Christchurch School '27
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.40 (fleet 2.28) | 108 of 231 | −0.01 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 35–18 (66%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2025 | 2 | 15–2 | — |
| Spring 2025 | 2 | 12–5 | — |
| Fall 2024 | 3 | 8–11 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 7 graded regattas (53 matches) the record is 35–18 against 34.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.5). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-11 | VISA Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.67 | 2.20 | 12–1 | 11.6 | +0.53 | 0.1 | 58% |
| 2025-10-04 | VISA NCS Team Regatta II | skipper | 1.61 | 0.63 | 3–1 | 3.4 | −0.97 | 0.3 | 91% |
| 2025-04-19 | VISA Team Race Championship for Patterson Trophy | skipper | 1.56 | 1.96 | 7–5 | 6.3 | +0.40 | 0.2 | 44% |
| 2025-03-29 | VISA Poquoson Team Race Regatta | skipper | 1.68 | 4.68 | 5–0 | 4.8 | ≥+3.00 | 0.3 | 82% |
| 2024-10-08 | VISA Christchurch School Team Race | skipper | 1.62 | 2.49 | 1–5 | 0.6 | +0.86 | 0.2 | 51% |
| 2024-10-05 | VISA Team race Championship | skipper | 1.59 | 0.85 | 3–2 | 3.4 | −0.75 | 0.2 | 88% |
| 2024-09-28 | VISA HCS Team Race Regatta 2 | skipper | 1.40 | 1.07 | 4–4 | 4.4 | −0.33 | 0.1 | 77% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
To have this profile removed, email quinnbrighton2005@gmail.com.
