Norfolk Academy '29
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.62 (fleet 0.98) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 6–15 (29%) as crew 0–1 (0%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 1 | 2–5 | 0–1 |
| Fall 2025 | 3 | 4–10 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (20 matches) the record is 5–15 against 5.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.3). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | VISA Patterson Trophy and Team race Champs | skipper | 0.73 | -1.05 | 2–5 | 3.7 | −1.78 | 1.7 | 98% |
| 2025-10-11 | VISA Team Race Championship | skipper | 0.60 | 2.19 | 2–8 | 0.7 | +1.59 | 1.3 | 16% |
| 2025-10-04 | VISA NCS Team Regatta I | skipper | 0.59 | 1.01 | 1–2 | 0.9 | +0.42 | 0.0 | 70% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| VISA Patterson Trophy and Team race Champs | Skipper | TR | 8 | 25% | — |
| VISA Norfolk Collegiate Fleet Regatta | Skipper | B | 8 | 8.8 | -3.10 |
| VISA NA Fleet Race Regatta | Skipper | B | 2 | 11.0 | 0.59 |
| VISA Kecoughtan Fleet Race Regatta | Skipper | A | 3 | 8.0 | 1.34 |
| VISA Fleet Championship | Skipper | B | 7 | 2.6 | 2.39 |
| VISA CCS Fleet Regatta | Skipper | B | 7 | 5.9 | 1.43 |
| VISA Norfolk Academy Fleet Race Regatta 2 | Skipper | A | 8 | 14.0 | -1.02 |
| Fall 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| VISA Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 13 | 38% | — |
| VISA Poquoson JV Fleet Regatta | Skipper | A | 3 | 8.7 | -0.51 |
| VISA NCS Team Regatta I | Skipper | TR | 4 | 50% | — |
| VISA NCS Team Regatta II | Skipper | TR | 4 | 50% | — |
| VISA Fleet Championship | Skipper | B | 6 | 6.7 | 1.10 |
| VISA Christchurch Fleet Regatta | Skipper | B | 6 | 12.2 | -0.23 |
| VISA Norfolk Academy Fleet Race Regatta | Skipper | A | 5 | 11.0 | -0.03 |
| VISA Catholic HS Fleet Race Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 6.8 | 1.01 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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