| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Christchurch School | Seahorses | 4–0 |
| 2 |  |
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks | 3–1 |
| 3 |  |
Norfolk Academy | Bulldogs | 2–2 |
| 4 |  |
Hampton Roads Academy | Navigators | 1–3 |
| 5 |  |
Maury High School | Commodores | 0–4 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 12,888 team race matches sailed before 2025-10-04, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 9 of 10 matches (90%) with a log-loss of 0.221 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.48 ± 0.69: a typical event, more orderly than 74% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christchurch School | 7.06 | 10.06 | 4–0 | 3.8 | ≥+3.00 | 0.3 | 80% |
| 4 | Hampton Roads Academy | 2.03 | 3.01 | 1–3 | 0.6 | +0.98 | 0.2 | 53% |
| 2 | Norfolk Collegiate School | 4.76 | 5.72 | 3–1 | 2.7 | +0.96 | 0.2 | 64% |
| 3 | Norfolk Academy | 3.65 | 4.18 | 2–2 | 1.8 | +0.53 | 0.1 | 67% |
| 5 | Maury High School | 2.47 | -0.53 | 0–4 | 1.2 | ≤−3.00 | 2.0 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Griffith | Christchurch School | 2.00 | 5.00 | 4–0 | 3.8 | ≥+3.00 | 0.3 | 80% |
| Charlie Moore | Hampton Roads Academy | 1.29 | 2.34 | 1–2 | 0.6 | +1.05 | 0.2 | 52% |
| Madeline Monteith | Hampton Roads Academy | 0.77 | 1.74 | 1–3 | 0.6 | +0.98 | 0.2 | 53% |
| Cal King | Norfolk Collegiate School | 1.35 | 2.31 | 3–1 | 2.7 | +0.96 | 0.2 | 64% |
| Chase Duhon-Kovach | Norfolk Collegiate School | 0.96 | 1.92 | 3–1 | 2.7 | +0.96 | 0.2 | 64% |
| Brandt Adams | Norfolk Collegiate School | 2.29 | 3.25 | 3–1 | 2.7 | +0.96 | 0.2 | 64% |
| Margaret Poston | Norfolk Academy | 1.15 | 1.69 | 2–2 | 1.8 | +0.53 | 0.1 | 67% |
| Grant Fernandez | Norfolk Academy | 1.10 | 1.63 | 2–2 | 1.8 | +0.53 | 0.1 | 67% |
| Mason Piccillo | Norfolk Academy | 0.59 | 1.01 | 1–2 | 0.9 | +0.42 | 0.0 | 70% |
| Elias Bowes | Maury High School | 0.26 | -2.74 | 0–4 | 1.2 | ≤−3.00 | 2.0 | >99% |
| Samuel Rogge | Maury High School | 0.48 | -2.52 | 0–4 | 1.2 | ≤−3.00 | 2.0 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Oaks | 3-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Commodores | 3-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Navigators | 3-4-5 |
| 4 | |
Oaks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Commodores | 3-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Oaks | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Navigators | 1-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Navigators | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Commodores | 3-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Oaks | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Commodores | 1-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Navigators | 3-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Christchurch School | Seahorses | Aaron Griffith '27 Elliott Lipp '26 Sam De Los Reyes '26 |
Millicent Branflick '26 Cara Moss '26 Rivers Hickey '28 |
|
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks | Brandt Adams '30 Cal King '27 Chase Duhon-Kovach '29 |
Michael Wattenbarger '27 David Murphy '30 Liara Boardman '31 |
|
Norfolk Academy | Bulldogs | Grant Fernandez '27 James Allgeier '27 Margaret Poston '28 Mason Piccillo '29 |
Will Poynter '27 Eliana Mopper '26 Juliana Libby '28 David Martin '26 |
|
Hampton Roads Academy | Navigators | Charlie Moore '27 Josie Brindley '26 Madeline Monteith '29 Nicholas Bielewicz '26 |
Daphne Ambrosino '27 Jack Duggan '28 Patrick Bielewicz '28 Nicholas Bielewicz '26 |
|
Maury High School | Commodores | Elias Bowes '27 Samuel Rogge '28 Tucker Mcgrady '26 |
Cooper Longhini '28 Colin Moorhouse '27 Lenox Wakefield '27 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 9% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
