Christchurch School '24
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.14 (fleet 3.42) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.03 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 52–21 (71%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2023 | 3 | 19–5 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 3 | 13–6 | — |
| Fall 2022 | 1 | 11–2 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 1 | 4–1 | — |
| Fall 2021 | 1 | 5–7 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 8 graded regattas (72 matches) the record is 51–21 against 49.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.5). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 8 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-14 | MASSA Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.65 | 4.10 | 5–1 | 3.9 | +1.45 | 0.8 | 30% |
| 2023-10-07 | VISA Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.68 | 3.10 | 8–2 | 7.6 | +0.42 | 0.1 | 53% |
| 2023-10-04 | VISA Southside Team Race Series #2 | skipper | 2.54 | 5.06 | 6–2 | 3.0 | +2.53 | 4.2 | 2% |
| 2023-04-22 | VISA Team Championship | skipper | 2.41 | 2.38 | 4–2 | 4.0 | −0.03 | 0.0 | 71% |
| 2023-03-18 | VISA Maury Team Race Regatta | skipper | 2.43 | 1.92 | 8–4 | 8.8 | −0.51 | 0.2 | 83% |
| 2022-09-17 | VISA Maury Team Race Regatta | skipper | 2.08 | 2.29 | 11–2 | 10.8 | +0.20 | 0.0 | 60% |
| 2022-04-23 | VISA Team Championship | skipper | 2.04 | 2.62 | 4–1 | 3.9 | +0.58 | 0.0 | 78% |
| 2021-10-23 | VISA Team Race Championship and Qualifier | skipper | 1.84 | -0.05 | 5–7 | 7.6 | −1.89 | 2.8 | 99% |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Owen Grainger |  University of Rhode Island |
'28 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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