| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Christchurch School | Seahorses 1 | 10–2 |
| 2 | |
Christchurch School | Seahorses 2 | 8–4 |
| 3 |  |
Norfolk Academy | Bulldogs 1 | 8–4 |
| 4 | |
Norfolk Academy | Bulldogs 2 | 7–5 |
| 5 |  |
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks | 6–6 |
| 6 |  |
The Hague School | Tritons | 7–4 |
| 7 |  |
Grafton High School | Clippers | 2–9 |
| 8 |  |
Poquoson High School | Islanders | 2–9 |
| 9 |  |
Maury High School | Commodores | 2–9 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 9,213 team race matches sailed before 2023-03-18, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 40 of 52 matches (77%) with a log-loss of 0.469 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.09 ± 0.33: a typical event, more orderly than 45% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | The Hague School Tritons | 4.31 | 5.72 | 7–4 | 4.9 | +1.41 | 1.7 | 12% |
| 5 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks | 4.79 | 5.89 | 6–6 | 4.2 | +1.10 | 1.1 | 17% |
| 3 | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1 | 5.97 | 6.71 | 8–4 | 6.7 | +0.74 | 0.5 | 31% |
| 1 | Christchurch School Seahorses 1 | 7.54 | 7.81 | 10–2 | 9.7 | +0.26 | 0.0 | 58% |
| 4 | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 2 | 6.39 | 6.05 | 7–5 | 7.6 | −0.35 | 0.1 | 78% |
| 2 | Christchurch School Seahorses 2 | 7.08 | 6.57 | 8–4 | 8.8 | −0.51 | 0.2 | 83% |
| 8 | Poquoson High School Islanders | 3.27 | 2.52 | 2–9 | 3.0 | −0.75 | 0.4 | 86% |
| 7 | Grafton High School Clippers | 3.41 | 2.48 | 2–9 | 3.3 | −0.93 | 0.6 | 90% |
| 9 | Maury High School Commodores | 3.70 | 2.41 | 2–9 | 3.8 | −1.30 | 1.3 | 95% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Salzberg | Norfolk Collegiate School | 0.73 | 1.83 | 6–6 | 4.2 | +1.10 | 1.1 | 17% |
| Audrey Permenter | Norfolk Academy | 1.90 | 2.64 | 8–4 | 6.7 | +0.74 | 0.5 | 31% |
| James Savage | Norfolk Academy | 0.95 | 1.53 | 6–4 | 5.2 | +0.57 | 0.3 | 40% |
| Jeffrey "Jj" Klempen | Christchurch School | 2.34 | 2.60 | 10–2 | 9.7 | +0.26 | 0.0 | 58% |
| Madeline Janzen | Christchurch School | 2.52 | 2.79 | 10–2 | 9.7 | +0.26 | 0.0 | 58% |
| Guillem Balaguer Soler | Christchurch School | 1.77 | 1.26 | 8–4 | 8.8 | −0.51 | 0.2 | 83% |
| Rafael "Rafa" De Tomas Pereda | Christchurch School | 2.50 | 1.99 | 8–4 | 8.8 | −0.51 | 0.2 | 83% |
| Hunter Wheary | Norfolk Academy | 1.27 | 0.62 | 5–5 | 6.0 | −0.65 | 0.4 | 86% |
| Cam Brewer | Poquoson High School | 1.21 | 0.46 | 2–9 | 3.0 | −0.75 | 0.4 | 86% |
| Aubrey Walton | Poquoson High School | 0.96 | 0.21 | 2–9 | 3.0 | −0.75 | 0.4 | 86% |
| Felix Susta | Grafton High School | 0.45 | -0.48 | 4–18 | 6.5 | −0.93 | 1.2 | 94% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs 2 | 1-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Tritons | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Oaks | 3-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Commodores | 3-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Islanders | 4-5-6 DNS |
| 5 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Clippers | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Tritons | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Commodores | 3-4-5 |
| 7 | |
Oaks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahorses 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 8 | |
Bulldogs 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Islanders | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Clippers | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Tritons | 3-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Commodores | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Bulldogs 2 | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Oaks | 2-3-6 |
| 13 | |
Islanders | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Clippers | 1-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tritons | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahorses 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 16 | |
Bulldogs 2 | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Commodores | 2-4-5 |
| 17 | |
Oaks | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Clippers | 2-4-5 |
| 18 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Islanders | 4-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Tritons | 3-4-6 |
| 20 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Commodores | 3-4-5 |
| 21 | |
Bulldogs 2 | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Clippers | 2-4-6 |
| 22 | |
Oaks | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Islanders | 2-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Seahorses 1 | 2-4-5 |
| 24 | |
Bulldogs 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Tritons | 3-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Clippers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Commodores | 4-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Islanders | 3-4-5 |
| 27 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Oaks | 3-4-6 |
| 28 | |
Bulldogs 2 | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Seahorses 2 | 2-4-5 |
| 29 | |
Tritons | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Clippers | 2-4-6 |
| 30 | |
Islanders | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Commodores | 1-4-6 |
| 31 | |
Oaks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs 1 | 3-4-6 |
| 32 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 33 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Clippers | 2-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Tritons | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Islanders | 1-5-6 |
| 35 | |
Oaks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Commodores | 3-4-6 |
| 36 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bulldogs 1 | 3-4-5 |
| 37 | |
Clippers | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Islanders | 2-4-5 |
| 38 | |
Tritons | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Commodores | 1-5-6 |
| 39 | |
Commodores | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Islanders | 2-4-6 |
| 40 | |
Tritons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Clippers | 4-5-6 |
| 41 | |
Commodores | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Clippers | 3-4-6 |
| 42 | |
Tritons | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Islanders | 1-5-6 |
| 43 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Oaks | 4-5-6 |
| 44 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 45 | |
Oaks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahorses 1 | 3-4-6 |
| 46 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs 1 | 3-5-6 |
| 47 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bulldogs 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 48 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Oaks | 2-5-6 |
| 49 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bulldogs 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 50 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahorses 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 51 | |
Bulldogs 2 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Oaks | 1-5-6 |
| 52 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs 1 | 3-4-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
