| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Christchurch School | Seahorses 2 | 4–0 |
| 2 | |
Christchurch School | Seahorses 1 | 3–1 |
| 3 |  |
Norfolk Academy | Bulldogs | 2–2 |
| 4 |  |
Kecoughtan High School | Warriors | 1–3 |
| 5 | |
Christchurch School | Seahorses 3 | 0–4 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 12,888 team race matches sailed before 2025-10-04, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 7 of 10 matches (70%) with a log-loss of 0.493 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.17 ± 0.70: a typical event, more orderly than 29% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christchurch School Seahorses 2 | 3.44 | 6.44 | 4–0 | 2.7 | ≥+3.00 | 2.4 | 14% |
| 3 | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs | 1.18 | 3.00 | 2–2 | 0.9 | +1.82 | 1.2 | 21% |
| 2 | Christchurch School Seahorses 1 | 4.67 | 3.70 | 3–1 | 3.4 | −0.97 | 0.3 | 91% |
| 4 | Kecoughtan High School Warriors | 2.10 | 0.92 | 1–3 | 1.7 | −1.18 | 0.4 | 92% |
| 5 | Christchurch School Seahorses 3 | 1.78 | -1.22 | 0–4 | 1.3 | ≤−3.00 | 2.3 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierson Teer | Christchurch School | 0.58 | 3.58 | 4–0 | 2.7 | ≥+3.00 | 2.4 | 14% |
| Duncan Hardy | Christchurch School | 1.60 | 4.60 | 4–0 | 2.7 | ≥+3.00 | 2.4 | 14% |
| Lucia Valdez Guzman | Christchurch School | 0.82 | 3.82 | 4–0 | 2.7 | ≥+3.00 | 2.4 | 14% |
| Mady Mcgee | Norfolk Academy | 0.82 | 2.65 | 2–2 | 0.9 | +1.82 | 1.2 | 21% |
| Amaya Buxton | Norfolk Academy | 0.43 | 1.65 | 1–2 | 0.5 | +1.22 | 0.3 | 45% |
| Andres Gago Varela | Christchurch School | 1.70 | 0.73 | 3–1 | 3.4 | −0.97 | 0.3 | 91% |
| Gp Keating | Christchurch School | 1.61 | 0.63 | 3–1 | 3.4 | −0.97 | 0.3 | 91% |
| William Chapman | Kecoughtan High School | 0.94 | -0.23 | 1–3 | 1.7 | −1.18 | 0.4 | 92% |
| Bennett Moss | Christchurch School | 0.76 | -2.24 | 0–4 | 1.3 | ≤−3.00 | 2.3 | >99% |
| Kai Raff | Christchurch School | 0.52 | -2.48 | 0–4 | 1.3 | ≤−3.00 | 2.3 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Christchurch School Seahorses 2 | Kecoughtan High School Warriors | 74% | |
| 1 | 2 | Christchurch School Seahorses 1 | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs | 94% | |
| 1 | 3 | Kecoughtan High School Warriors | Christchurch School Seahorses 3 | 58% | |
| 1 | 4 | Christchurch School Seahorses 2 | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs | 85% | |
| 1 | 5 | Christchurch School Seahorses 1 | Kecoughtan High School Warriors | 87% | |
| 1 | 6 | Christchurch School Seahorses 2 | Christchurch School Seahorses 3 | 80% | |
| 1 | 7 | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs | Kecoughtan High School Warriors | 31% | upset |
| 1 | 8 | Christchurch School Seahorses 1 | Christchurch School Seahorses 3 | 90% | |
| 1 | 9 | Christchurch School Seahorses 2 | Christchurch School Seahorses 1 | 28% | upset |
| 1 | 10 | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs | Christchurch School Seahorses 3 | 37% | upset |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Warriors | 3-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Warriors | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahorses 3 | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Warriors | 3-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahorses 3 | 3-4-5 |
| 7 | |
Bulldogs | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Warriors | 1-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahorses 3 | 3-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahorses 1 | 3-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Seahorses 3 | 3-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Christchurch School | Seahorses 2 | Duncan Hardy '27 Lucia Valdez Guzman '28 Pierson Teer '27 |
Alex Fitzhugh '27 Nancy Debaere '29 Ayden Claussen '28 |
|
Christchurch School | Seahorses 1 | Andres Gago Varela '27 Gp Keating '27 Sarah Moore '29 |
Cayetana Fernandez Sanz '28 Henry Clair '29 Paula Sancho '29 |
|
Norfolk Academy | Bulldogs | Amaya Buxton '29 Emma Tartiere-Martinez '28 Mady Mcgee '27 Mason Piccillo '29 |
Ryan Mouak '28 Soham Patel '28 Jane Earp '27 Ben Warburton '27 |
|
Kecoughtan High School | Warriors | Chase Young '28 Kieran Mason '26 William Chapman '28 |
Reagan Young '30 Sullivan Downs '28 Piper Cartwright '29 Parker Tuttle '31 Danie Greenwood '31 |
|
Christchurch School | Seahorses 3 | Bennett Moss '26 Kai Raff '27 Kaia Deane '28 |
Beau Cleaton '29 Olivia Wolff '27 Amaia Gonzalez Alvarez '29 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 9% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
