| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Christchurch School | Seahorses 1 | 6–2 |
| 2 |  |
Norfolk Academy | Bulldogs 1 | 6–2 |
| 3 |  |
Hampton Roads Academy | Navigators | 6–2 |
| 4 | |
Christchurch School | Seahorses 2 | 2–3 |
| 5 |  |
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks | 1–7 |
| 6 | |
Norfolk Academy | Bulldogs 2 | 0–5 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 10,397 team race matches sailed before 2023-10-04, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 16 of 21 matches (76%) with a log-loss of 0.486 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.24 ± 0.52: a typical event, more orderly than 26% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christchurch School Seahorses 1 | 5.42 | 7.95 | 6–2 | 3.0 | +2.53 | 4.2 | 2% |
| 3 | Hampton Roads Academy Navigators | 7.12 | 7.39 | 6–2 | 5.7 | +0.27 | 0.0 | 59% |
| 2 | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1 | 7.43 | 7.28 | 6–2 | 6.1 | −0.15 | 0.0 | 73% |
| 4 | Christchurch School Seahorses 2 | 5.77 | 4.99 | 2–3 | 2.5 | −0.78 | 0.2 | 86% |
| 6 | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 2 | 2.07 | -0.93 | 0–5 | 0.2 | ≤−3.00 | 0.3 | >99% |
| 5 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks | 5.69 | 2.57 | 1–7 | 3.4 | −3.12 | 3.6 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Angus | Christchurch School | 0.44 | 2.96 | 6–2 | 3.0 | +2.53 | 4.2 | 2% |
| Jordan Viera | Christchurch School | 2.19 | 4.71 | 6–2 | 3.0 | +2.53 | 4.2 | 2% |
| Wylder Smith | Christchurch School | 2.27 | 1.49 | 2–3 | 2.5 | −0.78 | 0.2 | 86% |
| Nathaniel Bonham | Christchurch School | 1.21 | 0.43 | 2–3 | 2.5 | −0.78 | 0.2 | 86% |
| Hunter Wheary | Norfolk Academy | 1.63 | -0.36 | 2–2 | 3.3 | −2.00 | 1.6 | 98% |
| Charlie Moore | Norfolk Academy | 0.44 | -2.56 | 0–5 | 0.2 | ≤−3.00 | 0.3 | >99% |
| Alex Salzberg | Norfolk Academy | 0.44 | -2.56 | 0–5 | 0.2 | ≤−3.00 | 0.3 | >99% |
| Margaret Poston | Norfolk Academy | 0.70 | -2.30 | 0–3 | 0.1 | ≤−3.00 | 0.1 | >99% |
| Cal King | Norfolk Collegiate School | 1.61 | -1.51 | 1–7 | 3.4 | −3.12 | 3.6 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Navigators | 3-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Oaks | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Navigators | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahorses 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 5 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Oaks | 3-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Oaks | 3-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Navigators | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs 1 | 2-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Oaks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Navigators | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Seahorses 1 | 2-3-6 |
| 13 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Navigators | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Oaks | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahorses 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Navigators | 3-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Oaks | 4-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Navigators | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Oaks | 2-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs 1 | 3-4-6 |
| 20 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Oaks | 3-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Navigators | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Seahorses 1 | 2-4-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Christchurch School | Seahorses 1 | Jordan Viera '24 Owen Grainger '24 William Angus '25 |
Alders Kulynych-Irvin '25 Simone Moss '25 Paul &Quot;Pj&Quot; Rodrigues Jr '24 |
|
Norfolk Academy | Bulldogs 1 | Eliana Mopper '26 Hunter Wheary '24 James Allgeier '27 Sean Trudell '24 |
Jack Poynter '25 Addie Lesley '26 Sabrina Casagrande '25 Marin Soderberg '24 Anna Iacobucci '25 Amanda Wong '25 |
|
Hampton Roads Academy | Navigators | Leila Pfrang '25 Parker Moore '25 Pierce Brindley '24 |
Joseph Buxton '27 Nicholas Bielewicz '26 Josie Brindley '26 Daphne Ambrosino '27 |
|
Christchurch School | Seahorses 2 | Elliott Lipp '26 Nathaniel Bonham '24 Wylder Smith '27 |
Bennet Moss '26 Duncan Hardy '27 Cameron Kinnear '24 |
|
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks | Cal King '27 Kiana Beachy '24 Maddie Murphy '25 |
Tucker Peltier '26 Finian Bohan '27 Emma Horton '25 |
|
Norfolk Academy | Bulldogs 2 | Alex Salzberg '25 Charlie Moore '27 Mady Mcgee '27 Margaret Poston '28 |
Brandt Adams '28 Eraj Zaidi '25 Iro Catravas '25 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
