Norfolk Collegiate School '27
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.20 (fleet 2.00) | 132 of 231 | −0.03 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 24–26 (48%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2025 | 1 | 3–1 | — |
| Fall 2023 | 4 | 9–15 | — |
| Fall 2022 | 1 | 8–5 | — |
| Fall 2021 | 1 | 4–5 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 7 graded regattas (50 matches) the record is 24–26 against 24.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.1). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 5 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-04 | VISA NCS Team Regatta I | skipper | 1.35 | 2.31 | 3–1 | 2.7 | +0.96 | 0.2 | 64% |
| 2023-10-14 | MASSA Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.57 | 1.00 | 2–3 | 2.5 | −0.57 | 0.1 | 83% |
| 2023-10-07 | VISA Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.56 | 1.12 | 2–4 | 2.3 | −0.44 | 0.1 | 82% |
| 2023-10-04 | VISA Southside Team Race Series #2 | skipper | 1.61 | -1.51 | 1–7 | 3.4 | −3.12 | 3.6 | >99% |
| 2023-09-21 | VISA Southside Team Race Series #1 | skipper | 1.58 | 1.77 | 4–1 | 3.9 | +0.19 | 0.0 | 72% |
| 2022-09-17 | VISA Maury Team Race Regatta | skipper | 1.34 | 2.43 | 8–5 | 6.1 | +1.08 | 1.1 | 17% |
| 2021-10-23 | VISA Team Race Championship and Qualifier | skipper | 1.17 | 1.81 | 4–5 | 3.3 | +0.64 | 0.3 | 43% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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