.66: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 9% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christchurch School Seahorses 1 | 1 | 8.62 school +0.20, home +0.20 | Bo Angus / Brooke Mertz 2.98 Elliott Lipp / Suzie Nguyen 2.41 Wylder Smith / Malia Deane 2.80 | 92% | 6–0 (100%) | +0.5 |
| 2 | Christchurch School Seahorses 2 | 2 | 6.83 school +0.20, home +0.20 | Madeline Janzen / Bennett Moss 2.34 Tom Seibold / Cherry Phan 1.98 Wyatt Lipp / Cindy Zhang 1.99 | 70% | 3–3 (50%) | −1.2 |
| 3 | Christchurch School Seahorses 4 | 3 | 3.55 school +0.20, home +0.20 | Simone Moss / Emma Ho 0.79 Adelaide Matzky / Rivers Hickey Chloe Shurr / Olivia Wolff | 27% | 2–4 (33%) | +0.4 |
| 4 | Christchurch School Seahorses 3 | 4 | 2.36 school +0.20, home +0.20 | Gp Keating / Millicent Branflick 1.62 Pierson Teer / Minh Tho Nguyen Nicholas Cromartie / Carly Moss | 10% | 1–5 (17%) | +0.4 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christchurch School Seahorses 1 | 8.62 | 11.62 | 6–0 | 5.5 | ≥+3.00 | 0.6 | 60% |
| 4 | Christchurch School Seahorses 3 | 2.36 | 3.23 | 1–5 | 0.6 | +0.86 | 0.2 | 51% |
| 3 | Christchurch School Seahorses 4 | 3.55 | 4.39 | 2–4 | 1.6 | +0.85 | 0.2 | 59% |
| 2 | Christchurch School Seahorses 2 | 6.83 | 4.32 | 3–3 | 4.2 | −2.51 | 1.8 | 99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wylder Smith | Christchurch School | 2.80 | 5.80 | 6–0 | 5.5 | ≥+3.00 | 0.6 | 60% |
| Gp Keating | Christchurch School | 1.62 | 2.49 | 1–5 | 0.6 | +0.86 | 0.2 | 51% |
| Pierson Teer | Christchurch School | 0.45 | 1.32 | 1–5 | 0.6 | +0.86 | 0.2 | 51% |
| Nicholas Cromartie | Christchurch School | -0.22 | 0.64 | 1–5 | 0.6 | +0.86 | 0.2 | 51% |
| Adelaide Matzky | Christchurch School | 1.43 | 2.28 | 2–4 | 1.6 | +0.85 | 0.2 | 59% |
| Madeline Janzen | Christchurch School | 2.34 | -0.17 | 3–3 | 4.2 | −2.51 | 1.8 | 99% |
| Wyatt Lipp | Christchurch School | 1.99 | -0.52 | 3–3 | 4.2 | −2.51 | 1.8 | 99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Christchurch School Seahorses 3 | Christchurch School Seahorses 2 | 3% | upset |
| 1 | 2 | Christchurch School Seahorses 1 | Christchurch School Seahorses 4 | 98% | |
| 1 | 3 | Christchurch School Seahorses 2 | Christchurch School Seahorses 4 | 93% | |
| 1 | 4 | Christchurch School Seahorses 1 | Christchurch School Seahorses 3 | 99% | |
| 1 | 5 | Christchurch School Seahorses 4 | Christchurch School Seahorses 3 | 72% | |
| 1 | 6 | Christchurch School Seahorses 1 | Christchurch School Seahorses 2 | 80% | |
| 2 | 7 | Christchurch School Seahorses 2 | Christchurch School Seahorses 3 | 97% | |
| 2 | 8 | Christchurch School Seahorses 1 | Christchurch School Seahorses 4 | 98% | |
| 2 | 9 | Christchurch School Seahorses 2 | Christchurch School Seahorses 4 | 92% | |
| 2 | 10 | Christchurch School Seahorses 1 | Christchurch School Seahorses 3 | 99% | |
| 2 | 11 | Christchurch School Seahorses 4 | Christchurch School Seahorses 3 | 73% | |
| 2 | 12 | Christchurch School Seahorses 1 | Christchurch School Seahorses 2 | 79% |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Seahorses 3 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahorses 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahorses 4 | 3-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahorses 4 | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahorses 3 | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Seahorses 4 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Seahorses 3 | 3-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahorses 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Seahorses 3 | 3-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahorses 4 | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahorses 4 | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahorses 3 | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Seahorses 4 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahorses 3 | 3-4-5 |
| 12 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahorses 2 | 4-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Christchurch School | Seahorses 1 | Bo Angus '25 Elliott Lipp '26 Wylder Smith '27 |
Brooke Mertz '26 Suzie Nguyen '25 Malia Deane '25 |
|
Christchurch School | Seahorses 2 | Madeline Janzen '25 Tom Seibold '26 Wyatt Lipp '28 |
Bennett Moss '26 Cherry Phan '25 Cindy Zhang '28 |
|
Christchurch School | Seahorses 4 | Adelaide Matzky '25 Chloe Shurr '25 Simone Moss '25 |
Rivers Hickey '28 Olivia Wolff '27 Emma Ho '25 |
|
Christchurch School | Seahorses 3 | Gp Keating '27 Nicholas Cromartie '27 Pierson Teer '27 |
Millicent Branflick '26 Carly Moss '28 Minh Tho Nguyen '26 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.14 means a rating gap counts about 12% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
